Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Gold prices today are recovering part of Tuesday's drop. Spot gold was $4,049.90 an ounce bid at 5:50 a.m. Eastern on November 11, up 0.45%, Kitco's live prices show. Spot silver was $52.83 bid, up 2.75%.
Both metals fell sharply on November 10 after the October consumer price index (CPI) report beat forecasts. The report came out that day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and it was the last CPI report the Federal Reserve will see before its December 9 decision.
The chain ran from inflation to rate-hike odds, then to Treasury yields and the dollar, and then to the metals. One session's reaction does not set a pattern.
Where are gold prices today after Tuesday's CPI selloff?
Spot gold is the price for metal delivered now, and on Kitco it traded between $4,025.80 and $4,067.90 in the session to 5:50 a.m. Eastern on November 11.
Silver prices today show the larger bounce. Spot silver was up $1.42 an ounce from Tuesday's close, while spot gold was up $18.10, Kitco's live prices show.
The gold/silver ratio is the number of ounces of silver that one ounce of gold buys, and by CMR's calculation from those Kitco spot bids it was 76.7.
New York futures closed lower on Tuesday. COMEX front-month gold, the futures contract closest to delivery, settled at $4,020.70 for November delivery, Dow Jones Market Data shows. That was down $84.30, or 2.05%, its largest one-day decline since October 30.
COMEX front-month silver for November delivery settled at $51.101, down $1.463 or 2.78%.
What did the October US CPI inflation data show?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said CPI, which tracks the prices households pay for goods and services, rose 0.4% in October, seasonally adjusted. That followed a 0.6% rise in September. Economists had expected 0.3%, Kitco and IBTimes reported.
Core CPI leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing the most, to show the underlying trend. It rose 0.3% in October, the same pace as in September and August. Economists had expected 0.2%, the same reports said.
Shelter, which covers rent and the cost of owning a home, rose 0.3% and accounted for over thirty percent of the monthly increase, the bureau said. Energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September, while food rose 0.5%.
There is no official annual rate for October, for either headline or core CPI. The bureau did not collect October 2025 survey data because of a lapse in government funding. Without that base month, it could not publish 12-month changes for most October 2026 indexes.
The next CPI report, for November, is scheduled for Thursday, December 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the bureau said. That is the day after the Fed's December 9 decision.
How did the CPI report move the Federal Reserve interest rate decision odds?
CME FedWatch is a tool that turns futures prices into odds of a Fed move. Before the report, it put the chance of a December hike to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% at 84%, IBTimes reported. At 8:58 a.m. Eastern, shortly after the report, the odds stood at 98.8%.
A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points is a quarter point. By late on November 10, futures pricing showed an 88.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting, Kitco reported.
The same late reading showed an 11.8% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. The quarter-point share shrank only because half-point bets grew, and together the two readings left a hike of some size close to fully priced.
A separate CME FedWatch reading came early on November 11, FXEmpire reported. Traders treated a quarter-point December hike as fully priced and put the chance of a half-point move at 10%, up from zero before the data. That reading came at a different time from Kitco's, so the two stay separate.
Before the report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that a half-point hike was worth considering in December if core CPI rose about 0.3% or more, Babypips reported. October core CPI came in at 0.3%.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point increases, Babypips reported. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% in October, with two policymakers favoring an immediate increase, Kitco noted.
The November 6 jobs report pointed the same way, Kitco noted, with October payrolls up 165,000 against about 65,000 expected.
Why did yields and the dollar rise?
Higher odds of a larger hike lift the return on short-term US bonds and draw money into the dollar. The 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 18 basis points on November 10, Babypips reported.
The 10-year Treasury yield, the US government's benchmark borrowing rate, rose about 10 basis points to near 4.99%. It briefly topped 5% during the day, Babypips and Kitco reported.
The US Treasury also sold $42 billion of 10-year notes that day at a high yield of 5.020%, Babypips reported. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, rose 0.6% to near 102.26. Babypips gave these as approximate levels at the 4:00 p.m. Eastern close.
The US Treasury market is closed on November 11 for Veterans Day, so the latest Treasury yields are from the November 10 close.
How will US CPI data affect gold and silver prices?
On November 10, the effect ran through rates. Gold pays no interest and is priced in dollars, Babypips and Kitco noted, so higher yields and a stronger dollar weigh on it. Kitco tied the metals' drop to higher yields and a firmer dollar.
Late that day, spot gold was near $4,031.80, down $107.60 or 2.60%, Kitco reported. Spot silver was near $51.410, down $1.894 or 3.55%.
This is why gold fell on an inflation surprise, even though many people hold gold as a hedge against inflation. The inflation impact on gold prices that day came through the expected Fed response, which raised the income on rival assets.
The November 10 reaction shows that rate channel at work. It does not prove that gold fails as a long-term store of value, and it does not prove the opposite either.
Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan sell research and financial services. Goldman Sachs strategists led by Lina Thomas said on November 5 that the setup increasingly resembles 2022, Investing.com reported, carrying Reuters. In that year, central banks gave gold strong steady buying, but higher rates weighed on investors' holdings, they said.
Goldman's base case, which is its opinion, assumes a December hike will keep investor "debasement concerns" contained. Debasement is the worry that a currency loses buying power over time.
Why did silver move more than gold in both directions?
On November 10, Kitco's spot quotes show silver fell 3.55% while gold fell 2.60%. By 5:50 a.m. Eastern on November 11, spot silver had risen 2.75% and spot gold 0.45%.
J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy, explained the pattern in an August 13 J.P. Morgan Global Research article. "Higher Fed rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver," he said. Opportunity cost is the income given up by holding an asset that pays nothing.
Shearer also said that "on days when gold slips, silver has a much more outsized tumble."
By CMR's calculation from Kitco's spot quotes, silver had regained about 75% of its November 10 drop by early November 11. Gold had regained about 17% of its drop over the same stretch.
In the same article, J.P. Morgan expected the gold/silver ratio to move toward 70 over the second half of 2026. For 2027, it expected a ratio around 75. Both are the bank's estimates from before this week's data.
Will gold prices fall after higher US CPI inflation?
Gold did fall on the day the higher reading came out. The day after, spot gold traded higher in early hours, Kitco's live prices show. Those two sessions point in opposite directions, so together they set no pattern.
The larger decline came earlier in the year. COMEX front-month gold was down 7.05% for 2026 at the November 10 settlement, Dow Jones Market Data shows. It was 24.40% below its record settlement of $5,318.40 on January 29.
COMEX front-month silver was down 27.14% for the year at the same settlement. It was 55.60% below its record settlement of $115.08 on January 26.
No one can know whether gold will fall further after this report, and CMR does not forecast prices. CMR's November 11 post comparing returns across five time windows covers how this week fits longer periods.
Can gold and silver recover after US CPI data?
Both metals rose in the early hours of November 11, and silver regained most of its drop. The rebound came without a fresh test from rates, because the Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day and bond yields could not respond.
Official buying continued in the background. China's official gold reserves rose by 830,000 ounces in October to 78.3 million ounces, China Daily reported on November 7. That was a 24th straight monthly increase and the largest since September 2023.
Central banks bought an estimated 321.2 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2026, the World Gold Council reported on November 3. Central banks themselves reported only about 120 tonnes, and the rest is the council's estimate.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), funds that trade like shares and hold metal for investors, added 19 tonnes of gold in October, the council reported. That was a fourth straight month of inflows and took holdings to a record 4,275 tonnes.
What do the gold and silver price forecasts for 2026 say?
These are each institution's estimates, and none is CMR's outlook. Goldman Sachs gives year-end targets, the price it expects on the last day of a year. On November 5, Goldman cut its target for the end of this year to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650, Reuters reported via Mining Weekly.
It cut its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400, citing a more hawkish Fed. CMR's November 11 post on Goldman's 2026 and 2027 cuts covers those numbers in detail.
The other gold figures are yearly averages. The World Bank's October 28 outlook puts this year's gold average at $4,600, using data to October 14. Its averages for the next two years are $4,250 and then $4,000.
A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders gave a median average of $4,495 for this year, Reuters reported on October 27. Its median for 2027 was $4,650. On October 1, HSBC cut its average for this year to $4,490 from $4,560, Reuters reported.
HSBC also cut its 2027 average to $4,825 from $4,925, and its economists expected a December Fed hike. In this gold price forecast 2026 group, Goldman's $4,150 is the only year-end target for this year.
A 2026 yearly average includes the higher prices of early 2026. So it can sit well above today's price without implying a rise from here. CMR's November 7 post on the World Bank outlook looks at its figures more closely.
The silver price forecast 2026 figures are all averages. J.P. Morgan's August 13 forecast, revised down from May, puts silver at a 2026 yearly average of $70.6. Its fourth-quarter average for this year is $63.0, a quarterly figure, and its 2027 yearly average is $63.9.
The World Bank's silver yearly average is $70 for this year, followed by $62 and then $58. The Reuters poll's median silver averages were $70.30 for this year and $66.75 for 2027.
Analysts in that poll cited weakening photovoltaic, or solar panel, demand and silver's exposure to rates staying higher for longer. CMR could not verify a year-end silver target for this year from a named institution. So every silver figure in this gold and silver price forecast roundup is an average.
How I read it. The November 10 sequence ran in order: a CPI beat, near-certain hike odds with a larger move in play, higher yields and a firmer dollar, then lower metals. The early rebound on November 11 came on a day when bond markets were closed, so it tells us little about how rates will treat gold next. That answer comes with the data around December 9.
What does this mean for a retirement-age reader?
A single inflation report can move gold and silver more through interest rates than through inflation itself. On November 10, the metals fell because the expected Fed response raised the income on bonds and the value of the dollar.
Silver's swings were larger than gold's both ways in these two sessions. The calendar ahead holds several more tests of the same chain.
What to watch: which dates come next?
- Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the US producer price index (PPI) for October, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. PPI tracks the prices businesses receive for what they sell.
- Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Personal Income and Outlays for October, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index the Fed watches, and the second estimate of third-quarter GDP comes the same morning.
- Friday, December 4, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve's meeting, with the decision and new economic projections on the second day.
- Thursday, December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: November CPI, the first CPI report after the Fed's decision.
FAQ
How will US CPI data affect gold and silver prices?
On November 10, the October CPI report beat forecasts, raised the odds of a larger Fed rate hike, and lifted Treasury yields and the dollar. Spot gold fell 2.60% and spot silver fell 3.55%, Kitco reported. That is one session's reaction, and it does not set a pattern.
Will gold prices fall after higher US CPI inflation?
Gold fell on November 10, the day the higher October CPI reading came out. By 5:50 a.m. Eastern on November 11, spot gold was up 0.45% on Kitco. No one can know the next move, and CMR does not forecast prices.
Can gold and silver recover after US CPI data?
Both rose early on November 11. By CMR's calculation from Kitco spot quotes, gold had regained about 17% of its November 10 drop and silver about 75%. Treasury markets were closed for Veterans Day, so the rebound came without a fresh test from bond yields.
Sources
- Live Market Prices, Kitco, November 11, 2026, 5:50 a.m. Eastern. https://www.kitco.com/price
- Comex Gold Settles 2.05% Lower at $4020.70, Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar, November 10, 2026, 1:49 p.m. Eastern. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202611108909/comex-gold-settles-205-lower-at-402070-data-talk
- Comex Silver Settles 2.78% Lower at $51.101, Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar, November 10, 2026, 1:49 p.m. Eastern. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202611108910/comex-silver-settles-278-lower-at-51101-data-talk
- Consumer Price Index, October 2026, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
- Gold, silver plunge as hotter U.S. inflation raises prospect of larger Fed rate hike (Kitco PM Report), Kitco News, November 10, 2026, updated 6:40 p.m. Eastern. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-10/gold-silver-plunge-hotter-us-inflation-raises-prospect-larger-fed-rate-hike
- Inflation Came in Hotter Than Expected in October. A Rate Hike is All But Certain Now., Demian Bio, IBTimes, November 10, 2026, 8:58 a.m. Eastern. https://www.ibtimes.com/hotter-october-inflation-fed-rate-hike-3809598
- Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Hot CPI Lifts Jumbo Hike Odds, Arslan Ali, FXEmpire, November 11, 2026, 1:30 a.m. Eastern. https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-silver-price-forecast-hot-cpi-lifts-jumbo-hike-odds-can-gold-hold-4051-1643784
- Financial and Forex Market Recap: November 10, 2026, Babypips, November 10, 2026. https://www.babypips.com/news/daily-financial-forex-market-recap-2026-11-10
- Goldman lowers year-end gold price forecast on hawkish Fed shift, Vahid Karaahmetovic, Investing.com (© Reuters), November 6, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-lowers-yearend-gold-price-forecast-on-hawkish-fed-shift-5006662
- The path for silver prices in 2026 and 2027, J.P. Morgan Global Research, August 13, 2026. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices
- China ramps up gold purchases, posting the biggest increase in 3 years, China Daily, November 7, 2026. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202611/07/WS6aef073be4b03ebf8519b105.html
- Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026, World Gold Council, November 3, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026
- Gold ETF Flows: October 2026, World Gold Council, November 5, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/11
- Goldman Sachs trims gold forecasts as Fed stays hawkish, Reuters via Mining Weekly, November 6, 2026. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/goldman-sachs-trims-gold-forecasts-as-fed-stays-hawkish-2026-11-06
- Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, forecast tables, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
- Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central-bank demand lends support, Noel John, Reuters via Investing.com, October 27, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/strong-dollar-high-yields-drag-on-gold-outlook-but-centralbank-demand-lends-support-4975805
- HSBC lowers 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,490/oz, Reuters, October 1, 2026, via TradingView https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026:newsml_L4N45N0ZG:0-hsbc-lowers-2026-average-gold-price-forecast-to-4-490-oz/ and Yahoo! News Japan https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/7e725d81740d17c8eed640387e4bd3f2b7eead35
- Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
- Release Schedule, US Bureau of Economic Analysis. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
- Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
