Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Friday, November 13, 2026
Named sources split on whether a commodity supercycle lies ahead, and November's evidence does not settle it. Bulls at Carlyle and Goehring & Rozencwajg describe a capital-spending cycle with years to run.
On the other side, the World Bank expects lower prices in 2027, and copper's study group projects refined surpluses over the next two years.
The headline phrase came from a paid newsletter, which asked whether commodities are "the buy of the decade" on November 11. CMR found no bank or named fund manager who said it.
What is a commodity supercycle?
A 2012 UN DESA working paper by Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo studied real commodity prices over nearly 150 years.
They found "four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years." Each swung "20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend."
For metals, they dated the long cycles "1885-1921, 1921-1945, 1945-1999, and 1999-ongoing." Their study ends in 2009, so it cannot say whether that last cycle has ended.
VanEck put it more simply on September 25: "Bear markets have run 10 to 20 years. So have the rallies between them."
The bulls use working definitions of their own. Jeff Currie, senior advisor at Carlyle, wrote on November 10: "A supercycle is a sequence of price spikes with higher highs and higher lows."
He added: "When a price falls back, the problem has not necessarily been solved." Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg defines it by spending: "It is a capital cycle first and foremost."
By every one of these definitions, one strong year cannot make a supercycle. CMR looked at a different use of the word in its October 21 post on an "investment supercycle" in mining.
Is a new commodity supercycle coming?
CMR does not answer yes or no, because the two sides measure different things. The bulls point to capital spending that takes a decade to show up as new supply.
The bears point to the next year or two, where the data show surpluses and forecasts of lower prices. What would settle it is how prices behave across several years, including the lows.
Currie's own definition offers a test: each new low would have to come in above the last.
What have the bulls said?
Jeff Currie, Carlyle
In his November 10 note, Currie wrote that "the constraints behind this supercycle have shifted downstream, into refining, shipping, and insurance, rather than disappeared." He also wrote: "A supercycle is a capex cycle."
In his view, the post-election rotation may favour "gold, silver, and the rest of the hard-money complex," along with the companies that build supply.
Adam Rozencwajg, Goehring & Rozencwajg
Rozencwajg spoke on an Evans and Partners podcast published November 10. In his words, "you can make the case that this cycle has really not even yet begun and it has a long, long way to go."
His reason is time: "It takes 10 or 15 years for a new project to come on."
He was cautious on copper, though: "Copper mine supply is actually growing." He added that copper "has been in a bull market for 10 years, all the way since 2015." On gold, he said "we're in a classic retracement period within a bull market."
Neither bull used the phrase "commodity bull market" in these sources; Rozencwajg applied "bull market" to copper and gold separately.
Michael Hartnett, Bank of America
Bloomberg reported that in an April note, Hartnett said commodities would replace stocks as the biggest winners of the "anything but bonds" trade through the 2020s. That view is seven months old.
Goldman Sachs
Outlook Money reported a Goldman note on November 1: "Our commodity strategists recommend targeted exposures to oil products and European natural gas to hedge near-term escalation risks..."
It went on: "...alongside longer-term exposures to copper, gold, to benefit from structural supply/demand imbalances."
"Recommend" there is Goldman's word to its own clients. Goldman Sachs Asset Management wrote on November 6 that it sees "upward pressure on metals such as copper" and on gold.
What does the bear evidence show?
The World Bank
Its October 28 Commodity Markets Outlook has its total commodity price index rising 23% in 2026, to "their second-highest level since 2013." It then falls 7% in 2027.
Its metals and minerals index, which leaves out precious metals, rises 24.5% in 2026 and falls 3.3% in 2027. Its precious metals index rises 39.9% and then falls 8.3%. All are yearly averages.
The same report leans the other way over a longer horizon. It said "structural conditions for a sustained spell of elevated base metal prices appear to be in place," as investment shifts toward base-metal-intensive sectors.
CMR covered the outlook's gold and oil detail in its October 31 post on the World Bank forecast.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG)
On October 14, it projected a refined copper surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
It also cautioned that "actual market balance outcomes have, on recent occasions, deviated from ICSG market balance forecasts due to unforeseen developments."
Its October 23 monthly data showed an apparent refined surplus of 218,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2026. World mine production fell 0.9% over those months, with Chilean output down 7%.
The two figures measure different stages of the chain. Mines can be short of ore while smelters and refiners still turn out more metal than buyers use.
Copper stocks at the LME, COMEX and Shanghai exchanges totalled 992,865 tonnes at the end of September. The ICSG said that was the highest since June 2003.
Citi
Chinese financial newswire Jin10 reported, via CoinLive on November 6, that Citi cut its three-month forecast for LME copper to $13,300 a tonne from $14,500. CMR has not seen Citi's note.
What is the copper price forecast from banks and agencies?
LME three-month copper was down 0.2% at $13,561 a tonne at 2:00 a.m. ET on November 13, heading for a weekly loss, Reuters reported. On November 12, its low of $13,515 was the weakest since July 20.
Tom Price of broker Panmure Liberum told Reuters: "Every time AI takes a hit, copper demand and prices come under pressure too."
On the New York exchange, COMEX copper futures traded at $6.149 a pound at 5:46 a.m. ET on November 13, up 9.2% in 2026 by CMR's calculation.
On November 12, Goldman Sachs flagged downside risks to its 2027 yearly average forecast of $15,400 after the US midterms. "The main risk to our forecast stems from positioning rather than physical demand," it said. CMR covered the October upgrade in its October 22 post on Goldman's copper call.
If positioning stays at current levels, Goldman said, copper could average about $14,600 in 2027. It saw "further downside if most of the US inventories built up this year flowed back to the rest of the world."
| Institution (date) | 2027 yearly average | Gap vs $13,561 |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs (October 2026) | $15,400 | 13.6% above |
| Bank of America (October 2, 2026) | $15,250 | 12.5% above |
| J.P. Morgan (August 21, 2026) | $13,800 | 1.8% above |
| World Bank (October 28, 2026) | $13,000 | 4.1% below |
All gaps are by CMR's calculation. Each forecast is an average for a whole year, so none is a price for a given day. For the same year, they span about $2,400 a tonne.
For 2026, the yearly averages are $13,278 from Bank of America, $13,885 from J.P. Morgan and $13,200 from the World Bank.
J.P. Morgan's table dates from August, before the price fell below $14,000, and includes a fourth-quarter 2026 average of $14,800. Its Gregory Shearer said then: "Globally, the refined copper market is pretty well supplied."
What is the gold and silver price outlook?
Spot gold was $3,891.10 bid at 5:55 a.m. ET on November 13, up 0.38%, Kitco's live prices showed. Spot silver was $49.78 bid, down 0.34%. By CMR's calculation, the gold/silver ratio was about 78.2.
Goldman Sachs cut its gold forecasts on November 5 to $4,150 at the end of 2026 and $4,800 at the end of 2027, both year-end figures. The World Bank's yearly averages for gold are $4,600 in 2026 and $4,250 in 2027. For silver, its yearly averages are $70 in 2026 and $62 in 2027.
A 2026 yearly average includes the very high prices of early 2026, so it can sit far above today's price without implying a rise from here. In the precious metals market, BMO's analysts wrote that "the bull case increasingly requires investment demand not just to remain strong, but to remain exceptionally strong for years." For the rates detail, see CMR's November 13 post on gold prices.
How have the broad commodity indexes done in 2026?
The broad indexes capture this year's commodity market trends. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) closed at 133.8840 on November 12. By CMR's calculation, that is up 22.06% in 2026 and 9.0% below its September 10 closing high.
The S&P GSCI closed at 687.80 on November 12. By CMR's calculation, it is up 25.39% in 2026 and 11.6% below its May 4 closing high. The S&P 500 closed at 7,592.40, up 10.91%.
These are price indexes; total-return versions, which add roll and collateral returns, give different percentages.
The S&P GSCI is weighted toward energy, so oil drives much of its gain. Brent crude futures traded at $95.51 at 5:46 a.m. ET on November 13, up about 57% in 2026 by CMR's calculation.
What does the long-run test of commodities against stocks show?
Both sides can check one measure: commodity prices divided by stock prices. VanEck wrote: "Measured against the S&P 500, both the S&P GSCI and the Bloomberg Commodity Index sit close to their lowest levels since 1970."
It added: "That is a small sample, roughly three turns in five decades, and it is not a forecast." VanEck's chart uses total-return data as of June 2026.
CMR ran its own check with Yahoo Finance month-end closes of both price indexes since January 1985. The ratio's lowest month-end was 0.0801 in December 2025, by CMR's calculation. On November 12, 2026, it was 0.0906, up about 13% in 2026.
That is still lower than all but about 3% of months since 1985, by CMR's calculation. The ratio's high in the 2000s cycle was 0.6741 in June 2008, and today's figure is about 87% below it.
From December 1998 to June 2008, the S&P GSCI rose about 549%, by CMR's calculation. The S&P 500 rose about 4% over the same span.
The ratio shows that commodities are cheap relative to stocks. It cannot say when, or whether, that reverses, and the gap could also close because stocks fall.
How I read it. Every definition here measures a supercycle in decades, so 2026 alone cannot settle the question in either direction. The bull case is about capital spending that takes ten years to show up in supply. The bear case is about the next year or two, with refined copper in surplus, the World Bank expecting lower prices and higher rates weighing on gold. Both can be right at once. Even the bulls quoted here split by metal: one is cautious on copper because supply is responding, the other is warming to gold and silver. For a reader who thinks in ounces and tonnes, the ratio against stocks says commodities are cheap relative to equities. It does not say which commodity, or when.
Best commodities to invest in for 2026? What banks and fund managers say they favour.
CMR does not rank commodities. In natural resources investing, cycles are measured in years, and the views below are each institution's own.
- Goldman Sachs research: longer-term copper and gold, and near-term oil products and European gas, for its clients (November 1).
- Goldman Sachs Asset Management: upward pressure on copper and gold (November 6).
- Carlyle's Jeff Currie: gold, silver and the hard-money complex, plus the builders of supply (November 10).
- Adam Rozencwajg: cautious on copper as mine supply grows; gold in a retracement within a bull market (November 10).
- Bank of America's Michael Hartnett: commodities over stocks for the rest of the 2020s (April).
Who stands behind these views?
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan and Citi sell research to clients and trade commodities or securities. Société Générale, BMO and Panmure Liberum sell research or brokerage services. Carlyle is an investment firm, and Currie writes as its senior advisor.
Goehring & Rozencwajg manages natural resource funds. Evans and Partners, which hosted the podcast, says its staff may hold securities discussed. VanEck sells natural resource and commodity funds.
The ICSG sells its monthly bulletin. The newsletter that asked the headline question sells subscriptions, and its authors say they hold positions.
What to watch: which dates could test the supercycle case?
- Monday, November 16, 2026: the delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders report, covering positions at the November 10 close.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting, with the rate decision on December 9.
- Thursday, December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US consumer price index for November.
- Thursday, December 31, 2026: the last day of the year, which closes the window for the 2026 yearly averages and Goldman's end-2026 gold forecast. No release is tied to it.
- Friday, January 8 to Thursday, January 14, 2027: the annual commodity index rebalancing. Société Générale estimated net buying of about $3.3 billion in gold futures, a mechanical flow estimate that makes no call on price.
FAQ
Is a new commodity supercycle coming?
CMR does not answer yes or no. On November 10, 2026, Carlyle's Jeff Currie and Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg described a capital-spending cycle with years to run. The World Bank expects its commodity price index to fall 7% in 2027, in its October 28, 2026 outlook. Supercycles are measured in decades, so 2026 alone cannot settle the question.
Best commodities to invest in for 2026? What banks and fund managers say they favour.
CMR does not rank commodities. As their own views: Goldman Sachs research, reported November 1, 2026, cited longer-term exposure to copper and gold for its clients. On November 10, Carlyle's Jeff Currie said the post-election rotation may favour gold, silver and the rest of the hard-money complex.
What is a commodity supercycle?
A UN DESA working paper from February 2012 found four super-cycles in real commodity prices from 1865 to 2009, each lasting 30 to 40 years. On November 10, 2026, Carlyle's Jeff Currie called a supercycle "a sequence of price spikes with higher highs and higher lows." Adam Rozencwajg calls it a capital cycle. By any of these definitions, one strong year is too short to make one.
Sources
- Are Commodities The Buy Of The Decade?, TSCS ("Strategist" and "Tactician"), Substack, November 11, 2026, 3:04 p.m. ET. https://tscsw.substack.com/p/are-commodities-the-buy-of-the-decade
- Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century, Working Paper No. 110 (Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo), UN DESA, February 2012. https://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2012/wp110_2012.pdf
- The Case for Real Assets: Historically Inexpensive vs. Stocks (Andrew Musgraves), VanEck, September 25, 2026. https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/natural-resources/the-case-for-real-assets-historically-inexpensive-vs-stocks/
- The vote changed Washington, not the barrel (Jeff Currie), The Carlyle Compass, Carlyle, November 10, 2026. https://www.carlyle.com/carlyle-compass/the-vote-changed-washington-not-the-barrel
- Words on Where Commodities Go Next (Adam Rozencwajg), Words on Wealth podcast, Evans and Partners, November 10, 2026. https://www.eandp.com.au/podcasts/words-on-where-commodities-go-next/
- BofA's Hartnett sees commodities surge lasting years (Rose Henderson), Bloomberg, April 10, 2026, 6:21 a.m. ET. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/bofa-s-hartnett-sees-commodities-surge-lasting-years
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- Citi Cuts Three-Month Copper Forecast to $13,300 per Tonne, Sees Surpluses in 2027 and 2028 (Jin10 via CoinLive), Longbridge, November 6, 2026. https://longbridge.com/en/news/304678910
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