By Ben McGregor
Friday, November 13, 2026
The gold selloff paused on Friday morning, after COMEX gold futures as quoted by Yahoo Finance fell for three straight sessions, from November 10 to 12.
The November 12 settlement of $3,885.30 was the lowest of 2026. By CMR's calculation, that was 5.57% below the November 9 settlement.
Then the snapshot changed on Friday, when Kitco's live page showed spot gold at $3,887.90 bid at 9:28 a.m. ET. That was up $11.50, or 0.30%, from Kitco's prior close, and its page clock read 2:28 p.m., which is UTC.
So "extends losses" fits the week through Thursday and does not fit Friday morning. Kitco attributed Thursday's drop to Treasury yields, a firm dollar and Fed hike expectations. This piece tests each cause, then the evidence that runs the other way.
Why are gold prices falling in November 2026?
CMR's November 13 gold post covers the overnight bounce. Here are the settlements of COMEX gold futures as quoted by Yahoo Finance, with daily changes by CMR's calculation.
| Date | Settlement | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| November 9 | $4,114.50 | |
| November 10 | $4,030.20 | down 2.05% |
| November 11 | $4,000.50 | down 0.74% |
| November 12 | $3,885.30 | down 2.88% |
Over the three sessions, the fall was $229.20, or 5.57%, by CMR's calculation.
The month to date tells a smaller story when you start from the last October session. By CMR's calculation, the latest settlement was 0.35% below the October 30 settlement of $3,898.90.
So November to date is a small decline, and almost all of the drop came this week.
Over the year, the drop is much bigger. By CMR's calculation, the latest settlement was 10.50% below the final settlement of 2025, which was $4,341.10.
It was also 26.95% below the year's highest settlement, $5,318.40 on January 29. By the common market convention, a fall of more than 20% from a high is a bear market.
By that convention, the drop since January is more than a gold price correction.
Kitco's November 12 market report named the reasons for Thursday's slide, saying gold prices "were sharply lower in late U.S. trading Thursday." It said they were "pressured by rising Treasury yields, a firm U.S. dollar and expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases."
It added: "Gold extended its decline below $3,900.00 an ounce as investors reassessed the outlook for restrictive monetary policy." Spot gold was near $3,876.40, down $110.60 or 2.77%, Kitco said.
The October consumer price index, released November 10, rose 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%, Kitco reported. Core prices rose 0.3%, also above expectations, and CMR's November 11 post covered that release.
Goldman Sachs cut its gold forecasts on November 5, Reuters reported. It cited "implications of the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish policy stance in recent months."
Spot gold was up on Friday morning, so "falling" describes the week rather than today.
What did the dollar and Treasury yields do this week?
The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) tracks the US dollar against other major currencies. Its Yahoo Finance closes rose in each session shown below.
| Date | DXY close |
|---|---|
| November 4 | 101.51 |
| November 9 | 101.65 |
| November 10 | 102.23 |
| November 11 | 102.91 |
| November 12 | 103.17 |
By CMR's calculation, the November 12 close was up 1.64% from November 4. It was up 1.27% from the October 30 close, also by CMR's calculation.
It was also up 4.98% from the 2025 close of 98.28, by CMR's calculation. On Friday morning, Yahoo Finance showed the DXY at 103.20 at 8:54 a.m. ET, little changed.
Gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it dearer for buyers who use other currencies. Kitco named "a firm U.S. dollar" as one pressure on Thursday. Its report added that "the dollar remained firm as investors reassessed the prospect of additional Fed tightening."
Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper also named a stronger US dollar as a significant obstacle for gold in her November 10 report.
Treasury yields rose over the same days, according to the US Treasury's daily par yield curve closes.
| Date | 10-year yield | 2-year yield |
|---|---|---|
| September 16 | 5.01% | 4.74% |
| November 9 | 4.88% | 4.56% |
| November 10 | 4.98% | 4.73% |
| November 12 | 5.10% | 4.86% |
No November 11 row exists, because the cash bond market was closed for Veterans Day. September 16 was the day of the last Fed hike.
How did Fed pricing and inflation data line up with the gold selloff?
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% in a unanimous vote.
On October 28 it held the range in a 10 to 2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissenting in favor of another quarter point hike.
That sets up the Federal Reserve interest rate outlook. Late on November 12, futures pricing showed about an 85% chance of a quarter point increase on December 9, Kitco reported.
It showed a 15% chance of a half point move. These are market odds, and the Fed itself makes the decision at its December meeting.
Standard Chartered's own view, Kitco reported, is a quarter point hike in December followed by a hold through 2027.
Friday brought more inflation data when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October producer price index (PPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET.
PPI final demand prices rose 0.3% in October, seasonally adjusted. They rose 1.4% in September and 0.4% in August.
Unadjusted, final demand prices rose 6.5% over the 12 months to October, BLS said. It called that the largest such rise since November 2022, when the index rose 7.4%.
Final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% in October, the same as in September, and rose 4.9% over 12 months.
Final demand goods rose 0.5% in October, and services rose 0.2%.
After the release, at 9:28 a.m. ET, Kitco showed spot gold up 0.30% on the day, and CMR found no dated source on how markets read the data.
How will Fed rate hikes impact gold?
"Higher Fed rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver," J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer said on August 13.
That quote is about silver, but the same logic is usually applied to gold, which also pays no interest.
The World Gold Council (WGC) questions how reliable that rule is. Its June 4 commentary, "Hiking up a volcano," opens with the convention.
"Convention has it that higher policy rates pressure gold through higher real yields and a stronger US dollar. The evidence is mixed."
"Historically, rate hikes have not seen a uniform response from yields, the dollar or gold," it continued.
It added: "Gold has positively surprised on hikes more than 50% of the time." That finding covers 44 Fed hikes, per the WGC's footnote.
The sample starts on March 25, 1997. It ends on July 26, 2023, and its returns are adjusted for gold's average return over 21 day periods.
An older WGC table, published March 19, 2019, looked at whole tightening cycles using the spot gold price.
| Tightening cycle | Dates | Annualised spot gold return |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 to 2001 | June 30, 1999 to January 2, 2001 | 2.2% |
| 2004 to 2007 | June 30, 2004 to September 17, 2007 | 20.8% |
| 2015 to 2019 | December 16, 2015 to February 27, 2019 | 7.2% |
Past cycles are no forecast, and this year's selloff has come while markets priced hikes. So the table is evidence of a mixed record, and it proves no rule that gold rises when the Fed hikes.
This year offers one test, since the Fed raised rates on September 16 and held on October 28 with two dissents for a hike.
COMEX gold futures as quoted by Yahoo Finance fell 11.45% from the September 16 settlement to November 12, by CMR's calculation.
That period also brought a stronger dollar and higher yields. The DXY rose 2.85% over that span, by CMR's calculation. The 10-year yield rose to 5.10% from 5.01%. CMR cannot say the hike alone caused the fall.
What is driving the gold price decline?
Separate the drivers, and each has a dated number behind it.
- The dollar: the DXY closed at 103.17 on November 12, its highest close of 2026.
- Yields: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10% on November 12, its highest in this window.
- Fed pricing: futures showed about an 85% chance of a quarter point hike on December 9, Kitco reported.
- Inflation data: October CPI beat expectations on November 10, and the PPI rose 6.5% over 12 months.
- Forecast cuts: Goldman Sachs lowered its end 2026 and end 2027 figures on November 5.
The other side comes from two banks. In her November 10 report, Standard Chartered's Cooper said higher rates and a stronger dollar remain significant obstacles.
But she said improving investment flows and robust central bank demand are creating a solid price floor, Kitco reported. She saw $4,000 as an increasingly important floor and $4,200 as the next significant resistance level.
Global gold exchange traded products (ETPs) took in 211 tonnes in the third quarter, the strongest quarter since 2024, she noted, and another 19 tonnes in October.
Spot gold has since moved below $4,000, so her floor view was tested after the report.
Société Générale's analysts wrote in a November 12 note that the 13% drop in precious metals prices this year could bring more than $3 billion of buying, Kitco reported.
That buying would come as funds rebalance commodity indexes, including the Bloomberg Commodity Index, between January 8 and 14.
The bank estimates net inflows of about $3.3 billion into gold futures. That is a mechanical, one time flow estimate, and it carries no price forecast.
No source cited here says the decline is over or will continue, and CMR does not give advice.
What do banks and forecasters expect for gold?
Each figure in this gold price forecast 2026 roundup is the institution's own estimate. Goldman Sachs cut its end 2026 figure to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650.
It cut its end 2027 figure to $4,800 from $5,400, and both are year end figures. CMR's Goldman post covers the cut in more detail.
Standard Chartered forecasts a fourth quarter 2026 average of $4,650. For the first quarter of 2027 it forecasts $4,850, and both are quarterly averages.
On September 28, BMO Capital Markets forecast a fourth quarter 2026 average of about $4,650. That quarterly average was down from $4,750, and it predates the October and November drop.
BMO did not see gold at $5,000 before the second quarter of 2027. Its long term average forecast rose to about $4,000 from $3,100.
The World Bank's October 28 outlook gives a yearly average of $4,600 for 2026. For 2027, its yearly average is $4,250, and CMR checked those figures on November 7.
A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders put gold at $4,495 for 2026. It put 2027 at $4,650 in the poll published October 27, and both are yearly averages.
A fourth quarter average covers October to December, and a 2026 yearly average includes the high prices of early 2026. Either can sit above today's price without implying a rise from here.
How I read it. The headline names two causes, and both show up in the week's numbers. The dollar rose to its highest close of the year, and the market priced a December hike as likely. But "extends losses" is a snapshot, and on Friday morning the snapshot changed. The history is the harder part. The usual story says hikes are bad for gold, and the World Gold Council's own data say the record is mixed. A selloff driven by rate pricing can reverse if the pricing changes, or deepen if inflation keeps surprising. Next month's Fed meeting, and the inflation data before it, are where that gets tested. For a sound money reader, the reason to own gold and the reason it fell this week are different questions.
Who has a stake in these views?
Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Standard Chartered, Société Générale and BMO Capital Markets sell research. The World Gold Council is a market development body funded by gold mining companies.
What to watch: which dates could test the dollar and Fed story?
- Monday, November 16, 2026: the delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders report, covering positions at the November 10 close.
- Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: personal income and outlays for October. It includes the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting. The rate decision and projections come on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- Thursday, December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US consumer price index for November.
- Friday, January 8 to Thursday, January 14, 2027: the commodity index rebalancing window Société Générale named.
FAQ: what are readers asking about the gold selloff?
Why are gold prices falling in November 2026?
COMEX gold futures as quoted by Yahoo Finance fell for three straight sessions from November 10 to 12, 2026. The November 12 settlement of $3,885.30 was the lowest of 2026. Kitco attributed Thursday's drop to rising Treasury yields, a firm US dollar and expectations of more Federal Reserve rate increases. Hotter than expected October CPI data on November 10 and a Goldman Sachs forecast cut on November 5 came in the same stretch. Spot gold was up on Friday morning, so "falling" describes the week.
How will Fed rate hikes impact gold?
CMR makes no prediction, but J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer said higher Fed rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no interest. The World Gold Council's June 4, 2026 commentary says "The evidence is mixed." It found gold "positively surprised on hikes more than 50% of the time" across 44 Fed hikes since 1997. After the Fed's September 16 hike, COMEX gold futures as quoted by Yahoo Finance fell 11.45% to November 12, by CMR's calculation. The dollar and Treasury yields also rose over that period.
What is driving the gold price decline?
Sources point to the dollar, Treasury yields, Fed hike pricing, inflation data and forecast cuts. The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 103.17 on November 12, its highest close of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10% that day. On the other side, Standard Chartered cites central bank and ETF buying. Société Générale estimates about $3.3 billion of index buying in gold futures from January 8 to 14. No source cited here says the decline is over or will continue, and CMR does not give advice.
Sources
- Live gold prices, Kitco, 9:28 a.m. ET November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/price
- COMEX gold futures (GC=F) historical data, Yahoo Finance, December 31, 2025 to November 13, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F/history/
- Kitco's November 12 market report: gold and silver slide as Treasury yields surge, Kitco News, November 12, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-12/gold-silver-slide-treasury-yields-surge-fed-hike-concerns-intensify-kitco
- Gold prices find solid support at $4,000 as Standard Chartered sees rally to $4,650 by year-end (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, November 11, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-11/gold-prices-find-solid-support-4000-standard-chartered-sees-rally-4650-year
- Goldman Sachs trims gold forecasts as Fed stays hawkish (Reuters), Mining Weekly, November 6, 2026. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/goldman-sachs-trims-gold-forecasts-as-fed-stays-hawkish-2026-11-06
- ICE US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) historical data, Yahoo Finance, December 31, 2025 to November 13, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/history/
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, US Department of the Treasury, September 16 to November 12, 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 16, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 28, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
- Producer Price Indexes, October 2026 (USDL 26-1687), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 13, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
- The path for silver prices in 2026 and 2027, J.P. Morgan Global Research, August 13, 2026. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices
- Gold Market Commentary: Hiking up a volcano (Johan Palmberg), World Gold Council, June 4, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-may-2026
- The impact of monetary policy on gold, World Gold Council, March 19, 2019. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/the-impact-of-monetary-policy-on-gold
- Gold could see $3.3 billion in buying on index rebalancing after 13% decline, Société Générale (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, November 12, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-12/gold-could-see-33-billion-buying-index-rebalancing-after-13-decline-societe
- Gold and silver prices are struggling now, but a much higher long-term base is building (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, September 28, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-28/gold-and-silver-prices-are-struggling-now-much-higher-long-term-base
- Commodity Markets Outlook, forecast tables, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
- Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central-bank demand lends support (Noel John, Reuters), Investing.com, October 27, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/strong-dollar-high-yields-drag-on-gold-outlook-but-centralbank-demand-lends-support-4975805
- Commitments of Traders, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
- Release schedule, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed November 13, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
