Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Friday, November 13, 2026
Rick Rule said on November 6 that he is adding to gold mining shares. His reason is value: on his own measure, he called the sector as cheap as at any time in his career. He also warned that gold and gold shares could fall first. In short, the Rick Rule gold stocks case has two halves, and this piece tests both against the dated numbers.
The word "collapse" in the episode title is Kitco's wording, and Rule's own word for the market was "malaise." The figures show a large price fall from February, while miners held up against gold and margins narrowed but stayed wide.
What did Rick Rule say in his latest interview?
Rick Rule's latest interview was with Paul Harris on Kitco Mining. It was recorded on Friday, November 6, 2026, when Harris said on air, "Today is Friday, November the 6th." Kitco published it on November 11 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
CMR already covered the "cheapest of my career" claim and its long history in Cheap on What? Rick Rule and Gold Mining Stocks. This piece looks at the week since and at three tests of the word in the title.
Rule's value claim was about gold equities "relative to the gold price." He described his measure as "the net present value of current cash flows at future gold prices, adding back the prospective value of proven pipelines... relative to enterprise value."
On that measure, he said, "the gold sector is right now as cheap as it's been at any point in time in my career."
In plain words, the measure asks what a miner's cash flows and proven projects are worth today. It sets that against the cost of buying the whole company, debt included. Rule said "future gold prices," so the measure does not use today's spot price. He gave no number for it.
Why is Rick Rule buying gold stocks?
Harris asked whether this was a time to be "shopping for mining stocks." Rule answered about himself: "I'm certainly doing that."
He went on: "I'm adding... to my holdings both of physical gold... and of the gold mining shares." CMR has not seen any later trade or filing.
He gave two reasons: the valuation measure above and his long-run view. "Given that I personally am a believer in strongly higher nominal gold prices," he said, "...I think the outlook for the gold industry is good."
He also drew on experience: "But I've learned in 50 years in these markets, sometimes things are cheap enough." He said: "I'm using this hiatus... malaise... in the gold equities markets to add to my positions."
He added: "I'm... buying the waterfront."
Which Rick Rule gold stock picks did he name, by category?
Rule described his range in categories, from what he called "the sterling ones" to "the developers" and, "when I have the opportunity, the explorers too."
For the first group he named Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious and Agnico as examples of the sterling companies.
Beyond those three, this piece uses categories: royalty and streaming companies, producers, developers and explorers. CMR covered streaming in its post on his one pick for most investors.
BNN Bloomberg's November 2 disclosure table showed family ownership for the first two of those names. CMR covered that list in its November 5 post on his picks, and does not repeat it here.
How far did gold mining stocks fall in 2026?
The first test is price, using Yahoo Finance closes, by CMR's calculation. Each 2026 high and low is a closing level, and the latest is the November 12 close.
| Instrument (November 12 close) | Below 2026 closing high | Above 2026 closing low |
|---|---|---|
| GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF), $81.84 | 29.4% (February 27, $115.84) | 15.7% (July 20, $70.74) |
| GDXJ (VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF), $99.62 | 36.2% (February 27, $156.19) | 8.7% (July 20, $91.66) |
| NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), 684.80 | 30.0% (February 27, 978.87) | 16.3% (July 20, 588.79) |
| GLD (SPDR Gold Shares), $354.89 | 28.4% (January 29, $495.90) | 0.0% (November 12 was its 2026 low) |
A fall of about 30% from February is large.
But the miners are still above their July lows, and gold is not. GLD's November 12 close was its lowest close of 2026.
Year to date, by CMR's calculation from December 31, 2025 closes, GDX was down 4.6% and GDXJ down 12.4%. GLD was down 10.5%, and HUI down 2.4%.
The week after the interview, Rule's warning that prices "could go lower" played out. From the November 6 close to the November 12 close, GDX fell 6.6% and GDXJ fell 7.5%, by CMR's calculation.
Over the same days, HUI fell 7.1% and GLD fell 4.7%, by CMR's calculation. One week says nothing about whether he is right over years.
How have gold mining stocks done against gold?
The second test is price against gold, through the GDX/GLD ratio: how many GLD shares one GDX share buys. It uses Yahoo closes, price only, with dividends left out.
By CMR's calculation, the ratio was 0.231 on November 12. It was 0.216 at the end of 2025 and 0.235 on November 6.
In 2026 the daily ratio ranged from 0.192 on July 20 to 0.247 on September 3, by CMR's calculation.
Of 154 month-end readings from January 2014 to October 2026, only 4 were at or above the November 12 level, by CMR's calculation.
So gold mining stocks fell hard from their February highs, but GLD fell about as far from its own January high. Against the metal, the miners have held up.
What do gold mining stock valuations show?
The third test is valuation, where the measure matters. Rule calls the sector cheap on his cash-flow measure, while others who describe undervalued gold stocks use other measures.
Sprott: a multiple that fell as profits rose
EV/EBITDA divides a company's value, debt included, by a year of operating profit.
Sprott's Kenny Zhu covered the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) in an October 7 report. He wrote that its forward EV/EBITDA had "compressed to 5.7X, down from a peak of 9.9X in June 2014."
The same report put 12-month forward earnings per share expectations at $219.77 on September 30, 2026. That was up from about $49.60 at the end of 2023.
A multiple can fall because prices drop or because profits rise. Sprott's earnings figure rose more than fourfold from the end of 2023, by CMR's calculation, which helps explain the low multiple. They are September 30 figures, from before the November drop in gold.
Scotiabank: price against asset value
P/NAV compares a share price with a bank's estimate of the value of a miner's assets. Below 1.0 means the market pays less than that estimate.
On August 26, The Globe and Mail's Scott Barlow quoted Scotiabank analyst Tanya Jakusconek.
Gold producers traded "at 0.91 times P/NAV and FCF yields of 6.3 per cent, 6.7 times EV/EBITDA for 2027 at spot gold prices," she wrote.
She put streamers at "1.88 times P/NAV," with a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. These are August figures, set when gold was far higher, so they give context only.
World Gold Council: tighter margins
On November 10, the World Gold Council's Oliver Blagden said miners' costs hit a record in the second quarter of 2026. All-in sustaining costs (AISC), the full cost of keeping a mine running, reached $1,930 an ounce, with an average margin of $2,582.
Spot gold was $3,887.90 bid at 6:31 a.m. ET on November 13, up $11.50 or 0.30% from Kitco's 5:00 p.m. ET close. Kitco's page clock read 11:31 a.m., which is UTC.
By CMR's calculation, that spot price is about $1,958 above the council's second-quarter AISC. This is a gap at today's spot, which differs from a reported quarterly margin.
It is smaller than the second-quarter margin of $2,582. That is what tighter margins look like: a narrower cushion that is still wide.
Is now a good time to buy gold stocks?
CMR does not answer yes or no. It sets out what Rule said, then the data, then the risks.
Rule said the sector is as cheap as at any point in his career, on his cash-flow measure. In the same answer, he said: "I'm of the belief that the gold price and the gold equities prices could go lower."
On valuation, the data cut both ways. Sprott's multiple sits below its 2014 peak, and Scotiabank put producers below 1.0 times P/NAV. Both readings date from September and August, before gold's November fall.
The World Gold Council's figures come from a record-cost quarter, and today's gap above AISC is smaller than that quarter's margin. Against gold, the GDX/GLD ratio sits near the top of its range since 2014.
Then there are the risks Rule named: "Periods of higher nominal interest rates... historically have not been good for gold."
He added: "To the extent that nominal rates go up, I suspect that the gold price goes down, I suspect that the gold share price goes down."
Those rates are rising: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10% on November 12, up from 4.88% on November 9, US Treasury data show.
The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, and its next decision is December 9. Late on November 12, Kitco put CME FedWatch odds at about 85% for a quarter-point December hike and 15% for a half point.
Prices have also moved since he spoke: GDX fell 6.6% in the week after the interview and stands 29.4% below its February high, by CMR's calculation.
On the gold market outlook 2026, each figure is the institution's own estimate. Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold target to $4,150 an ounce on November 5, Reuters reported. Its end-2027 target is $4,800.
The World Bank's yearly average forecasts are $4,600 for 2026 and $4,250 for 2027. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders gave median yearly averages of $4,495 for 2026 and $4,650 for 2027.
A 2026 yearly average includes the high prices of early 2026. So it can sit above today's price without implying any rise from here.
Timing depends on each reader's own situation, goals and tolerance for loss, and CMR does not give advice.
What is Rick Rule's outlook on gold mining stocks?
Rule's outlook is about value, and he set no timing. Over the long run he expects "strongly higher nominal gold prices" and said "the outlook for the gold industry is good."
In the near term, he said rising nominal rates could pull gold and gold shares down.
On junior gold mining stocks, he said investment banks had not called him with offerings for seven or eight months.
In the past two weeks, he said, he was "getting phone calls five or six a day, which tells me that the financing window has slammed shut." CMR covered his earlier comments in its post on the junior window.
Asked whether juniors suit an investor, he said it "Depends on who you are." He spoke of being "willing to accept volatility and risk."
Rule also described a seasonal pattern from past years, in which tax-loss selling hits juniors into year-end and selling eases between January 15 and the PDAC convention.
Harris said a chart of GDX's top 25 holdings showed them 12% to 58% below their highs of the past year. That is Harris's figure, and CMR did not verify it.
How I read it. Rule's message has two halves, and the headline Kitco chose keeps only one. He says the sector is cheap on cash flow, and that gold and gold shares could fall first if rates rise. The week after he spoke, both halves showed up: prices fell, and his valuation case did not change. The word "collapse" fits the drop from February. It does not fit miners against gold, where they have held up, or multiples that sit low while profits have climbed. For a sound-money reader, owning metal and owning a business that digs it are different cases. The business carries its own risks: costs, jurisdictions, dilution and financing.
Who has a stake in these views?
Rule is President and CEO of Rule Investment Media, which publishes the Rule Classroom. He hosts the paid Rule Symposium, next held July 5 to 9, 2027, at The Boca Raton, his Substack says, adding that Paul Harris livestreamed the 2026 event. Rule closed the interview with: "I look forward to seeing you at our conference in Boca Raton."
Rule said in the interview that he is adding to his own gold and gold-share holdings. Sprott and VanEck sell gold-mining funds, and VanEck runs GDX and GDXJ. Scotiabank and Goldman Sachs sell research, and BNN Bloomberg publishes Rule's picks.
What to watch: which dates could test both halves of Rule's view?
- Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US producer price index (PPI) for October. It was not out at publish time.
- Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: personal income and outlays for October, including the PCE price index.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting, with the rate decision on December 9. This is the rate risk Rule named.
- Thursday, December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US consumer price index for November.
FAQ
Why is Rick Rule buying gold stocks?
Rule said on November 6, 2026 that he is adding to his holdings of physical gold and gold mining shares. He said that on his valuation metric, the gold sector is "as cheap as it's been at any point in time in my career." He also called himself "a believer in strongly higher nominal gold prices." CMR has not seen any later trade or filing.
Is now a good time to buy gold stocks?
CMR does not answer yes or no. Rule said on November 6, 2026 that "the gold price and the gold equities prices could go lower." By CMR's calculation, GDX fell 6.6% from the November 6 close to the November 12 close. Spot gold was about $1,958 above the World Gold Council's second-quarter cost figure at 6:31 a.m. ET on November 13, by CMR's calculation. Timing depends on each reader's own situation, and CMR does not give advice.
What is Rick Rule's outlook on gold mining stocks?
Rule's outlook is about value, and he set no timing. On November 6, 2026 he said he believes in "strongly higher nominal gold prices" and that "the outlook for the gold industry is good." He also said higher nominal interest rates could push gold and gold shares lower first. For juniors, he said the financing window "has slammed shut."
Sources
- Rick Rule Is Buying Gold Stocks as Valuations Collapse (video; title is Kitco's), Kitco Mining with Paul Harris, recorded November 6, published November 11, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2026-11-11/rick-rule-is-buying-gold-stocks-as-valuations-collapse-rick-rule
- Episode transcript, Kitco Mining (Buzzsprout), November 11, 2026. https://kitcomining.buzzsprout.com/2326401/episodes/20109751-rick-rule-is-buying-gold-stocks-as-valuations-collapse
- Rick Rule's top picks for November 2, 2026, BNN Bloomberg, November 2, 2026. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/2026/11/02/rick-rules-top-picks-for-nov-2-2026/
- Rule Symposium highlights 2026, Rick Rule (Substack), accessed November 13, 2026. https://realrickrule.substack.com/p/rule-symposium-highlights-2026
- GDX historical data, Yahoo Finance, to November 12, 2026 close. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDX/history/
- GDXJ historical data, Yahoo Finance, to November 12, 2026 close. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDXJ/history/
- GLD historical data, Yahoo Finance, to November 12, 2026 close. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/
- NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (^HUI) historical data, Yahoo Finance, to November 12, 2026 close. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EHUI/history/
- Live gold and silver prices, Kitco, 6:31 a.m. ET November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/price
- Gold Mining 2.0: Are Investors Looking Through an Outdated Lens? (Kenny Zhu), Sprott, October 7, 2026. https://sprott.com/insights/gold-mining-are-investors-looking-through-an-outdated-lens/
- Barlow's research roundup: top picks in gold mining stocks (Scott Barlow), The Globe and Mail, August 26, 2026. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-barlows-research-roundup-top-picks-in-gold-mining-stocks-from-a/
- Gold miners remain resilient despite tighter margins, Q2 2026 (Oliver Blagden), World Gold Council, November 10, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/11/gold-miners-remain-resilient-despite-tighter-margins-q226
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, US Department of the Treasury, November 9 and 12, 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
- Kitco PM Report: gold and silver slide as Treasury yields surge, Kitco News, November 12, 2026, 5:16 p.m. ET. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-12/gold-silver-slide-treasury-yields-surge-fed-hike-concerns-intensify-kitco
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Goldman Sachs trims gold forecasts as Fed stays hawkish (Reuters), Mining Weekly, November 6, 2026. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/goldman-sachs-trims-gold-forecasts-as-fed-stays-hawkish-2026-11-06
- Commodity Markets Outlook, forecast tables, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
- Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central bank demand lends support (Noel John, Reuters), Investing.com, October 27, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/strong-dollar-high-yields-drag-on-gold-outlook-but-centralbank-demand-lends-support-4975805
- Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
- Release schedule, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
- Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
