Clyde Russell on Central Bank Gold Buying and Gold's Short-Term Swings, Checked

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Reuters columnist Clyde Russell argues that gold near $4,000 an ounce is being pushed around by stocks, oil and Federal Reserve rate odds in the short run. Over a longer stretch, he says central bank gold buying, fund inflows and jewellery demand in India and China carry the case.

Most of his demand figures match the World Gold Council's third-quarter tables, but three points need correcting. CMR could not confirm his November 6 closing price, and his "China" jewellery figures are the council's wider Greater China totals. India and China also made up about 55% of third-quarter jewellery demand, well short of his "almost two-thirds."

MINING.COM republished the column from Reuters on November 9, 2026. It carries this credit: "The views expressed here are those of Clyde Russell, a columnist for Reuters." Those views are his, and they are neither a Reuters house forecast nor CMR's. His points follow in his order, marked as opinion or checked fact.

Who is Clyde Russell, and does he sell anything?

Russell is a commodities columnist for Reuters, a news outlet. This is an opinion column. CMR found no fund, newsletter or metals product sold by him.

Where has the gold price been since its January record?

"Gold appears to be finding a floor around $4,000 an ounce as it battles competing short-term influences and a shift in how it is traded," Russell writes. That is his opinion, and CMR does not forecast prices.

Two prices matter here. The spot price is for gold delivered now, and Russell uses the Reuters spot quote. The COMEX front-month price is the daily settlement of the New York futures contract closest to delivery.

Checked, and not confirmed: Russell writes that spot gold "ended at $4,065.63 an ounce on November 6." Reuters' own wrap that afternoon had spot gold at $4,074.36 at 1:54 p.m. Eastern, so CMR does not treat his figure as an official close. December COMEX futures settled that day at $4,074.90.

Checked, and it holds: his spot low of $3,869.85 on October 30 matches the one-year low in that same Reuters wrap. The front-month COMEX settlement low that day was $3,885.70, Dow Jones Market Data shows.

Checked, in part: he says gold slipped below $4,000 several times in July before recovering. Kitco confirms one break on July 16, when spot gold traded near $3,975.20 in late US trading. CMR found no second dated July break.

Checked, and close: he writes that gold "came close to dropping below $4,000 an ounce in March," with a spot figure of $4,097.99 on March 23. Kitco reported that gold hit a four-month low that day before bouncing back, but CMR found no second source for his exact figure.

Checked, with the instrument named: his record of $5,594.82 on January 29 is the Reuters spot high during that day's trading. The front-month COMEX settlement record that day was lower, at $5,318.40. Front-month COMEX gold settled at $4,105.00 on November 9, which leaves it 22.82% below that record.

Spot gold fell 2% to $4,054.90 an ounce after the October CPI report, Kitco reported. That was in its 9:08 a.m. Eastern update on November 10.

In his opinion, speculation now drives more of gold's trading, though the tests of $4,000 have washed out much of the hot money.

Why does Russell say gold is in short-term limbo?

In his view, gold "remains in short-term limbo, caught between competing influences and vulnerable to swings in either direction."

"The main risk is weakness in equity markets as investors question the AI investment boom," he adds. He ties that to "the overwhelming victory in the US midterm elections by Democrats, many of whom questioned the need to build more energy-hungry data centres."

Checked, and the result holds: Democrats gained seven Senate seats in the November 3 midterms, a Reuters graphic shows. That produced a 54 to 44 majority, counting two independents. CNBC reported that they won both chambers of Congress. "Overwhelming" and the data centre link are his framing.

"Declining equities tend to spark a need for investors to liquidate other assets, and selling gold fits a historical pattern when stock markets correct," he writes. That historical pattern is his claim, and CMR has not tested it.

Checked, and October 30 fits his description: Kitco reported that day that a technology-led stock selloff "intensified liquidation pressure across precious metals." The World Gold Council said US gold fund outflows in October may have come as "some investors turned to their gold holdings as a ready source of liquidity."

Russell adds his forecast that stock weakness could turn into a medium-term support for gold if it spreads into the wider economy. CMR's November 6 post on gold trading like an AI stock covers a different view of the same link.

How do oil and Federal Reserve interest rates fit his view?

Russell says gold has struggled since January as rate expectations rose. He argues that falling stocks and "the recent drop in crude oil prices amid renewed hopes for an end to the Iran conflict" change the picture.

In his words, they "are likely to once again shift the monetary policy dial back to at least neutral, and possibly even to rate cuts next year." That is his forecast for policy.

Checked, and the oil drop holds: December WTI crude, the main US oil price, settled at $86.85 a barrel on November 9, down 4.38%. January Brent, the global benchmark, settled at $92.57 that day, down 5.85%.

Checked, and there is no peace deal: CNBC reported that oil fell after President Donald Trump downplayed the chance of renewed strikes on Iran. No settlement has been announced.

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16, according to its statement that day. The new target range was 3.75% to 4%. MINING.COM reported on October 30 that it was the first hike since July 2023.

Checked, and markets lean the other way for now: CME Group's FedWatch tool turns futures prices into the odds of a Fed move. After the strong November 6 jobs report, it showed an 81% chance of a December hike, up from 72.8%, Reuters reported.

On November 9, Kitco cited about 82.2% in afternoon trading and CNBC cited 84.5%, so every source CMR checked put a December hike as likely.

FedWatch showed a 98.8% chance of a December hike after the CPI report, up from 84% before it. IBTimes reported that reading at 8:58 a.m. Eastern on November 10.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the US government's benchmark borrowing rate, closed at 4.863% on November 9, Dow Jones Market Data shows. That is below its 52-week high of 5.310%, set on October 5. After the CPI report on November 10, the yield rose to 4.93% by 8:35 a.m. Eastern, CoinDesk reported. A December hike would not rule out cuts in 2027. Still, his rate-cut line is his opinion, and futures price a hike first.

Did central bank gold buying pick up in the third quarter?

In his opinion, gold remains attractive to central banks, especially if they worry about US deficits and debt costs.

He writes that "Central banks bought 321.2 metric tons of gold in the third quarter, up from 296.3 the previous quarter." He adds that this was "the most since the last three months of 2024, according to World Gold Council figures."

Checked, and it holds: the council's Table 1 shows 321.2 tonnes for the third quarter and 296.3 tonnes for the second. The council's unit, the tonne, is 1,000 kilograms. The last higher quarter was the fourth quarter of 2024, at 332.9 tonnes, in the council's full-year 2024 report.

He also writes that "central bank demand is price-sensitive." The weakest quarter was the first, "when demand was just 57.7 tons as the gold price hit its record high."

Checked, and it holds: Table 1 shows 57.7 tonnes for the first quarter. Central banks reported only about 120 tonnes of third-quarter buying, and the council says about 63% of the quarter's demand was unreported and estimated.

The council has also called buying sensitive to price, MINING.COM reported on November 3. But it added that the relationship "is not sufficiently stable to imply a firm floor for the gold price."

Russell expects the dip below $4,000 to draw more central bank buying this quarter, which is his forecast. CNBC, citing council data, said China's central bank added about 25.8 metric tons in October. That covers one country in one month.

For the wider report, see CMR's November 3 post on the council's third-quarter report and its November 5 post on central bank buying.

Are gold ETF inflows backing his case?

An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, trades on a stock exchange like a share, and gold ETFs hold metal in vaults. Russell writes that council data show "inflows of 19 tons in October into exchange-traded funds, adding to the 211.2 tons seen in the third quarter." That, he adds, "reversed a decline of 47.3 tons in the second."

Checked, and it holds: the council's October report, published November 5, shows global gold ETFs added 19 tonnes, taking holdings to a record 4,275 tonnes. Table 1 of the quarterly report shows a 211.2-tonne inflow in the third quarter, after a 47.3-tonne outflow in the second.

What do the jewellery numbers show for India and China?

He writes: "The third leg of gold demand is jewellery, which is led by China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of global demand."

Checked, and it does not hold for the third quarter: India used 99.9 tonnes and Greater China 71.9 tonnes, the council's Table 2 shows. Together that is 171.8 tonnes, or about 55% of world jewellery demand of 312.9 tonnes. Using mainland China alone, the share is about 53%.

"India's jewellery demand was 99.9 tons in the third quarter, according to the World Gold Council, the most since the fourth quarter of last year," he writes.

Checked, and it holds: India's demand rose from 75.1 tonnes in the second quarter and was below the 145.3 tonnes of late 2025. It was down 20% from a year earlier.

"China's jewellery demand rose to 71.9 tons in the third quarter, up from 55.7 tons in the second," he adds.

Checked, with a label error: those are the council's Greater China figures, which include Hong Kong and Taiwan. Mainland China alone was 65.7 tonnes in the third quarter, up from 50.5 tonnes. The rise is real, but the label needs to say Greater China.

Russell expects lower prices to lift jewellery buying, and says Indian traders report more interest as key festivals approach. That is his forecast, and the timing is late. Dhanteras, a traditional day for buying gold, fell on November 6, and Diwali fell on November 8, a day before his column ran.

What is Russell's longer-term case?

He closes by saying short-term moves lean on speculative trading tied to stocks, oil and rates. Then he writes: "But the longer-term bull case of asset diversification amid global fiscal issues and rising jewellery demand in India and China remains in place."

That is his opinion, and the facts behind it are mixed. Official buying and fund inflows rose in the third quarter, while world jewellery demand had its weakest third quarter in council data back to 2000.

How I read it. The useful part of this column is its split between time frames. Day to day, gold moves with tech stocks, oil, yields and Fed odds, as October 30 and the November 10 CPI report showed. The longer demand story runs on a slower clock, measured monthly or quarterly. Central bank buying, fiscal worries and jewellery demand at lower prices are a separate set of facts, and the two sets can point different ways at once.

What does this mean for a retirement-age reader?

Gold news mixes figures that move on different clocks, and those clocks can disagree. Prices, Treasury yields and FedWatch odds can change in a single session, as they did when gold fell with technology shares on October 30. Central bank buying, jewellery demand and gold ETF flows show up later, in monthly or quarterly tables.

A quiet quarter in the tables does not cancel a sharp daily move, and a sharp daily move does not rewrite those tables. That split is a way to read the numbers. For a longer view from a public institution, CMR's November 7 post on the World Bank's outlook covers its forecast.

What are people also asking about central bank gold buying?

How do Federal Reserve interest rates affect gold?

Gold pays no interest, so higher rates raise the cost of holding it compared with bonds, Reuters noted on November 6. That is why December hike odds move the gold price.

What to watch: which dates will test his view?

1. Tuesday, November 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern (released): the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. CPI tracks what households pay for everyday goods, and it rose 0.6% in September. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3%. No 12-month rates were published because October 2025 data were never collected during the 2025 funding lapse.
2. Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the US producer price index (PPI) for October, which tracks the prices businesses receive for what they sell.
3. Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve's rate decision at the end of its two-day meeting, which starts December 8. It tests his view that policy may ease back toward neutral.
4. Early December 2026: the World Gold Council's gold ETF report for November. The council says monthly updates usually come within a week of month end, and no exact date had been posted.

FAQ

Did central banks keep buying gold in the third quarter of 2026?

Yes. The World Gold Council estimates central banks bought 321.2 tonnes in the third quarter, up from 296.3 tonnes in the second. Only about 120 tonnes of that was reported by central banks, and the rest is the council's estimate.

Why has gold been volatile near $4,000 an ounce this fall?

Gold fell with technology shares on October 30, when spot gold hit a one-year low of $3,869.85. Since then, oil prices and the odds of a December Fed rate hike have pulled it in both directions. The hotter October CPI report pushed spot gold down 2% on November 10.

Is this article a call to buy gold or gold stocks?

No. It explains what Clyde Russell wrote and checks his figures against public data. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything.

Sources

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