Gold and Silver Price Outlook: Can Falling Oil Prices Trigger a Precious Metals Recovery?

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

The evidence so far gives a mixed answer to the headline. Over the seven trading sessions after October 30, through November 10, oil fell while gold and silver rose. On November 10, though, a hot October inflation report beat the falling oil, and both metals dropped.

The calendar matters here. October's consumer price index measured October, the month oil rose. The first report covering November, when oil fell, comes out December 10, the day after the Federal Reserve's December 9 decision.

So for the gold and silver price outlook, cheaper oil can reach the Fed before December 9 only through expectations, because no inflation report will show it first. CMR's October 19 post on a single morning of cheaper oil looked at a much shorter window.

How far have oil prices fallen since October 30?

WTI is the US crude benchmark, and Brent is the global benchmark. On November 10, Brent futures fell 1.2% to settle at $91.49 a barrel, Reuters reported. WTI fell 0.9% to $86.04, and both closed at their lowest since August 31 for a second day.

Brent fell 16% in the week to November 6, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Reuters reported. On October 30, WTI had settled at $104.12 and January Brent at $113.43.

By CMR's calculation from those Reuters settlements, WTI fell 17.4% to November 10 and January Brent fell 19.3%. The falling oil prices come from a high level. Front-month Brent was up 50.35% for the year on November 10, Dow Jones Market Data shows.

Oil was slightly higher early on November 11. Brent was up 0.2% at $91.71 in late-morning European trading, Euronews reported at 5:47 a.m. Eastern. WTI was up 0.1% at $86.12.

The drop followed news on the Iran war. President Trump said he would hold off on new strikes against Iran, Reuters reported.

A risk premium is the extra price traders pay for the chance that supply gets cut. ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said the market "has continued to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium built into prices in recent weeks," CNBC reported.

Attacks on shipping continue, CNBC reported. Thirty-seven ships were attacked in and near the Strait of Hormuz in October, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said, the most in any month of the war. Ten attacks have been recorded so far in November.

Even with a deal, LSEG analysts said, more flows would depend on "mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk."

How do lower oil prices affect gold and silver?

The link runs in steps. Oil feeds gasoline, gasoline feeds the consumer price index (CPI), and CPI feeds Fed rate expectations. Those expectations move Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn move gold and silver.

AAA's national average for regular gasoline fell 17 cents in a week to $3.98 a gallon on November 10. That was its first reading below $4 since July 19.

AAA says crude is about 50% of a gallon's price, and it named seasonal factors such as cheaper winter-blend fuel as the main drivers.

Refined fuels may lag. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its retail gasoline and diesel forecasts in November, because it expects refined fuel supplies to stay tight through 2027.

Gold and silver pay no interest. Opportunity cost is the income given up by holding something that pays nothing.

"Higher Fed rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver," J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer said in an August 13 note. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Jefferies and ING sell research and financial services.

What did the seven sessions after October 30 show?

Recent gold and silver market trends ran against oil. COMEX front-month futures are the New York contracts closest to delivery. By CMR's calculation from Dow Jones Market Data settlements, COMEX front-month gold rose 3.47% over the seven sessions. It settled at $4,020.70 on the last day, up from $3,885.70.

COMEX front-month silver rose 4.08% over the same window, by CMR's calculation, to $51.101 from $49.097. WTI fell 17.4% across those sessions.

October ran the other way. WTI rose 15.15% that month while COMEX front-month gold fell 6.49%, both by Dow Jones Market Data. Opposite moves in both periods do not prove that one caused the other.

A common cause is a real possibility. Bullion gained around 5% in the week to November 6 as Democrats won both chambers of Congress, Reuters reported. That result raised hopes for an end to the Iran war, and those same hopes pushed oil down, so both may have answered the same news.

The gold/oil ratio is the number of barrels of oil one ounce of gold buys. By CMR's calculation from exchange settlements, one ounce of COMEX front-month gold bought about 37.3 barrels of WTI on October 30.

By November 10 it bought about 46.7 barrels, using Dow Jones Market Data for gold and Reuters for WTI, whose $86.04 settlement Kitco also reported.

Why did gold fall on November 10 even though oil prices were falling?

The October CPI report came first. CPI rose 0.4% in October, seasonally adjusted, after 0.6% in September, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists had expected 0.3%, Kitco reported.

Core CPI leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing the most, to show the underlying trend. It rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected. The energy index rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September, and shelter accounted for over thirty percent of the monthly increase. There is no official annual rate for October, because the bureau did not collect October 2025 survey data during a lapse in government funding.

Kitco wrote that yields and the dollar rose after the report, "placing renewed pressure on precious metals despite another decline in crude oil prices." Higher yields, hike expectations and a firmer dollar "outweighed the potential support from lower energy prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty," it added.

Hike odds moved fast. CME FedWatch turns futures prices into odds of a Fed move. Before the report, it put the chance of a December hike to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% at 84%, IBTimes reported. At 8:58 a.m. Eastern, the chance was 98.8%.

A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. By late November 10, futures pricing showed an 88.2% chance of a 25-basis-point December hike, Kitco reported. The same reading showed an 11.8% chance of a 50-basis-point hike.

The quarter-point share was lower only because half-point bets rose. On November 11, a quarter-point hike was treated as fully priced and half-point odds were 10%, up from zero before the data, FXEmpire reported, citing CME FedWatch.

On November 10, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 4.99%, Babypips reported. It had briefly topped 5%, while the 2-year yield rose more than 18 basis points.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.6% to near 102.26. Babypips tied the moves to the CPI report and hawkish Fed comments. The US cash Treasury market is closed on November 11 for Veterans Day, so the latest closing yields are from November 10, though Treasury futures trade.

Late on November 10, spot gold was near $4,031.80, down 2.60%, Kitco reported. Spot silver was near $51.410, down 3.55%.

Will lower oil prices support gold prices?

Some market analysts say lower oil helps. On November 9, spot gold rose 1% by 1:35 p.m. Eastern as the dollar eased, Reuters reported, and "inflationary jitters took a back seat due to lower crude oil prices."

Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at American Gold Exchange, pointed to "lower crude oil prices today that suggest receding inflationary fears." He said that was positive for gold and silver, on the idea that central banks could ease. That is his opinion. On November 9, traders saw an 82.2% chance of a December hike, Reuters reported.

Others weigh oil as one factor among several. Standard Chartered said crude oil, inflation risks and equity markets are setting the tone for gold, investingLive reported on November 11.

investingLive's own summary said that "rising oil prices from the Iran war have fed inflation and Fed hike expectations." It added that gold "has struggled under that pressure rather than rallying as a haven."

The calendar limits what oil can do before the Fed meets. October's CPI covered a month when WTI rose 15.15%, by Dow Jones Market Data, and Brent rose 13.6%, Reuters reported. The November CPI report, the first to cover a month of falling oil, is due December 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Neither the size of any drop in November's energy index nor whether one appears can be known until then.

Does cheaper oil lower gold miners' costs?

Energy is a modest share of miners' costs. In a March 2026 note, Jefferies estimated energy at about 12% of the average gold miner's cost structure, MINING.COM reported.

All-in sustaining cost (AISC) is the industry's measure of what it costs to produce an ounce and keep the mine running. Jefferies said a 10% rise in oil could lift AISC by about $10 an ounce on average, varying with asset mix and hedging. Open-pit mines are the most exposed, because diesel powers the haul trucks.

Fuel bought ahead delays any pass-through. Agnico Eagle has bought about 70% of its Nunavut diesel needs through the 2027 delivery season, a November 10 World Gold Council post said. The price was about 30% above its 2026 budget, net of hedges.

The gold price matters more to margins. Average AISC margins fell 16% in the second quarter to US$2,582 an ounce as the average gold price fell 7.2% and costs rose, the same post said.

CMR's September 30 post on miners' fuel costs covers diesel contracts in more depth.

What is the gold and silver price outlook from forecasters?

Every forecast in this precious metals market outlook is the named institution's estimate, never CMR's. The gold and silver forecasts all came out on or before November 6, with the World Bank's data ending October 14. None reflects the full oil drop to November 10.

For oil, the World Bank's October 28 outlook gives a Brent yearly average of $91 a barrel for this year, using front-month futures. The EIA forecasts Brent spot prices averaging $104 in November and $99 in December, both monthly averages that differ from futures settlements.

For the gold price forecast 2026, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650, Reuters reported via Mining Weekly. That is the only year-end target for this year here. Goldman also cut its end-2027 target to $4,800, citing a more hawkish Fed.

The other gold figures are yearly averages. The World Bank's gold average is $4,600 for this year and $4,250 for 2027. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders gave a median of $4,495 for this year, and HSBC cut its average for this year to $4,490, Reuters reported.

A 2026 yearly average includes the higher prices of early 2026, so it can sit well above today's price without implying a rise from here.

CMR covered the Goldman cuts on November 11 and the World Bank outlook on November 7.

The silver price forecast 2026 figures are all averages. J.P. Morgan's August 13 forecast puts the yearly average for this year at $70.6 an ounce and the fourth-quarter average at $63.0. The World Bank's yearly average is $70, and the Reuters poll median is $70.30.

Poll analysts cited weaker solar panel demand and higher-for-longer rates. CMR could not verify a year-end silver target for this year from a named institution.

What would a gold price recovery have to cover?

Recovery depends on the measure. On COMEX settlements, front-month gold was 24.40% below its record of $5,318.40 from January 29, Dow Jones Market Data shows. For a silver price recovery on the same measure, front-month silver was 55.60% below its record of $115.08 from January 26.

Early on November 11, spot gold was $4,048.60 an ounce bid at 6:41 a.m. Eastern, up 0.42%, Kitco's live prices show. Spot silver was $52.76 bid, up 2.61%.

By CMR's calculation from Kitco's quotes, those gains won back about 16% of gold's November 10 drop and about 71% of silver's. The gold/silver ratio, the ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys, was 76.7 from those spot bids, by CMR's calculation.

How I read it. The seven sessions show oil and the metals moving apart, but the same hopes for peace may explain both moves. Lower inflation could ease pressure for Fed hikes, which helps a metal that pays no interest. It would also weaken one reason many people hold gold, as a hedge against rising prices. On November 10, Kitco judged that the October report outweighed cheaper oil, and the first report covering cheaper oil arrives only after the Fed decides.

What to watch: which dates come next?

1. Thursday, November 12, 2026, 12:00 p.m. Eastern: the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended November 6, moved from Wednesday for Veterans Day.
2. Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the US producer price index (PPI) for October. The IEA Oil Market Report comes out the same day at 4:00 a.m. Eastern.
3. Sunday, November 29, 2026: the monthly meeting of seven OPEC+ countries, per OPEC's November 1 statement.
4. Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve's meeting, with the rate decision and new economic projections on the second day.
5. Thursday, December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: November CPI, the first report covering a month in which oil fell, released after the Fed decides.

FAQ

Will lower oil prices support gold prices?

Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange told Reuters on November 9 that lower crude was positive for gold and silver. On November 10, Kitco said higher yields, hike expectations and a firmer dollar outweighed lower energy prices.

How do lower oil prices affect gold and silver?

Oil feeds gasoline, gasoline feeds the consumer price index, and inflation data move Fed rate odds, yields and the dollar. Higher yields and a firmer dollar weigh on metals that pay no interest. The first CPI report covering November's oil drop is due December 10, after the Fed decides.

Why did gold fall on November 10 even though oil prices were falling?

October CPI rose 0.4% against 0.3% expected. Kitco said the metals fell despite another decline in crude, as yields, hike expectations and the dollar rose. Spot gold fell 2.60% and spot silver 3.55%, Kitco reported.

Sources

1. Oil prices ease to two-month lows as US downplays further Iran strikes, Scott DiSavino, Reuters via Euronext, November 10, 2026. https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-prices-ease-two-month-lows-us-downplays-further-iran-strikes
2. Oil down more than $7 a barrel in post settlement trade as Trump signals restraint on Iran, Reuters via Euronext, November 9, 2026. https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-down-more-7-barrel-post-settlement-trade-trump-signals-restraint-iran
3. Oil jumps 2%, settles at 6-month highs on fears of escalation in Iran, Arathy Somasekhar, Reuters via Euronext, October 30, 2026. https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-jumps-2-settles-6-month-highs-fears-escalation-iran
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