Rick Rule Says Gold Mining Stocks Match the Cheapest of His Career: Is a Revaluation Coming?

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Friday, November 13, 2026

Rick Rule did not say when a revaluation of gold mining stocks might come, and he said prices could fall first. "I'm of the belief that the gold price and the gold equities prices could go lower," he told Kitco Mining in an interview recorded on November 6.

His claim is narrower than the headline it inspired. On his own valuation measure, he said the gold sector is "as cheap as it's been at any point in time in my career." On price against gold, the picture looks different.

This article checks that one claim on November 12 figures. It names Rule's metric, sets it beside prices a reader can check, and lays out what he says could come first.

What exactly did Rick Rule say?

Rule spoke with host Paul Harris. Harris said on air, "Today is Friday, November the 6th." Kitco published the episode on November 11 at 1:00 a.m. ET, under the title "Rick Rule Is Buying Gold Stocks as Valuations Collapse." The word "collapse" is Kitco's wording.

The core of it, from the episode transcript, came in one long sentence. Rule said: "When I look at the gold equities relative to the gold price, I'm struck by the fact that on the valuation metric that I use..."

He described that metric as "...the net present value of current cash flows at future gold prices, adding back the prospective value of proven pipelines, ... relative to enterprise value." On it, he said, "the gold sector is right now as cheap as it's been at any point in time in my career."

That career, in his words, covers "50 years in these markets." So he described a level that ties the cheapest he has seen. He described the shares in similar terms in a July 2 interview with Steve Barton of In It To Win It. That means he has held the view through a gold rally and a sell-off.

Rule also said: "I personally am a believer in strongly higher nominal gold prices." CMR's November 5 post on his November 2 company picks covered the names he likes, so this article names none. Rule's comments here are about the sector as a whole and name no individual gold mining investment opportunities.

For disclosure, Rule is President and CEO of Rule Investment Media, which publishes the Rule Classroom. He hosts the paid Rule Symposium, next held July 5 to 9, 2027, at The Boca Raton, his Substack says. In the interview, he said he is adding to his own holdings of physical gold and gold mining shares. Sprott and VanEck sell gold mining funds, and Scotiabank sells research.

Where does the word "never" come from?

The phrase "never been this cheap" is GOLDINVEST's wording. GOLDINVEST posted a separate video on November 10 titled "Rick Rule: Gold mining stocks have never been this cheap," from the Rule Classroom Plus series. CMR found no transcript for it and could not confirm Rule said "never."

GOLDINVEST's own summary says Rule sees producers at "their lowest relative valuations in five decades." It says he expects "temporary price weakness in the near term" and "significantly higher prices over a three- to seven-year horizon." Those words come from GOLDINVEST's summary.

What valuation metric does Rick Rule use for gold mining stocks?

In plain words, Rule asks what the cash flows and proven projects of gold mining companies are worth today. He then compares that with the cost of buying the whole company, debt included. That cost is called enterprise value.

One detail matters most: he values the cash flows at future gold prices. He also adds back the value of "proven pipelines," meaning projects that have shown they can work. Rule gave no number for this measure in the interview, so CMR gives none.

Because the measure is his own, a reader cannot check it from public data. Other people's valuation figures, and the share prices themselves, can be checked.

How have gold mining stocks done on price this year?

Here are the funds most readers can look up. GDX is the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which holds large producers. GDXJ is the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF, and GLD is SPDR Gold Shares, a fund that holds gold.

On Thursday, November 12, Yahoo Finance data show GDX closed at $81.84, down 3.95% on the day. GDXJ closed at $99.62 and GLD at $354.89. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) closed at 684.80.

From the end of 2025 to November 12, GDX fell 4.6%, by CMR's calculation from Yahoo closes. GDXJ fell 12.4%, GLD fell 10.5% and HUI fell 2.4%, by the same calculation.

So on price, the large-miner fund has fallen less than the gold fund this year, and the junior fund has fallen more.

The drop from the highs is steeper: GDX is 29.4% below its February 27 close of $115.84, by CMR's calculation. GDXJ is 36.2% below its February 27 close of $156.19. GLD's 2026 closing high was $495.90 on January 29.

VanEck, which runs GDX and GDXJ, gave October figures. For the year to October 31, it said gold returned minus 10.3%, GDX minus 10.1% and GDXJ minus 16.5%. VanEck said miners captured about 1.2 to 1.3 times gold's January rise. When gold reversed, it said, they fell about 1.4 to 1.5 times as much. "Smaller-cap companies have lagged," VanEck wrote.

Where does the GDX/GLD ratio sit against its history?

The GDX/GLD ratio shows how many GLD shares one GDX share buys. A higher number means miners have done better than gold, on price alone.

On November 12, the ratio was 0.231, by CMR's calculation from Yahoo Finance closes. That is up from 0.216 at the end of 2025. Its monthly low since June 2006 was 0.129, at the end of September 2015. Its high was 0.652, at the end of November 2006.

Since January 2014, only 4 of 154 month-end readings were at or above today's level, by CMR's calculation. They came in July 2016, July 2020, February 2026 and August 2026. Before 2013, the ratio was far higher.

So against gold, on price alone, gold mining stocks sit near the top of their range of the past 12 years. They remain far below the levels of 2006 to 2012. These figures use prices only and leave out dividends.

What do other valuation measures show?

EV/EBITDA is company value, debt included, divided by a year of operating profit. A lower number means investors pay less for each dollar of that profit.

Sprott's Kenny Zhu wrote on October 7 about the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM). Its forward EV/EBITDA had "compressed to 5.7X, down from a peak of 9.9X in June 2014." Sprott said 12-month forward earnings per share expectations reached $219.77 on September 30, 2026. That was up from about $49.60 at the end of 2023.

These are September 30 figures from Bloomberg data, before gold's November drop. Sprott's figures show expected profits rising faster than share prices, which lowers the multiple.

P/NAV compares a share price with a bank's estimate of the value of a miner's assets. Below 1.0 means the market pays less than that estimate. On August 26, The Globe and Mail's Scott Barlow quoted Scotiabank analyst Tanya Jakusconek.

She said gold producers traded "at 0.91 times P/NAV and FCF yields of 6.3 per cent, 6.7 times EV/EBITDA for 2027 at spot gold prices." Streamers, which fund mines in return for future metal, traded at "1.88 times P/NAV and 4.0-per-cent FCF Yield." These are August figures at August prices, when gold was far higher, so they are context rather than a current reading.

On margins, the World Gold Council's Oliver Blagden wrote on November 10 that all-in sustaining costs reached a record $1,930 an ounce in the second quarter of 2026. All-in sustaining costs are the full cost of keeping a mine running. The average margin was $2,582 an ounce, the council said.

VanEck said gold averaged about $4,500 an ounce so far in 2026, more than $1,000 above the 2025 average of $3,445. It said industry costs rose about $300 an ounce over the same period.

Spot gold was $3,917.60 bid at 10:37 p.m. ET on November 12, up 1.06%, Kitco's live prices showed. By CMR's calculation, that is about $1,988 above the council's second-quarter cost figure. That gap uses a live price, so it differs from a reported quarterly margin. The council expects further margin contraction over the rest of 2026.

Are gold mining stocks cheap in 2026?

It depends on the measure. On Rule's cash-flow measure, and on Sprott's September 30 forward EV/EBITDA, valuations look low. Scotiabank's August P/NAV figures pointed the same way, at higher gold prices.

On price against gold, they do not: the GDX/GLD ratio was 0.231 on November 12, near the top of its range since 2014, by CMR's calculation. Both readings use real data, and they answer different questions.

Rule's comment covers the whole sector and singles out no undervalued gold stocks. CMR calls no company or fund cheap, and names none here.

Why does Rule say prices could go lower first?

Rule tied his caution to rates. "Periods of higher nominal interest rates ... historically have not been good for gold," he said. He added: "To the extent that nominal rates go up, I suspect that the gold price goes down, I suspect that the gold share price goes down."

Then he set that against value: "I've learned in 50 years in these markets, sometimes things are cheap enough." His claim is about value, and he made no call on timing.

The week since the interview brought the higher nominal rates he named. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10% on November 12, up from 4.88% on November 9, US Treasury data show.

The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, with the next decision on December 9. Late on November 12, Kitco put CME FedWatch odds at about 85% for a quarter-point hike and 15% for a half point. So the market is pricing a hike of some size as a near certainty.

COMEX front-month gold settled at $3,878.40 on November 12, down 2.85%, Dow Jones data carried by GoldSeek showed. That was its lowest settlement of 2026, by CMR's calculation. CMR's November 13 look at gold prices today covers that week in detail.

Over the same three sessions, the miner funds fell further than gold, by CMR's calculation from Yahoo closes. GDX fell 10.5%, from $91.46 on November 9 to $81.84 on November 12. GDXJ fell 11.9%, from $113.06 to $99.62.

COMEX front-month gold fell 5.5% over those sessions, from $4,105.00 to $3,878.40, by CMR's calculation. The instruments differ, so the figures sit side by side. CMR's October 20 post on miners and bullion explains how miners magnify gold's moves in both directions.

Are junior gold mining stocks cheaper than the producers?

No source here measures junior valuations against producers directly, so CMR draws no conclusion. The price data and Rule's comments describe different things.

On price, juniors have done worse this year: GDXJ fell 12.4% from the end of 2025 to November 12, against 4.6% for GDX, by CMR's calculation. VanEck's October data showed the same pattern, and its note said smaller companies lagged.

Rule's comments were about funding: he said that for seven or eight months, investment banks had not called him with offerings. In the last two weeks, he said he was "getting phone calls five or six a day, which tells me that the financing window has slammed shut."

Harris cited a chart of the top 25 GDX holdings. He said it showed them 12% to 58% below their 52-week highs. That is Harris's figure, and CMR has not verified it. CMR's November 9 post on the junior financing window covered the same theme from Rule's November 7 interview.

Rule also described what he sees as a seasonal pattern: junior shares hit by year-end tax-loss selling, he said, have tended to recover between mid-January and the PDAC convention.

How can both readings be true at once?

How I read it. Rule's claim and the price ratio can both be true. Miners can look cheap against the cash they generate while their shares have held up better than bullion this year, because earnings and margins rose faster than share prices. Rule framed his view in years, and he said rates could push prices lower first, so one week settles nothing. For a sound-money reader, owning metal and owning a business that digs it are different cases. The business adds its own risks: costs, jurisdictions, dilution and financing.

What to watch: which dates bear on Rule's rate caveat?

• Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US producer price index for October.
• Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Income and Outlays for October, including the PCE price index.
• Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting, with the rate decision on December 9.
• Through Thursday, December 31, 2026: the tax-loss selling season Rule described for juniors.
• Sunday, March 7 to Wednesday, March 10, 2027: the PDAC convention in Toronto, the end of the window Rule described.

FAQ

Are gold mining stocks cheap in 2026?

It depends on the measure. On Rick Rule's cash-flow measure, and on Sprott's September 30 forward EV/EBITDA of 5.7 times, valuations look low. On price against gold, GDX/GLD was 0.231 on November 12, near the top of its range since 2014, by CMR's calculation.

What valuation metric does Rick Rule use for gold mining stocks?

Rule compares the present value of a miner's cash flows at future gold prices, plus the value of proven projects, with its enterprise value. Enterprise value is what it would cost to buy the whole company, debt included. He gave no number for the measure.

Are junior gold mining stocks cheaper than the producers?

No source CMR found measures junior valuations against producers directly. On price, GDXJ fell 12.4% from the end of 2025 to November 12, against 4.6% for GDX, by CMR's calculation. On November 6, Rule said banks had started calling him five or six times a day with offerings, which he read as a sign the financing window had slammed shut.

Sources

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