Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Friday, November 13, 2026
BMO Capital Markets answers its own question with a condition. In a report Kitco covered on November 11, BMO said the bull case "requires investment demand not just to remain strong, but to remain exceptionally strong for years."
The reason is silver industrial demand from solar panels, which BMO expects to shrink through 2030. The Silver Institute's November 12 figures agree that solar is falling, yet they still show a sixth straight deficit.
Both can hold at once, because the two sides count bars and coins differently.
BMO's research goes to clients, so CMR relies on Kitco's and Bloomberg's reporting of it.
What is BMO's outlook on the silver market?
The team, led by George Heppel and Helen Amos, expects the gold/silver ratio to trade around 85 over the next four years, Kitco reported. That compares with about 76 when the report came out.
The ratio is the number of ounces of silver that buy one ounce of gold. A rising ratio means silver doing worse than gold, which can happen even when silver rises in dollars.
Kitco reported that the analysts called the loss of silver's main growth driver, the solar sector, the biggest risk for the metal.
"On our estimates, the consumption surplus rises to a historical record high by 2030, driven principally by the reversal in solar demand," the analysts said.
"Those excess ounces still need to find a home," the analysts added. History, they said, "suggests that doing so requires silver to trade at a sufficiently low relative price to incentivise investors to absorb them."
Relative price here means silver's price relative to gold. That is why BMO expresses its call through the ratio.
Bloomberg quoted the same note: "The silver market is approaching an important changing of the guard." Solar accounted for 55% of the increase in silver demand in the past five years, BMO said.
BMO expects solar to "give back roughly half of that increase by 2030, turning silver's biggest recent growth engine into an outright drag."
Kitco's live page showed spot silver at $49.88 bid at 8:16 a.m. ET on November 13. That was down 0.14% on the day. Its page clock read 1:16 p.m., which is UTC.
Spot gold was $3,885.70 bid at 8:15 a.m. ET. That was up 0.24% on the day. By CMR's calculation from those two Kitco bids, the gold/silver ratio was about 77.9.
BMO's figure of about 76 came from its own report at an earlier time, so CMR does not treat the gap as a precise move. CMR's post on this week's silver rebound covers the price path.
For context, COMEX front month silver futures settled at $49.97 on November 12, Yahoo Finance data show. That was 28.7% below the 2025 final settlement of $70.13, by CMR's calculation.
What did BMO forecast for silver prices?
The coverage CMR found of the November report gives no new BMO price forecast. BMO's latest published silver forecasts are from its fourth quarter update of September 28, Kitco reported.
BMO forecast a fourth quarter 2026 quarterly average of about $67.40 an ounce, down from $71.40.
For the first quarter of 2027, it forecast a quarterly average of $69.30, down from $73.50. Over the long term, it raised its long term average to about $47 from $36.
In that update, BMO said faster than expected thrifting and slower solar deployment were loosening industrial balances. It expected silver to keep underperforming gold in the coming quarters.
BMO's $67.40 was published when spot silver traded at about $61.19, Kitco reported, before the October and November drop below $50. CMR has not seen a BMO update since, and it covered that forecast in its September 29 post.
For context, COMEX front month silver futures averaged about $55.38 on daily settlements from October 1 to November 12, by CMR's calculation. That is a different instrument and window, so CMR computes no gap to $67.40.
In a note reported on January 15, BMO said "silver demand from solar is likely past its peak," citing plateauing installations and persistent thrifting.
In the same note, BMO estimated that solid state batteries could add up to 100 million ounces of silver demand by 2030, but only if commercialisation succeeds.
On March 24, BMO forecast a 2026 yearly average of $74.50. Its 2027 yearly average was $64.20. Those came before the September update and may since have changed.
Why is solar the swing factor for silver industrial demand?
BMO's first reason is the grid: "Renewable capacity has grown faster than the infrastructure needed to accommodate it," the analysts said.
"Grids, interconnectors, batteries and other sources of flexible demand simply have not kept pace."
BMO's second reason is price. It said the surge that briefly took silver above $120 an ounce earlier this year gave solar makers a huge incentive to use less silver. More and more, BMO said, they are replacing it altogether.
Using less silver in each solar cell is called thrifting. "Photovoltaic silver intensity had already been on a downward trend in recent years," the analysts added.
Metals Focus, which calculates the Silver Institute's figures, sees the same turn. "I would actually say that the record level of solar demand is behind us, and it will continue to weaken," managing director Philip Newman told Bloomberg.
Newman added that solar "will still be an important part of the market for a good few years."
What is driving silver demand in 2026?
The Silver Institute released its 2026 estimates on November 12, presented by Philip Newman and Sarah Tomlinson of Metals Focus. Industrial demand is forecast at 640 million ounces, down 3% from 657 million.
That is still about 22% above its 2019 level, the release said. Industrial demand outside solar (PV) is forecast to rise 4.5% to 492 million ounces.
Vehicle electrification and expanding charging infrastructure support that growth, the release said. In PV, installations fell short of expectations, particularly in China, and record prices sped up thrifting and substitution.
By CMR's calculation from the release's figures, PV demand is about 148 million ounces in 2026. Bloomberg reports that PV silver demand is set to slump 21% this year.
Jewelry demand is forecast to drop 22% and silverware 17%. Bar and coin demand is forecast at 215 million ounces, down 2%.
Total demand is forecast at 1.081 billion ounces, down 5%. So 2026 is a year where the parts outside solar grew and solar shrank.
On supply, mine output is forecast to edge down 0.5% to 834 million ounces. Recycling is forecast to rise 6% to 210 million ounces, its highest since 2012.
Why do the two counts of silver supply and demand disagree?
The Silver Institute counts bar and coin buying as demand. On that basis, demand exceeds supply by 35 million ounces in 2026, the sixth deficit in a row.
BMO sees that convention as misleading, Bloomberg reported. Bars and coins arguably stay in above ground stocks, and they can come back to market if prices rise enough.
BMO instead compares supply with the metal consumed by manufacturers and jewelers. By that measure, it expects an increasingly large surplus that investors must absorb.
The Silver Institute's own table adds a third line. After forecast net outflows of 45 million ounces from exchange traded products (ETPs), its market balance is a surplus of 10 million ounces.
| Measure | What counts as demand | 2026 result |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Institute (Metals Focus) | Industry, jewelry, silverware, bars and coins | 35 million ounce deficit |
| Silver Institute, after ETP flows | The same, plus ETP flows | 10 million ounce surplus |
| BMO | Metal consumed by manufacturers and jewelers | A growing surplus; size not public |
These silver demand forecasts use different definitions of the same market, and the data themselves do not conflict.
What have silver investors done in 2026?
Global silver ETP holdings stood at 1.25 billion ounces on November 3, the Silver Institute said. That was down 4%, or 55 million ounces, since the start of the year.
Holdings have recovered 24 million ounces since the end of June. For the full year, Metals Focus forecasts net outflows of 45 million ounces.
Bar and coin demand of 215 million ounces is down 2%, but still about 13% above 2024. US retail investment is expected to reach its lowest level since 2010, and Indian demand is forecast to fall 10%.
Can investment demand offset weaker solar demand for silver?
BMO's view is that investment demand stays a key pillar of the market, but will fall short of offsetting the loss of solar demand, Kitco reported.
BMO said that for silver "to continue marching higher while solar demand contracts," investors "will need to absorb an unprecedented quantity of surplus metal at an increasingly high dollar cost."
The other side starts with Newman, speaking to Bloomberg. "If we do start to see some clearer signals and investors then start to recommit, I think there's plenty of room for them to improve or build exposure."
J.P. Morgan's metals team wrote in a November 9 briefing that "investor positioning in gold and silver has turned light," exchangerates.org.uk reported. Light positioning can mean room to buy. It can also mean little support from investors already in.
On rates, J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer said on August 13: "Higher Fed rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver."
Late on November 12, Kitco put CME FedWatch odds at about 85% for a quarter point Fed hike on December 9.
So the answer depends on investor flows that nobody can know in advance, and CMR does not give advice.
What do other banks forecast for silver?
Each figure in this silver price outlook 2026 is the institution's own estimate. Bank of America's Michael Widmer, who leads metals research at BofA Global Research, expects a $55 average for the fourth quarter of 2026, Benzinga reported.
He sees $75 in the second and third quarters of 2027. Both are quarterly averages from the bank's October 30 note, which CMR's BofA post covers.
J.P. Morgan forecast $63.0 for the fourth quarter of 2026 (a quarterly average) on August 13. Its yearly average for 2026 is $70.6. For 2027, it is $63.9.
The World Bank expects yearly averages of $70 in 2026 and $62 in 2027. Its October 28 outlook puts 2028 at $58. CMR checked that silver price prediction on November 7.
A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders was published October 27. It put silver's yearly averages at $70.30 for 2026 and $66.75 for 2027.
A 2026 yearly average includes the very high prices of early 2026. So a $70 figure can sit far above today's price without implying a rise from here.
J.P. Morgan's figures predate the drop below $50, and the World Bank's data cutoff was October 14.
BofA's own balance shows a surplus of about 910 tonnes in 2026, about 29.3 million ounces by CMR's calculation. The bank expects a deficit in 2027, Benzinga reported, which is a third way to count.
How I read it. BMO and the Silver Institute agree on the fact that matters most here. Solar is using less silver, fast, and price is part of the reason. Where they part is on what to call a bar or a coin. Count it as demand, and the market is still short. Count it as metal parked above ground, and the market is long and getting longer, so investors have to keep taking it in. BMO's question is really about patience: whether buyers who sold ETP ounces this year come back, and stay, at higher prices. Nobody can know that in advance. For a sound money reader, silver as a store of value and silver as an industrial input are two different cases. This report is mostly about the second.
Who has a stake in these figures?
BMO Capital Markets sells research and is part of BMO Financial Group. The Silver Institute is an industry association that Bloomberg describes as producer funded, and Metals Focus, a consultancy, produces its figures. J.P. Morgan and BofA also sell research.
What to watch: which dates could test both ledgers?
- Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US producer price index (PPI) for October. It was not out at publish time.
- Monday, November 16, 2026: the delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders report, covering positions at the November 10 close.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting, with the rate decision on December 9.
- Thursday, December 31, 2026: the last day of the fourth quarter. It closes the window for BMO's $67.40, BofA's $55 and J.P. Morgan's $63.0 quarterly averages.
- April 2027: the Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2027, with final 2026 figures for PV and industrial demand. The date is not yet set.
FAQ: what do readers ask about BMO and silver?
What is BMO's outlook on the silver market?
In a report Kitco covered on November 11, 2026, BMO Capital Markets said it expects the gold/silver ratio to trade around 85 over the next four years. It expects the consumption surplus to reach a record by 2030, and Kitco reports the analysts called the loss of solar growth the biggest risk for silver. BMO's latest published forecasts date from September 28. They are $67.40 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $69.30 for the first quarter of 2027, both quarterly averages. Its long term average is about $47. The coverage CMR found of the November report gives no new BMO price forecast.
What is driving silver demand in 2026?
The Silver Institute's November 12, 2026 estimates, prepared by Metals Focus, put industrial demand at 640 million ounces, down 3%. Industrial demand outside solar (PV) rises 4.5% to 492 million ounces, while Bloomberg reports PV demand slumping 21%. Jewelry falls 22%, silverware 17% and bar and coin demand 2%. Total demand falls 5%, so the parts outside solar grew while solar shrank.
Can investment demand offset weaker solar demand for silver?
BMO's view, as reported by Kitco on November 11, 2026, is that the bull case "requires investment demand not just to remain strong, but to remain exceptionally strong for years." On the other side, Metals Focus's Philip Newman told Bloomberg there is "plenty of room" for investors to build exposure if they recommit. J.P. Morgan wrote on November 9 that positioning had turned light. The answer depends on investor flows nobody can know in advance, and CMR does not give advice.
Sources
- BMO says silver's solar boom is fading, investment demand unlikely to compensate (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, November 11, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-11/bmo-says-silvers-solar-boom-fading-investment-demand-unlikely-compensate
- Silver market set for deficit even as solar makers cut back (Bloomberg), Moneycontrol, November 12, 2026. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/silver-market-set-for-deficit-even-as-solar-makers-cut-back-14078648.html
- Live gold and silver prices, Kitco, 8:15 and 8:16 a.m. ET November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/price
- COMEX silver futures (SI=F) historical data, Yahoo Finance, December 31, 2025 to November 12, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SI=F/history/
- Gold and silver prices are struggling now, but a much higher long-term base is building (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, September 28, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-28/gold-and-silver-prices-are-struggling-now-much-higher-long-term-base
- BMO warns investors that the gold/silver ratio could be nearing a historic bottom, Kitco News, January 15, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-01-15/bmo-warns-investors-goldsilver-ratio-could-be-nearing-historic-bottom
- BMO says gold's bull rally not over, only paused during Iran war, Kitco News, March 24, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-03-24/bmo-says-golds-bull-rally-not-over-only-paused-during-iran-war
- Silver Market Set for Sixth Consecutive Annual Deficit in 2026, The Silver Institute (GlobeNewswire), November 12, 2026. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/13/3402349/0/en/silver-market-set-for-sixth-consecutive-annual-deficit-in-2026.html
- Silver Price Outlook: Positioning In Gold, Silver Turned Light Says JP Morgan (Dave Taylor), exchangerates.org.uk, November 12, 2026. https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47757/2026-11-12-silver-price-outlook-positioning-in-gold-silver-turned-light-says-jp-morgan.html
- The path for silver prices in 2026 and 2027, J.P. Morgan Global Research, August 13, 2026. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices
- Kitco PM Report: gold and silver slide as Treasury yields surge, Kitco News, November 12, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-12/gold-silver-slide-treasury-yields-surge-fed-hike-concerns-intensify-kitco
- Benzinga report on silver and BofA's October 30 note, Benzinga, November 2, 2026. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/26/11/62778727/silver-200-day-moving-average-2020-tavi-costa-bofa
- Commodity Markets Outlook, forecast tables, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
- Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central-bank demand lends support (Noel John, Reuters), Investing.com, October 27, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/strong-dollar-high-yields-drag-on-gold-outlook-but-centralbank-demand-lends-support-4975805
- Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
- Commitments of Traders, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
