Peter Boockvar Warns Gold Is Being Treated Like an AI Stock: What to Watch Next

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

"Gold is treated like an AI stock today, which it's not," Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners told Kitco News on October 30, 2026. The data back him for one stretch. Spot gold fell 3.52% that day as a technology-led selloff hit stocks, Kitco reported. On November 5, the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and gold rose 0.64%. That split points to a selling pattern that comes and goes, so rates and the dollar carry more weight for gold than the AI link does.

What did Peter Boockvar say about gold and AI stocks?

Boockvar, the firm's chief investment officer, spoke with Kitco News at the New Orleans Investment Conference, and Kitco published the interview on November 4. OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners is a registered investment adviser that manages client portfolios, and Boockvar also sells a paid daily newsletter on markets.

His case ran in this order. He said the October 30 drop did not look like a broken investment case. "Gold's not trading on its own fundamentals. There's a forced seller out there, whether it's margin-driven or whatever," he told Kitco. A forced seller is someone who has to sell to raise cash. A common cause is a margin call, which is a broker's demand for more cash after losses on borrowed money.

He then said gold had moved in an "unusual tight correlation" with the S&P 500 in recent weeks, as if it were part of the technology trade, Kitco reported. A correlation measures how closely two prices move together. That is where his AI-stock line came from.

Next, he was waiting for third-quarter central bank buying and hoped for "another 200-plus-ton quarterly purchase." The World Gold Council reported 321 tonnes on November 3. He also said the two forces that held gold back this year were turning. Real interest rates, meaning bond yields after inflation, "are now rolling over," he said. He called the dollar "very vulnerable" because "the whole world is long US tech stocks."

On the Federal Reserve, he called the September 16 rate increase "a tweak" and said a December increase, if it came, would be one too. He argued that the AI selloff has become a factor the Fed must weigh. He also said gold miners trade with the metal for now. "An algo trades a gold stock with the price, and they're just stuck at the hip," he said. An algo is a computer program that buys and sells automatically.

What do the price and positioning data show?

The strongest evidence is the price path itself. Kitco's October 30 afternoon report had spot gold near $3,879.90, down $141.60 on the session. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% as Intel and other technology shares sold off. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 4.93% that day.

Lower yields usually help gold, because they shrink the interest an investor gives up by holding a metal that pays none. Gold fell anyway. Kitco wrote that "broader financial-market liquidation was the more immediate influence" on Friday's trading. Liquidation here means selling holdings to raise cash. MINING.COM said trading was heavy, with futures on a nominal 18 million ounces of gold changing hands on the Comex by midday. CMR flagged the same margin-call pattern a week earlier in Gold Hit By Margin Calls?

Fund data show where some of that selling came from. North American gold exchange-traded funds lost $512 million in October, the only region with outflows, the World Gold Council reported on November 5. The council said technology-stock stress "may have contributed to the region's gold ETF outflows as some investors turned to their gold holdings as a ready source of liquidity." Global gold ETFs still added $2.7 billion in the month, led by Europe.

Futures traders cut back too. The council said net long positions held by managed money on the Comex fell 53 tonnes in October. Managed money is the category for hedge funds and commodity trading advisers. A net long position means bets on higher prices outnumber bets on lower ones. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's report for October 27 showed that group holding 122,508 long contracts against 16,946 short.

Expected swings jumped as well. Cboe's Gold ETF Volatility Index, a gauge built from options on a gold fund, rose to 26.15 on October 30 from 22.73 the day before, according to FRED data.

Then came the test. On November 5, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36%, its steepest daily decline since April 2025, Kitco reported. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 12%. Spot gold finished near $4,087.26, up 0.64%, after touching $4,148.00 earlier. Kitco said gold retreated from that high as the stock selloff deepened, so the link did not vanish. Gold still ended a heavy AI selloff higher, as the 10-year yield fell to about 4.82%.

Is gold becoming a speculative investment?

Part of the gold market has behaved that way. Benjamin Graham drew the line in The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 8. "The speculator's primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations," he wrote. "The investor's primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices."

The World Gold Council, a membership body of 29 gold mining companies, said October's fall likely came from "asset rotation, de-grossing and Fed rate-path repricing." De-grossing means funds cutting both their bets and their borrowing at once. The council added that "Much of the selling may have been derivatives-led." Derivatives are contracts such as futures and options that track gold without delivering the metal.

The council also judged that short-term positioning has further to unwind. "Positioning, however, remains elevated," it wrote on November 5. "Speculative froth has not yet been fully cleared." That suggests futures traders have not fully unwound their bets.

The largest buyers this year look different. Central banks bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, up 42% from a year earlier, the council's Gold Demand Trends report said. Gold ETFs added 211 tonnes over the same quarter. By October 31, global ETF holdings had reached a month-end record of 4,275 tonnes. CMR covered that report in World Gold Council's Q3 2026 Gold Demand Report: 5 Key Takeaways.

So is gold becoming a speculative investment? On this evidence, the futures side has traded like a speculative asset during stock selloffs. Central banks bought heavily in the third quarter, and global gold ETFs kept adding metal through October's drop.

Why is gold price volatility increasing in 2026?

The volatility gauge shows the change clearly. By CMR's count of FRED daily closes, Cboe's gold index averaged 16.04 in 2024. The 2025 average was 19.50. This year's average through November 4 was 28.04. Its 2026 peak was 46.02 on January 29.

The council's figures put the record afternoon London price at $5,405 on January 29, 2026. Gold finished October at $3,913, down 6.3% for the month, the council said. MINING.COM said October was on track to be gold's worst October since 2008. CMR laid out analysts' differing views on that gold price correction in Gold Price Correction: Could It Get Worse?

Three forces in the sources explain the wider swings. The first is the Fed. It raised its benchmark rate on September 16 for the first time since 2023, Kitco said, and hike odds keep moving. Kitco put the chance of a December increase at about 83% on Wednesday, November 4. By Thursday it was about 66% to 69%.

The second is oil. Brent crude settled at $117.64 a barrel on October 30 after another tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, Kitco reported. Brent fell more than 8% on November 4. It then rose 3.88% to $98.29 on November 5 after renewed attacks on shipping. Higher oil feeds inflation worries, which support the case for higher rates.

The third is selling for cash during stock drops, which ties gold to the AI trade on bad days. The council also flagged an "unusual pattern" in October, with gold and yields moving in the same direction. Together, they help explain why gold's swings have stayed wide since January.

What is Peter Boockvar's outlook on gold prices?

Boockvar's outlook rests on fundamentals he sees turning in gold's favour. He said the October 30 drop looked like forced selling. He pointed to central bank buying, falling real rates and a weaker dollar as supports. He also described the recent weakness as a "corrective phase." CMR does not repeat his comments on where prices go next.

Kitco's own reporting said the data "have cut both ways" since his interview. US job openings rose to 7.52 million in September, the Labor Department reported, which Kitco said gives the Fed room to focus on inflation. Chipmaker AMD also forecast fourth-quarter revenue above analyst estimates, a sign AI spending is holding up.

What changes for gold in 2026 if it keeps trading with tech stocks?

Spot gold was $4,048.97 an ounce at 1:24 a.m. Eastern on Friday, Investing.com reported. That was down 1% on the session. The U.S. Dollar Index tracks the dollar against six major currencies. It rose 0.2% to 101.80. CNBC put the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.83% at 4:34 a.m. Eastern. CNBC also said traders saw a 68% chance of a December Fed increase, citing CME's FedWatch tool.

CMR covered Thursday's labor data in Gold Near $4,100 as Jobless Claims Fall. If gold keeps trading with technology stocks on bad days, sharp equity drops can pull it lower even when yields fall. Investing.com said gold "remains vulnerable to equity-market liquidations as investors sell assets to cover losses elsewhere." On November 5, lower yields and lower hike odds outweighed that pull.

Bank forecasts have moved with the Fed. Goldman Sachs, which sells research and financial services, cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650 on Thursday, CNBC reported. Goldman cited the Fed's more hawkish stance, meaning its leaning toward higher rates. That is one published bank target. CMR covered a different bank view in State Street's Gold View After the Sell-Off.

The council's gold market outlook for 2026 frames the fourth quarter as a contest. It wrote that "higher policy rates, bond yields and a stronger US dollar could weigh on demand, while fiscal concerns, inflation risks, geopolitics and financial market stress may provide support." The risks in that list are live now. Tanker attacks near Hormuz continued on November 5, and hike odds sat near 68% early Friday.

What do these gold facts mean for income and risk?

Boockvar's sharpest warning was about concentration in stocks. "Imagine a financial advisor walking into a room of retirees and saying: 'I have a great idea. We're gonna put half your retirement fund in one idea,'" he told Kitco. Figures cited by the Financial Times show five stocks produced more than half of the S&P 500's return in the first nine months of 2026, Kitco reported. October 30 showed gold can fall with those stocks on a bad day.

Gold also pays no interest or dividend. Benjamin Graham made the point in The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 2. He wrote that "the holder of gold has received no income return on his capital, and instead has incurred some annual expense for storage." Any return on bullion comes from the gap between buying and selling prices, less costs.

Three common routes carry different risks.

• Physical metal tracks the bullion price most directly, with storage, insurance and dealer markups as costs.
• A gold miner adds company risk, such as costs, debt and politics where it operates. CMR's October 26 market note said the GDX fund of gold producers fell 8.6% in the week the metal dropped 4.1%. Some miners pay dividends, but those depend on profits.
• An exchange-traded fund can hold bullion or mining shares. Fees and tracking gaps matter, and October showed fund holders selling for cash in a stock rout.

Those facts mean bullion carries price swings with no income, and miners add company risk on top.

How I read it. Boockvar's description fits October 30, when gold fell with technology shares even as yields dropped. The fund outflows, futures selling and volatility jump that week support his forced-seller view. On this evidence, the AI-stock link shows up on days when investors need cash, and it loosened on November 5. The sources give rates, the dollar and oil more weight for gold's path in 2026. The futures positioning data will show whether the selling has run its course.

What to watch

• October nonfarm payrolls, November 6, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The report is due this morning, and Dow Jones economists expect 59,000 jobs, CNBC said. Kitco said strong hiring or wages could reverse Thursday's bond rally, which helped gold. CMR covered a past jobs-driven move in Gold Erupts On Weak U.S. Jobs.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders, November 6, 2026, 3:30 p.m. Eastern. This release carries positions as of Tuesday, November 3. It shows whether managed money kept cutting gold bets, the clear-out the council said has not finished.
• October CPI, November 10, 2026 (BLS). Hotter inflation with firm oil would support the case for another Fed increase.
• October Personal Income and Outlays, November 25, 2026 (BEA). This report includes PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which feeds the rate expectations behind gold.
• FOMC meeting, December 8 to 9, 2026. The decision shows whether the Fed weighs the AI selloff, as Boockvar argued it must.

Related reading on CMR: Bawden Capital's View on the Gold and Silver Selloff; Gold Reclaims $4,000 After the Midterms.

FAQ

Is gold becoming a speculative investment?

Futures trading in gold behaved speculatively during October's stock selloff, and the World Gold Council said positioning "remains elevated." Central banks bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, and global gold ETFs added metal in October. The answer depends on which buyers you look at.

Why is gold price volatility increasing in 2026?

Cboe's gold volatility index averaged 28.04 this year through November 4, by CMR's count of FRED data. Its 2025 average was 19.50. Shifting Fed hike odds, oil shocks around the Strait of Hormuz and selling for cash during stock drops explain the wider swings in these sources.

What is Peter Boockvar's outlook on gold prices?

Boockvar told Kitco on October 30 that gold's drop below $4,000 looked like forced selling, with gold "treated like an AI stock." He pointed to central bank buying, falling real rates and a weaker dollar as supports. CMR does not repeat his comments on where prices go next.

Sources

1. Jeremy Szafron, "Gold is being treated 'like an AI stock, which it's not,' says Peter Boockvar," Kitco News, November 4, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-04/gold-being-treated-ai-stock-which-its-not-says-peter-boockvar
2. Kitco NewsWire, "Gold falls below $3,900, silver tumbles as Wall Street selloff triggers liquidation," Kitco News, October 30, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-30/gold-falls-below-3900-silver-tumbles-wall-street-selloff-triggers
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