Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Price Forecast for 2026 and 2027: Is a Bigger Correction Ahead?

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Goldman Sachs cut its end-2027 gold forecast to $4,800 an ounce from $5,400, Reuters reported. The same November 5 note lowered its forecast for the end of this year to $4,150 from $4,650. The latest Goldman Sachs gold price forecast is lower, but the market data since that note do not yet show a larger decline.

COMEX front-month gold, the New York futures contract closest to delivery, settled 1.99% lower from November 5 to November 10, by CMR's calculation. Its bigger drop came earlier. On November 10 it settled 24.40% below its January 29 record, which already counts as a correction by the usual definition.

CMR's November 7 post on the end-2026 cut covered the $4,150 figure. This piece looks at the 2027 numbers, how they compare with other forecasts, and what gold prices have done since the note. Goldman Sachs sells research and financial services.

What did Goldman Sachs change in its 2027 gold forecast?

Strategists led by Lina Thomas lowered the bank's end-2027 forecast to $4,800 an ounce from $5,400, Investing.com reported, carrying Reuters. A year-end forecast is the price the bank expects on the last day of that year.

By CMR's calculation, the end-2027 cut was $600, or 11.1%. The end-2026 cut was $500, or 10.8%, by CMR's calculation. Both cuts revise the bank's estimates. Neither one is a move in the market price.

The bank kept a positive longer view, tied to buying by central banks. Its strategists wrote that central bank demand "drives most of the 15% price upside we forecast by end-2027." That 15% is Goldman's own figure, measured from prices at the time of the November 5 note.

Goldman expects central banks to buy 60 tonnes of gold a month through 2026 and 2027, Investing.com reported. The pre-2022 average was 17 tonnes a month. A nowcast is an estimate of what is happening now from the latest data, and Goldman's puts current buying at 85 tonnes a month.

That nowcast is a seasonally adjusted three-month figure. It uses a different method from the World Gold Council's quarterly totals, so the two measures do not line up one for one.

Why did Goldman Sachs cut its gold price forecast?

Goldman cited the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance in recent months, Reuters reported via Mining Weekly. A hawkish Fed is one that leans toward higher interest rates to fight inflation.

The bank's base case assumes the Fed's hawkish shift and a December rate hike will keep investor "debasement concerns" contained, Investing.com reported. Debasement is the worry that a currency loses buying power over time, often because of heavy government debt.

If that worry stays contained, the bank expects less demand for gold as a hedge, or protection, against policy risks. Goldman measures that demand partly through call options, contracts that pay off if a price rises. It expects that demand to return toward its historical average instead of the high levels seen earlier this year.

The strategists compared the setup to 2022. In that year, central banks gave gold strong steady buying, but higher interest rates weighed on how investors positioned themselves, the strategists said.

This is Goldman's opinion about how investors will behave, based on its reading of Fed decisions and rate pricing.

What is Goldman Sachs' latest gold price target?

Goldman's latest public figures come from the November 5 note. They are $4,150 an ounce for the end of this year and $4,800 for the end of 2027. CMR's searches through November 11, 2026, found no public report of a later change to the Goldman Sachs gold forecast.

That is the latest change CMR could locate in public reports. Goldman sends research privately to clients, and CMR has not seen every distribution.

Each gold price target is the bank's estimate, never CMR's, and each one has conditions attached. Goldman estimates gold would reach $4,660 by the end of 2027 if the Fed hikes again in March 2027. The same applies if the Fed delays cuts or raises its terminal rate, the peak rate of a hiking cycle.

The bank's economists expect Fed rate cuts from late 2027 through early 2028, Investing.com reported. Goldman expects further support for gold once those cuts begin in the second half of 2027.

The bank also named risks on each side. Concerns about government finances could lift gold above its $4,800 base case, the strategists said. Higher oil prices could add pressure through systematic selling, meaning trades made by computer rules rather than by people choosing each one.

Sharp stock market drops could first pull gold lower as investors raise cash, the bank said, according to Mining Weekly. For trend-following funds and macro hedge funds, the strategists said the next three to six months remain hard. They cited a rising funds rate, uncertain energy prices and tight limits on losses.

Longer-horizon investors may view the decline differently, the strategists said. That is Goldman's view about other investors, and CMR makes no judgment on it here.

The gap between Goldman's figures and today's price can be measured, with care. StreetStats put spot gold, the price for metal delivered now, at $4,058.55 at 2:30 a.m. Eastern on November 11. By CMR's calculation, $4,150 is about $91, or 2.3%, above that snapshot.

By CMR's calculation, $4,800 is about $741, or 18.3%, above the same snapshot. These gaps compare a year-end target with a spot price at one moment, so they are rough. Goldman's 15% is a separate figure, measured from prices at the time of its note.

How does the Goldman Sachs gold price forecast compare with other estimates?

Goldman gives year-end targets, while the three other sources here give yearly averages, which cover every day of the year. A yearly average for 2026 includes the high prices of January, so it differs from a year-end target, and it sets no price floor.

The World Bank's October 28 Commodity Markets Outlook gives a yearly average gold price of $4,600 an ounce for 2026. Its 2027 average is $4,250, and the bank's data cutoff was October 14.

Reuters polled 30 analysts and traders over three weeks and reported the results on October 27. The median 2026 average was $4,495. That was down from $4,509 three months earlier.

The same poll's median 2027 average was $4,650, up from $4,610 in the previous poll. A median is the middle answer when all responses are lined up from lowest to highest.

On October 1, HSBC cut its average for this year to $4,490 from $4,560, Reuters reported. It cut its 2027 average to $4,825 from $4,925.

For the gold price forecast 2026, the type of figure matters. Goldman's year-end target of $4,150 sits below all three 2026 yearly averages, from the World Bank, the Reuters poll and HSBC.

For the gold price forecast 2027, Goldman's year-end $4,800 sits above the World Bank's yearly average of $4,250. It also sits above the Reuters poll median average of $4,650, and close to HSBC's yearly average of $4,825.

These are each institution's estimates and none is CMR's outlook. The World Bank's numbers get a closer look in CMR's November 7 post on the World Bank forecast.

What have gold prices done since November 5?

On November 5, COMEX front-month gold for November delivery settled at $4,102.50, up 1.02%, Dow Jones Market Data shows. That settlement was 22.86% below the January 29 record and 5.16% lower for the year.

On November 10, the same contract settled at $4,020.70, down 2.05% on the day. Dow Jones Market Data put it 24.40% below its record settlement of $5,318.40 and 7.05% lower for the year.

By CMR's calculation, that is a gold price decline of $81.80, or 1.99%, across those settlements. The 24.40% figure is Dow Jones Market Data's own.

Kitco's spot quotes tell a similar story. Spot gold was near $4,087.26 late on November 5, up 0.64%, Kitco reported. Earlier that day it reached an intraday high of $4,148.00, its highest since October 20.

Late on November 10, Kitco put spot gold near $4,031.80, down 2.60% on the day. By CMR's calculation, the move between those two Kitco quotes was a decline of $55.46, or 1.36%.

The November 10 session alone fell further than the whole move since November 5, which means gold had risen in the days between. That session came after the consumer price index (CPI), a measure of what households pay for goods and services, was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI rose 0.4% in October, seasonally adjusted.

Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3%. The bureau published no 12-month rates because October 2025 data were never collected during the 2025 funding lapse.

Kitco tied gold's November 10 drop to higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield, the US government's benchmark borrowing rate, briefly moved above 5.00%, Kitco reported.

Babypips put the 10-year yield near 4.99% at the close and noted that gold pays no interest. It said the US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, rose 0.6% to near 102.26.

Rate odds moved sharply in the same session. CME FedWatch, a tool that turns futures prices into odds of a Fed move, showed a 98.8% chance of a December hike at 8:58 a.m. Eastern, IBTimes reported.

Kitco's later evening report showed an 88.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The same report showed an 11.8% chance of a 50-basis-point move.

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October meeting, Kitco noted. CMR's November 11 post comparing gold, silver and Bitcoin by time window covers how that day hit other assets.

Is a bigger gold price correction coming?

A correction is commonly defined as a fall of 10% or more from a peak. By that measure, the gold market correction has already happened. On November 10, COMEX front-month gold settled 24.40% below its January 29 record. That is more than the 20% often used as a rough line for a bear market.

The open question is whether a larger gold price correction from this week's levels has begun. Through November 10, the data show a decline of 1.99% in COMEX settlements since November 5, by CMR's calculation. That move is small next to the 10% definition, and its sharpest session came after the CPI report.

Some evidence on buying points the other way. Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold metal for investors and trade like shares, added 19 tonnes in October, the World Gold Council reported. That took their holdings to a record 4,275 tonnes.

The inflow was about $2.7 billion and the fourth straight month of additions, the council said, though North American funds had modest outflows.

Central banks bought an estimated 321.2 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2026, up from 296.3 tonnes in the second, the council reported. Central banks themselves reported only about 120 tonnes, and the rest is the council's estimate.

The council has also cautioned against reading too much into that buying. "The relationship is not sufficiently stable to imply a firm floor for the gold price," it said, as MINING.COM reported on November 3.

No one can know in advance whether a bigger decline will follow, and CMR does not make a gold price prediction. The facts so far are a 24.40% fall from the record, a small move since the cut, and a Fed meeting on December 9.

How I read it. Goldman cut its targets by about 11%, by CMR's calculation, and those cuts track a change in its rate view. The big decline in COMEX gold came between January 29 and November 5. Since the note, the price has slipped about 2% in settlements, with one bad day after CPI. The December Fed meeting is the event Goldman's own base case depends on.

What does this mean for a retirement-age reader?

Forecast headlines often mix two kinds of numbers. A year-end target and a yearly average answer different questions, so a lower target can sit beside a higher average without either source changing its mind.

A cut to a forecast is also a different event from a fall in price. Goldman's revision tells readers how one bank's rate assumptions changed. The settlement data tell readers what gold has done, and the two can move on separate days.

The gold investment outlook from any single bank also rests on stated conditions. Goldman put its own numbers on a March 2027 hike scenario, which shows how much its estimate depends on the Fed. The next dated facts arrive in November and December, listed below.

What to watch: which dates come next?

1. Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the US producer price index (PPI) for October, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. PPI tracks the prices businesses receive for what they sell.
2. Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: October Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, another inflation measure.
3. Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve's meeting, with the decision on the second day. This is the meeting assumed in Goldman's December-hike base case.
4. Early December 2026: the World Gold Council's gold ETF report for November. No exact date has been posted.

FAQ

Why did Goldman Sachs cut its gold price forecast?

Goldman Sachs cited the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance in recent months. Its strategists expect a December rate hike to keep investor worries about currency debasement contained. So they see demand for gold as a hedge returning toward its historical average.

Is a bigger gold price correction coming?

No one can know that in advance, and CMR does not forecast prices. COMEX front-month gold settled 24.40% below its January 29 record on November 10, which already counts as a correction. From November 5 to November 10, the settlement fell 1.99%, by CMR's calculation.

What is Goldman Sachs' latest gold price target?

In its November 5 note, Goldman Sachs set its end-2026 gold forecast at $4,150 an ounce. It set its end-2027 forecast at $4,800. That is the latest public change CMR located through November 11, 2026.

Sources

1. Goldman Sachs trims gold forecasts as Fed stays hawkish, Reuters via Mining Weekly, November 6, 2026. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/goldman-sachs-trims-gold-forecasts-as-fed-stays-hawkish-2026-11-06
2. Comex Gold Settles 2.05% Lower at $4020.70, Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar, November 10, 2026, 1:49 p.m. Eastern. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202611108909/comex-gold-settles-205-lower-at-402070-data-talk
3. Goldman lowers year-end gold price forecast on hawkish Fed shift, Vahid Karaahmetovic, Investing.com (© Reuters), November 6, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-lowers-yearend-gold-price-forecast-on-hawkish-fed-shift-5006662
4. Gold, Silver & Bitcoin, StreetStats, November 11, 2026, 2:30 a.m. Eastern. https://streetstats.finance/liquidity/gold-silver-bitcoin
5. Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, forecast tables, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
6. Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central-bank demand lends support, Noel John, Reuters via Investing.com, October 27, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/strong-dollar-high-yields-drag-on-gold-outlook-but-centralbank-demand-lends-support-4975805
7. HSBC lowers 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,490/oz, Reuters, October 1, 2026, via TradingView https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026:newsml_L4N45N0ZG:0-hsbc-lowers-2026-average-gold-price-forecast-to-4-490-oz/ and Yahoo! News Japan https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/7e725d81740d17c8eed640387e4bd3f2b7eead35
8. Comex Gold Settles 1.02% Higher at $4102.50, Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar, November 5, 2026, 1:49 p.m. Eastern. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2026110517195/comex-gold-settles-102-higher-at-410250-data-talk
9. Gold holds gains, silver slips as Wall Street plunges, Fed hike bets ease (Kitco PM Report), Kitco News, November 5, 2026, updated 5:21 p.m. Eastern. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-05/gold-holds-gains-silver-slips-wall-street-plunges-fed-hike-bets-ease-kitco
10. Gold, silver plunge as hotter U.S. inflation raises prospect of larger Fed rate hike (Kitco PM Report), Kitco News, November 10, 2026, updated 6:40 p.m. Eastern. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-10/gold-silver-plunge-hotter-us-inflation-raises-prospect-larger-fed-rate-hike
11. Consumer Price Index news release, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
12. Financial and Forex Market Recap, Babypips, November 10, 2026. https://www.babypips.com/news/daily-financial-forex-market-recap-2026-11-10
13. Inflation Came in Hotter Than Expected in October. A Rate Hike is All But Certain Now., IBTimes, November 10, 2026, 8:58 a.m. Eastern. https://www.ibtimes.com/hotter-october-inflation-fed-rate-hike-3809598
14. Gold ETF Flows: October 2026, World Gold Council, November 5, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/11
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16. Canada gold output jumps 22% as global supply slips, MINING.COM, November 3, 2026. https://www.mining.com/canada-gold-output-jumps-22-as-global-supply-slips/
17. Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
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