Gold Near $3,900: Chart Warnings Meet Luke Gromen's Debt Crisis Case

By Ben McGregor

Monday, November 16, 2026

Two readings of the same gold selloff landed a day apart. The Market Ear, on November 12, focused on weak charts and fading buyers near $3,900. Luke Gromen, on BNN Bloomberg the next day, agreed the near term looks negative and tied the move to a longer US fiscal path.

The figures below are from Friday's close, November 13, unless a source uses another date. Kitco's Friday report put spot gold near $3,883.40 an ounce, up 0.18% on the day. That report was published at 5:46 p.m. ET on November 13, 2026. COMEX gold futures settled at $3,886.30, according to Yahoo Finance. The November 12 settlement of $3,885.30 was the lowest close of 2026 on that series.

Gromen founded Forest for the Trees, or FFTT, and spoke with the BNN Bloomberg host on Trading Day. BNN Bloomberg posted the segment on November 13, 2026, at 2:56 p.m. ET.

The Market Ear published "Gold Is Hanging By A Thread" on ZeroHedge on November 12, 2026, at 12:01 p.m. ET. CMR used the editor's copy of the full article.

What did The Market Ear say about gold charts, flows and positioning?

The Market Ear said gold was back testing a major trendline in place since March 2024. It said momentum is weak, with prices well below the 200-day moving average, the average price over 200 sessions, which has turned lower.

On COMEX gold futures, the 200-session average was about $4,472 on November 13, by CMR's calculation. That was down from about $4,541 twenty sessions earlier. The November 13 settlement of $3,886.30 was about 13% below that average, by CMR's calculation. The Market Ear's charts use LSEG Workspace spot data, so levels may differ slightly from these futures figures.

It said a close below the $3,900 area would leave little meaningful support until about $3,400, a technical reading of its own.

On the weekly chart, it said the 100-week moving average is near current prices, and the 200-week average sits near $3,000. On COMEX weekly closes, the 100-week average was about $3,915 as of November 13, by CMR's calculation. The 200-week average was about $3,047.

The Market Ear said the inverse link to the dollar is intact, and that the latest rise in the dollar index is weighing on gold. It sees no meaningful bounce while the dollar stays strong. The ICE US Dollar Index rose from 101.65 on Monday, November 9. It closed at 103.41 on Friday, November 13, 2026.

CMR looked at that dollar move in Three Down Days: The Gold Selloff, the Dollar and Fed Odds, published November 13, 2026.

The Market Ear said CFTC data show managed money gold longs, meaning fund positions, at relatively low levels versus the past two years, after large liquidation of speculative longs.

The latest CFTC report that breaks out managed money for COMEX gold covers Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Managed money was long 122,283 contracts and short 18,669, a net long of 103,614 contracts. Over the prior two years, the low for managed money longs was 118,936 contracts on February 3, 2026. The high was 240,485 contracts on February 4, 2025.

At the November 3 futures settlement of $3,940.40, the net position was worth about $41 billion, by CMR's calculation. That is in line with the JPMorgan chart, as relayed by The Market Ear.

A Goldman Sachs desk note, as relayed by The Market Ear, said Chinese speculative investors are now selling gold after earlier buying it against copper shorts. US rate hike worries play a part, the note said, but concern about Chinese demand looks like the bigger driver. Onshore feedback suggests little improvement before the second quarter of 2027 without stimulus. CMR could not see the Goldman note itself.

The Market Ear wrote on November 12: "The Chinese bid is fading, and the winter outlook is looking increasingly fragile."

Goldman also reports little urgency to buy, as relayed by The Market Ear. It said demand for gold exchange traded funds has pulled back, and that open interest, meaning outstanding contracts, is down about 6%. It said client re-engagement is limited, and that two attempts this year to rebuild options exposure failed as rates and oil moved against gold. The 6% figure has no stated time window, so CMR could not check it.

The Market Ear wrote on November 12: "Investors still want to own gold. They just don't want to own it today."

It also said gold volatility is rising as prices fall, which it called a reversal of the usual pattern, and that investors are paying up for downside protection. The Cboe Gold Volatility Index closed at 25.35 on November 13. That was up from 24.21 on November 11. Its 2026 high was 46.02 on January 29. Volatility has ticked up, and it remains far below that high.

Goldman's commodity desk, as relayed by The Market Ear, said its trend following model is close to maximum short exposure. Trend following funds follow the price direction. The desk said the trend may still favor sellers, but that positioning makes pressing the short dangerous. It said the pain trade, meaning the move that would hurt the most traders, is now likely higher. CMR could not verify that model reading.

What did Luke Gromen say about the gold selloff and the US fiscal path?

The BNN Bloomberg host said gold was mixed after a heavy selloff and on track for a weekly decline, as investors digested hotter inflation data and rate hike bets. CMR covered that inflation report in After October CPI, a Rebound: Gold Prices Today, November 11.

October CPI rose 0.4% on the month, according to the BLS release of November 10, as reported by CNBC. Kitco's Friday report ran under this headline: "Gold posts steep weekly loss as Treasury yields rise, Fed tightening bets persist." COMEX gold futures fell from $4,074.90 on November 6. They settled at $3,886.30 on November 13, a decline of about 4.6%, by CMR's calculation.

Gromen read the price action as a warning. He said "it's telling us a significant deflationary impulse is coming" (0:27), at a time when he sees the US fiscal picture as already strained. Another view that deflation may come first is in Marc Faber in Zurich: Gold, Treasuries and Debt Deflation, which carries a November 15, 2026 page date.

Gromen described true interest expense, his own measure of entitlements, interest and veterans affairs against receipts. He said the measure finished fiscal 2026 at 106% of receipts. He said the United States soon faces a choice between printing money to pay entitlements or defaulting on them.

When the measure has been above 100%, he said, gold falls, long-term rates rise and stocks fall, until there is Treasury market dysfunction or a dollar liquidity injection.

The official Monthly Treasury Statement for fiscal 2026, through September 30, shows receipts of $5.40 trillion. Net interest outlays were $1.05 trillion, and Social Security outlays were $1.67 trillion. Medicare outlays were $1.07 trillion, and health outlays, mostly Medicaid, were $1.03 trillion. Income security outlays were $0.69 trillion, and veterans benefits were $0.42 trillion.

Net interest, Social Security, Medicare, health and veterans together equal about 97% of receipts, by CMR's calculation. Adding income security gives about 110%. His 106% figure falls inside that range, depending on which programs he counts.

Before COVID, he said, the measure had never been above 100% in US history, a claim CMR did not check. In COVID, he said, the Fed bought $600 billion a month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and cut rates to zero. He said it let inflation run to 8% to 10% for more than a year. By his figures, which CMR did not check, that took the measure from 115% to 85% of receipts. He expects some version of that episode again.

On March 15, 2020, the Fed cut its target range. The new range was 0 to 0.25 percent. It said it would buy at least $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities over coming months. On March 23, 2020, it switched to buying in the amounts needed. On June 10, 2020, it said it would keep buying at least at the current pace. Its December 16, 2020 statement described that pace as at least $80 billion of Treasuries a month. The same statement also listed $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities a month.

His $600 billion a month figure fits only the first weeks of 2020. Purchases were far faster at first and then settled at about $120 billion a month. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in the 12 months to June 2022, according to BLS CPI-U data.

He said, "near-term it's negative for gold" (2:32).

He said, "there's nothing more positive for gold than positive real rates on a country in the US's fiscal position" (2:38). Positive real rates are interest rates after inflation, and he said those rates make the debt unsustainable faster. Unless the US defaults outright, he said, the way out is dollar liquidity, which he called very bullish for gold.

The BNN Bloomberg host raised the figure of $18,000 gold. Gromen said "it's not my base case" (3:14). He called $18,000 a tail scenario. His base case forecast is $8,000 to $10,000, and he gave no timeframe for either figure. Labeled bank forecasts appear in $4,150 or $4,650? Two Banks' Gold Price Forecast 2026, which carries a November 15, 2026 page date.

What does Luke Gromen say about US gold reserves and the yuan?

Historically, he said, the market value of US official gold has equaled 40% to 60% of foreign held Treasuries on average. He put US official gold reserves at 261 million ounces. He said the share was about 20% at the 1989 low. He said it reached 135% in the 1980 crisis. Today it is about 11%, he said, so gold would need to roughly double to get back to 1989 levels. It would need to rise four to six times to reach the long-term average. It would need to rise about 11 times in a 1979 to 1980 style dollar crisis, he said. CMR did not check those historical ratios.

Treasury's Status Report of US Government Gold Reserve showed 261.5 million fine troy ounces as of October 31, 2026. Treasury TIC data show foreign holdings of US Treasuries of $9.33 trillion at the end of August 2026. The COMEX gold futures settlement was $4,481.50 on Monday, August 31, 2026. US gold was worth about $1.17 trillion that day, or about 12.6% of foreign holdings, by CMR's calculation. Gold has fallen since, so his roughly 11% at today's price is plausible.

He thinks the ratio goes back to 40% to 60% at some point, though not soon. He said, "we can see it going back into the system as a neutral reserve asset" (4:41).

He said that shift would be faster the more the US uses dollar sanctions.

He also said he thinks part of Washington sees a rising gold price as a way to weaken the dollar, especially against the yuan.

He put gold at about 25,000 yuan an ounce. He said moving the yuan from 6.7 to 5 per dollar implies $5,000 gold. He said a move to 4 per dollar implies $10,000 gold. He said, "gold is the pivot point for the currency system restructuring that is underway" (6:04).

The dollar bought about 6.67 yuan on November 13, 2026. So his 6.7 figure is right. Friday's Kitco spot gold of $3,883.40 equals about 25,900 yuan an ounce, by CMR's calculation, close to his about 25,000 figure. At 25,000 yuan an ounce, $5,000 gold implies 5.0 yuan per dollar, as he says. At the same yuan price, $10,000 gold implies 2.5 yuan per dollar, by CMR's calculation. He gave 4.0. A rate of 4.0 yuan per dollar would correspond to about $6,250 gold, by CMR's calculation.

Asked about stocks, he said he sees equities higher in dollars but lower when priced in ounces of gold.

Where do the two readings overlap, and where do they part?

How I read it. Both sources expect near-term weakness in the gold price. The Market Ear's case rests on charts, positioning and Chinese flows that can turn quickly, and it notes the short side is already crowded. Gromen's case rests on fiscal arithmetic that CMR could partly check. The spending groups he names are a very large share of receipts, and US gold is a small share of foreign held Treasuries. What links the two readings is the dollar and real rates.

Who has a stake in these views?

Forest for the Trees sells macro research to clients. The Market Ear's full article sits behind ZeroHedge's paid Premium tier. The Market Ear relays sell-side bank research from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

What is on the calendar next?

• The Market Ear's gold levels. The $3,900 and $3,400 levels The Market Ear named are its own technical markers. It did not attach a date to those levels.
• The next CFTC report. The next Commitments of Traders report will show whether managed money keeps cutting gold longs. The latest available covers Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with no release date stated.
• Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The Federal Reserve announces its decision after the meeting that runs December 8 to 9. The Bank of Canada also issues an interest rate announcement that day, per its 2026 schedule.
• Thursday, December 10, 2026. The US consumer price index for November is due at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the BLS schedule.

FAQ: what are readers asking about the gold price, The Market Ear and Luke Gromen?

Why did The Market Ear call $3,900 an important level for gold?

The Market Ear said gold was testing a trendline in place since March 2024. It said a close below about $3,900 would leave little meaningful support until about $3,400. Those figures are The Market Ear's own technical reading.

What does Luke Gromen mean by "true interest expense"?

Gromen uses true interest expense as his own measure of entitlements, interest and veterans affairs against receipts. He said the measure finished fiscal 2026 at 106% of receipts. The official Monthly Treasury Statement puts those spending groups at roughly 97% to 110% of receipts, by CMR's calculation, depending on which programs are counted.

Is this article a recommendation to buy or sell gold?

No. CMR reports The Market Ear's and Gromen's views and checks the figures they cited. It makes no recommendation on gold or any other asset. Their chart levels and price forecasts are their opinions.

What sources did CMR use?

1. Gold Is Hanging By A Thread, The Market Ear via ZeroHedge, November 12, 2026. https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-hanging-thread
2. Gold 'could hit' US$18,000 in a debt crisis: Gromen, BNN Bloomberg, YouTube, November 13, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_yNeQsih4c
3. Gold 'could hit' US$18,000 in a debt crisis: Gromen, BNN Bloomberg, November 13, 2026, 2:56 p.m. ET. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/trading-day/2026/11/13/gold-could-hit-us18000-in-a-debt-crisis-gromen/
4. Gold posts steep weekly loss as Treasury yields rise, Fed tightening bets persist, Kitco, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/gold-posts-steep-weekly-loss-treasury-yields-rise-fed-tightening-bets
5. COMEX gold futures (GC=F), Yahoo Finance, November 13, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF
6. ICE US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), Yahoo Finance, November 13, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB
7. Three Down Days: The Gold Selloff, the Dollar and Fed Odds, Canadian Mining Report, November 13, 2026. https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/gold-selloff-pauses-after-three-down-sessions-as-dollar-and-fed-hike-bets-rise
8. Commitments of Traders, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, report covering November 3, 2026. https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
9. Cboe Gold Volatility Index (^GVZ), Yahoo Finance, November 13, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGVZ
10. After October CPI, a Rebound: Gold Prices Today, November 11, Canadian Mining Report, November 11, 2026. https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/gold-and-silver-prices-fall-after-hot-us-cpi-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-near-100-what-s-next
11. October consumer prices, CNBC, November 10, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html
12. Marc Faber in Zurich: Gold, Treasuries and Debt Deflation, Canadian Mining Report, November 15, 2026 page date. https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/marc-faber-in-zurich-debt-deflation-first-and-why-he-holds-gold-and-treasuries
13. Monthly Treasury Statement, US Treasury Fiscal Data, fiscal 2026 through September 30, 2026. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/
14. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 15, 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm
15. Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 23, 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323a.htm
16. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 10, 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200610a.htm
17. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 16, 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20201216a.htm
18. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CUUR0000SA0), US Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0
19. $4,150 or $4,650? Two Banks' Gold Price Forecast 2026, Canadian Mining Report, November 15, 2026 page date. https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/gold-price-outlook-two-major-banks-predict-different-scenarios-who-will-be-right
20. Status Report of U.S. Treasury Gold Reserve, US Treasury Fiscal Data, October 31, 2026. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/status-report-of-u-s-treasury-gold-reserve/status-report-of-u-s-treasury-gold-reserve
21. Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities, Table 5, US Treasury TIC, August 2026. https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html
22. USD/CNY (CNY=X), Yahoo Finance, November 13, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNY%3DX
23. Episode 489: Luke Gromen, Stansberry Investor Hour, November 3, 2026. https://stansberryresearch.com/stansberry-investor-hour/episode-489-luke-gromen-why-gold-could-hit-18000-as-the-u-s-dollar-faces-a-crisis
24. Bank of Canada publishes its 2026 schedule for policy interest rate announcements, Bank of Canada, August 2025. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/08/bank-canada-publishes-2026-schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/
25. Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 15, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
26. Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed November 15, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm