The World Bank raised its 2027 copper price estimate 18% from April to $13,000 per tonne, or about $5.90 per pound. That is only 1.5% below the $13,200 average it now projects for this year. The October Commodity Markets Outlook, released Wednesday, expects prices to stay near record highs next year as new mines struggle to keep pace with demand from power grids and data centres.
Copper is the metal used in electrical wiring, motors and power transmission. A tonne equals 2,204.6 pounds. The bank’s forecast is a calendar-year average based on data available through 14 October 2026. Spot copper traded near $6.65 per pound on 28 October 2026, well above the bank’s 2027 average.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” Ayhan Kose, the bank’s deputy chief economist, said in a news release. “Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth.”
The revision points to sustained demand for new copper supply. Electrification supports industrial metals. Weak construction weighs on iron ore. High silver prices encourage manufacturers to use less silver in some applications. The bank’s metals and minerals index is expected to rise 25% this year before easing 3.3% in 2027. Even after that decline the index would stand 16% above its 2021 peak.
Mine supply growth is expected to remain subdued. Indonesia faces lingering weather-related disruptions. Chile faces operational constraints and declining grades. Demand should strengthen in 2027–28 through investment in electricity networks, data centres and electric vehicles. Trade policy adds another constraint. The Democratic Republic of Congo banned copper concentrate exports in August 2026 to encourage domestic processing. The bank noted 147 restrictive measures affecting critical minerals through September versus 63 measures easing trade.
Long development timelines help explain why prices are expected to stay elevated. Exploration and mine construction can take more than a decade. Refining capacity remains concentrated in a handful of countries. Global demand slipped slightly in the first half of 2026, but mine disruptions and movement of refined metal into U.S. warehouses tightened availability elsewhere. Uncertainty over possible U.S. import tariffs created a premium for Comex copper over London Metal Exchange prices.
Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.B) is a major Canadian copper producer. It operates Highland Valley Copper in British Columbia and holds large interests in Quebrada Blanca and other assets in Chile and Peru. Copper production rose almost 25% in the second quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. Net cash unit costs fell. The company guides 2026 copper production of 455,000 to 530,000 tonnes. A strike by United Steelworkers Local 7619 commenced at Highland Valley Copper on 24 October 2026. Operations continue at reduced capacity. The impact on overall production will depend on the duration of the labour action. Teck is also advancing a merger of equals with Anglo American announced in September 2025.
First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) produces copper mainly from Kansanshi and Sentinel in Zambia. Its Cobre Panamá mine in Panama was placed into preservation and safe management in November 2023 after a Supreme Court ruling. Stockpile processing has advanced. All three milling trains were brought online during the third quarter of 2026. Copper production guidance for 2026 was narrowed to 405,000–435,000 tonnes. On 30 September 2026 an Interministerial Commission delivered its final report to the President of Panama. It recommended assessing the feasibility of a new agreement that could address outstanding arbitrations and provide for a potential restart to support an orderly, self-financed closure. The President is reviewing the report. First Quantum reported third-quarter results on 28 October 2026.
Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) operates copper mines including Candelaria and Caserones in Chile and Chapada in Brazil. It has expanded interests in Caserones and Los Helados and holds a stake in the Vicuña project in Argentina. The company pre-announced that third-quarter 2026 revenue would include about $51 million of provisional pricing adjustments on prior-period concentrate sales. Chile operations were impacted by severe winter storms earlier in 2026. Full third-quarter results are scheduled for release on 4 November 2026, with a conference call on 5 November.
Hudbay Minerals (TSX: HBM) produces copper in Peru, Canada and the United States. On 21 October 2026 Hudbay and Mitsubishi approved construction of the Copper World project in Arizona. The definitive feasibility study outlines average annual copper production of about 102,000 tonnes over the first 10 years. First production is targeted for the second half of 2029. Cash costs are projected at about $1.65 per pound over that period. Construction costs have risen compared with earlier studies. Hudbay owns 70% of the project.
Each company faces company-specific risks that are independent of the World Bank price forecast. For Teck Resources the strike at Highland Valley Copper that began on 24 October 2026 is a near-term operational risk. Production continues at reduced capacity and the full effect depends on how long the labour action lasts. For First Quantum Minerals the uncertainty around Cobre Panamá remains material. The Interministerial Commission’s September 30 report recommends assessing a restart framework, but the President has not yet announced a decision. For Lundin Mining weather-related disruptions at its Chilean operations and the timing of provisional pricing adjustments illustrate ongoing operational and commercial volatility. For Hudbay Minerals the recent final investment decision on Copper World carries execution and cost-overrun risk. Capital intensity has increased from earlier estimates and first production is still years away.
Broader risks include higher energy and input costs, which the World Bank highlighted as a factor that can squeeze producer margins even when metal prices rise. Trade restrictions and permitting delays can also slow new supply. The bank’s forecasts assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies. An adverse scenario involving further energy-supply disruptions could push 2027 prices higher but could also weaken industrial demand if inflation and interest rates stay elevated.
Teck Resources is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on 29 October 2026. First Quantum Minerals reported results on 28 October and is scheduled to host a conference call on 29 October. Lundin Mining will release third-quarter results after market close on 4 November 2026 and host a webcast and call on 5 November. The next World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook is expected in April 2027. Investors can also track developments on the Highland Valley strike and any further statements from the Panamanian government on Cobre Panamá.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security.
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