Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Friday, November 13, 2026
The silver price outlook from Bank of America (BofA) centres on a $75 quarterly average for the second and third quarters of 2027. Before then, the bank expects silver to average $55 in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Spot silver was $50.38 bid at 9:59 p.m. ET on November 12, up 0.86% on the day, Kitco's live prices showed. The change runs from Kitco's 5:00 p.m. ET close.
This article reads BofA's figures, compares its supply and demand balance with the Silver Institute's, and sizes the data-centre case with the risks BofA names.
What exactly is the Bank of America silver forecast?
Michael Widmer, who leads metals research at BofA Global Research, expects a $55 average in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to Benzinga's report of the bank's October 30 note. Benzinga said Widmer then sees a $75 quarterly average for the second and third quarters of 2027.
BofA's research is behind a paywall, so every BofA figure here comes through a news report. According to exchangerates.org.uk's report of the bank's note, BofA's November 5 commodity table showed the same mid-2027 average and a $70 yearly average for 2027. That was a repeat of the earlier view, not an upgrade.
BofA's August table, as exchangerates.org.uk reported it, shows where that average sits in the bank's path. It had $60 for the third quarter of 2026, $55 for the fourth and $63 for the first quarter of 2027. It then had a $75 quarterly average for the second and third quarters of 2027, and $65 for the fourth.
So in August, the mid-2027 average was the peak, with a lower quarter after it. Only the $55, the mid-2027 average and the $70 yearly average for 2027 were reported again in October and November.
CMR's November 1 post on the Bank of America silver forecast covered the forecast itself and silver's drop below $50.
How did silver trade this week?
COMEX front-month silver, the nearest futures contract, settled at $51.101 on November 10, down $1.463 or 2.78%, Dow Jones Market Data showed. Dow Jones put it 27.14% lower year to date and 55.60% below its record settlement of $115.08 on January 26, 2026.
On Kitco's late readings, spot silver was near $51.410 on November 10, down 3.55%. It was near $49.930 on November 12, down 3.13%.
Kitco said silver "suffered heavier percentage losses amid renewed concerns about industrial demand and equity-market volatility." Larger swings than gold are a recent theme, as CMR showed in its look at how silver swung harder after November 3.
Late on November 12, futures showed about an 85% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike on December 9 and 15% for a half point, Kitco reported. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10% on November 12, up from 4.88% on November 9, Treasury data show. CMR's November 13 look at gold prices today covers those sessions.
Can silver reach $75 in 2026?
BofA does not forecast it. The bank's figure for the rest of this year is a $55 average for the whole fourth quarter, which already includes October and most of November. It is not a price on a given day.
By CMR's calculation, spot silver at $50.38 would need to rise about 48.9% to match the mid-2027 average. It would need about 9.2% to reach $55. By CMR's count, 49 calendar days and 33 weekday sessions remain from November 13 to December 31, leaving out Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Neither BofA nor any other forecaster cited here expects silver to reach the level of BofA's mid-2027 average in 2026. That does not make it impossible, and CMR makes no prediction.
Why is Bank of America bullish on silver?
BofA is cautious on 2026 and more constructive on mid-2027. According to exchangerates.org.uk's report, the bank wrote: "We expect a surplus in 2026, and further out, the fundamental outlook is less clear cut on a risk that silver substitution accelerates." Benzinga reported that BofA expects the market to return to a deficit in 2027.
The bank was more bullish in May. Kitco News reported that BofA analysts remained optimistic then about silver reaching $100 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. They did not see silver outpacing gold on a sustained basis.
The May note also warned about solar. "We believe that demand from the sector peaked last year due to a confluence of factors, including an incentive for manufacturers to thrift on silver," the analysts said. Thrifting means using less silver in each product. They added: "Investor demand could hold the key to future price movements."
So the fourth-quarter 2026 view moved from a possible $100 in May to a $55 average by August. In May, BofA already saw silver "once again" near the level of its mid-2027 average by the second quarter of 2027, Kitco reported.
How can BofA see a surplus while the Silver Institute sees a deficit?
Two balance sheets of silver supply and demand point different ways for 2026. BofA expects a surplus of 910 tonnes in 2026, after a deficit of about 8,650 tonnes in 2025, Benzinga reported. It then sees a deficit of 852 tonnes in 2027. By CMR's calculation, at about 32,151 ounces a tonne, those are about 29.3 million ounces and 27.4 million ounces.
The Silver Institute, an industry association, released interim figures compiled by the consultancy Metals Focus on the evening of November 12. They show a 2026 deficit of 35 million ounces, the sixth in a row.
In the Silver Institute's silver demand forecast, total demand falls 5% to 1.08 billion ounces. Industrial silver demand falls 3% to 640 million ounces, about 22% above its 2019 level. Mine supply slips 0.5% to 834 million ounces. Recycling rises 6% to 210 million ounces.
The difference comes from how each one counts investment. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) are funds that hold physical silver for their shareholders. The Silver Institute expects net ETP outflows of 45 million ounces this year, and it leaves that selling outside demand in its headline deficit.
Its own line called "market balance less ETPs" counts that selling. On that line, the 35 million ounce deficit becomes a 10 million ounce surplus. BofA's surplus uses its own method, which the news reports do not fully spell out. So the two figures are not directly comparable, and CMR does not average them or pick one.
How big is the AI data-centre demand case?
According to exchangerates.org.uk's report of the bank's research, BofA estimates about 708,000 ounces of silver per gigawatt of hyperscale data-centre capacity. A gigawatt is a billion watts of power capacity. Hyperscale sites are very large centres run by the biggest cloud companies.
BofA puts conventional enterprise facilities at 318,000 ounces per gigawatt. Those figures are the silver needed to build and equip a site, not yearly use. BofA gave no total for data-centre silver demand, and CMR does not create one.
Hyperscale sites grew from about 10% of data-centre capacity in 2010 to 37% now, according to exchangerates.org.uk's report of the bank's research. The bank wrote that data centres and AI "require not only chips, but cooling systems, generators, power-management equipment and substantial investment in generation and grids." That pulls in copper, aluminium, silver and other metals, it said.
The Silver Institute forecasts that industrial demand excluding photovoltaics (PV), the solar cells in panels, will rise 4.5% to 492 million ounces this year.
The April World Silver Survey, as two Kitco opinion columns cite it, expected data centres alone to exceed 10% of electrical and electronics silver demand in 2027. It also said solar savings outweighed AI and data-centre gains in 2025.
Solar is the bigger user, and it is shrinking. PV silver demand is set to fall 21% this year, Bloomberg reported. Philip Newman of Metals Focus told Bloomberg: "I would actually say that the record level of solar demand is behind us, and it will continue to weaken." BofA expects a shift in solar technology to cut silver use there by 11% in 2026.
Where did the data-centre risk headline come from?
The phrase "data-centre risks" came from a November 7 exchangerates.org.uk headline. That article tied it to the post-election sell-off in US technology shares and to a November 3 note by BofA US economist Stephen Juneau.
Juneau argued that state and local rules could "slow the pace and raise the cost" of data-centre building without stopping it, the report said. The same article said this "does not establish that the election has produced a nationwide halt to data-centre building." CMR found no source showing BofA saying the risks are growing.
BofA's own research, as exchangerates.org.uk reported it, names three risks. "Planning and regulatory systems are being stretched by the wave of project applications for data centres, amid a broader trend of rapid load growth and electrification," the bank wrote.
It added: "Social acceptability is also a growing issue, as communities push back against data centre projects, and concerns about affordability and environmental impacts rise." Its third caveat covered thrifting: "Industry does not stand still and the resource usage tends to evolve, with potential shortages and high prices a key incentive to innovate." These are risks to the timing and size of demand, and none shows demand falling.
What factors could push silver prices to $75?
Each sourced factor comes with a risk from the same source.
- A swing to deficit. BofA's balance moves from a 2026 surplus to a 2027 deficit, Benzinga reported. The bank's own risk is that silver substitution speeds up.
- Data-centre and electrification demand. BofA expects electrification, data centres and electric vehicles together to lift metals use in a material and lasting way, according to exchangerates.org.uk's report of the bank's research. It also names permitting delays, community pushback and thrifting.
- Investors and ETFs. BofA sees returning investors as an upside risk and ETF selling as a downside risk, exchangerates.org.uk reported. The Silver Institute expects 45 million ounces of ETP outflows this year.
- Rates and the dollar. The Silver Institute said shifting US interest rate expectations, dollar strength and rising bond yields weighed on investor sentiment as silver retreated from its January record.
How I read it. BofA's mid-2027 average depends on three things arriving on time: a swing to deficit, data-centre and grid demand that permits and power allow, and investors coming back. The Silver Institute's numbers show that growth outside solar is real. They also show that solar losses and ETF selling outweigh it this year. For a stacker, someone who collects physical bars and coins, the gap between a quarterly average next summer and a price this December is the whole question.
What is the strongest case against BofA's silver price outlook?
BMO Capital Markets makes it, in a note by analysts George Heppel and Helen Amos. "On our estimates, the consumption surplus rises to a historical record high by 2030, driven principally by the reversal in solar demand," the analysts wrote. On the silver investment outlook, they added: "The bull case increasingly requires investment demand not just to remain strong, but to remain exceptionally strong for years."
BMO measures the balance as supply minus what manufacturers and jewelers consume, Bloomberg reported. It leaves bar and coin buying out, which makes a third way of counting.
The gold/silver ratio is the number of ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. By CMR's calculation from Kitco's live bids late on November 12, it was about 77.7. BMO expects about 85 over the next four years, up from about 76, Kitco News reported.
What do other silver price forecasts for 2026 say?
Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, BMO Capital Markets and the consultancy Metals Focus sell research and financial services. The Silver Institute is an industry association that Bloomberg describes as producer-funded. Every forecast below is the institution's own estimate of the silver market outlook.
J.P. Morgan Global Research, in an August 13 outlook, forecast a $63.0 quarterly average for the fourth quarter of 2026. It forecast yearly averages of $70.6 for 2026 and $63.9 for 2027.
The World Bank's yearly averages for silver are $70 for 2026, $62 for 2027 and $58 for 2028, in its October 28 outlook. CMR checked that outlook in its post on the World Bank gold and silver price prediction. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts returned medians of $70.30 for 2026 and $66.75 for 2027, both yearly averages.
A 2026 yearly average includes the very high prices of early 2026. So a $70 average for 2026 can sit far above today's price without implying a rise from here. J.P. Morgan's and BofA's 2026 figures came before silver fell below $50 in late October, and the World Bank's data cutoff was October 14.
What to watch: which dates test BofA's fourth-quarter average?
- Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US producer price index for October.
- Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Income and Outlays for October, including the PCE price index the Fed watches.
- Friday, December 4, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the November jobs report.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting, with the rate decision and new projections on December 9.
- Thursday, December 31, 2026: the last day of the fourth quarter, which closes the window for BofA's $55 quarterly average.
FAQ
Can silver reach $75 in 2026?
Bank of America's $75 is a mid-2027 average, and the bank does not forecast that level for 2026. Its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast is a $55 quarterly average. Spot silver at $50.38 would need to rise about 48.9% to reach the mid-2027 average, by CMR's calculation. No forecaster cited here expects that level in 2026.
Why is Bank of America bullish on silver?
BofA is cautious on 2026 and more constructive on 2027. It expects a swing from a 2026 surplus to a 2027 deficit, plus demand from electrification and data centres. In May it was more bullish on late 2026 than it is now.
What factors could push silver prices to $75?
The sourced factors are a 2027 deficit in BofA's balance, data-centre and electrification demand, returning investors and ETF buying, and lower rates or a softer dollar. Each comes with a named risk: substitution, permitting and grid delays, ETF selling, and Fed hikes.
Sources
- Live gold and silver prices, Kitco, November 12, 2026, 9:59 p.m. ET for silver and 10:00 p.m. ET for gold (page clock 02:59 and 03:00 AM UTC, November 13). https://www.kitco.com/price
- Report on silver's distance from its 200-day moving average and Bank of America's forecast, Benzinga, November 2, 2026, 9:06 a.m. ET. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/26/11/62778727/silver-200-day-moving-average-2020-tavi-costa-bofa
- Silver Price Prediction: BofA Forecasts $75 On Data-Centre Risks, exchangerates.org.uk (Dave Taylor), November 7, 2026, 3:00 a.m. ET. https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47701/2026-11-07-silver-price-prediction-bofa-forecasts-75-on-data-centre-risks.html
- Silver price forecast 2026 to 2027: XAG has surged 20% but correction expected, exchangerates.org.uk (Dave Taylor), August 26, 2026. https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47013/2026-08-26-silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-xag-has-surged-20-but-correction-expected.html
- Comex Silver Settles 2.78% Lower at $51.101, Data Talk, Dow Jones via Morningstar, November 10, 2026, 1:49 p.m. ET. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202611108910/comex-silver-settles-278-lower-at-51101-data-talk
- Gold, silver plunge as hotter U.S. inflation raises prospect of larger Fed rate hike, Kitco PM Report, Kitco News, November 10, 2026, 6:40 p.m. ET. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-10/gold-silver-plunge-hotter-us-inflation-raises-prospect-larger-fed-rate-hike
- Gold, silver slide as Treasury yields surge, Fed hike concerns intensify, Kitco PM Report, Kitco NewsWire, November 12, 2026, 5:16 p.m. ET. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-12/gold-silver-slide-treasury-yields-surge-fed-hike-concerns-intensify-kitco
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- Silver Price Forecast: BofA Retains $75 Mid-2027 Average as Prices Fall, exchangerates.org.uk, October 30, 2026. https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47626/2026-10-30-silver-price-forecast-bofa-retains-75-mid-2027-average-as-prices-fall.html
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