Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Saturday, November 14, 2026
The Silver Institute still forecasts a silver supply deficit for 2026, and spot silver fell on Friday. Its release, prepared by Metals Focus and dated November 12, puts the full year deficit at 35 million ounces.
The same week, the Treasury 10 year real yield closed at 2.91% on Friday, November 13, the highest close of the week. Christopher Lewis, writing for FXEmpire on Friday, said rising real yields and a shrinking supply deficit weaken the bullish case. Kitco's Friday market report tied the session's drop to concerns about industrial demand and restrictive financial conditions. CMR does not say what silver does next.
What was the silver price decline this week?
Markets were closed on Saturday, November 14, so these prices are Friday's close. Kitco's Friday market report put spot silver near $48.630 an ounce, the latest figure for silver prices today. That was down $1.320 or 2.63% on the session. CMR's November 13 silver post covered earlier sessions in the week.
CMR did not find a Kitco spot weekly change for silver, so the weekly figure uses a separate series. COMEX silver futures, as quoted by Yahoo Finance under the symbol SI=F, settled at $51.803 on Friday, November 6. The same futures series settled at $48.650 on Friday, November 13, its lowest settlement of 2026. By CMR's calculation, that is a 6.09% decline on the week for the futures series.
The Silver Institute said the silver price hit a record $121.65 on January 26. It said the price had retreated to $52 by November 4, down 27% since the start of the year. That describes the year to November 4, before this week. By CMR's calculation from Kitco's Friday report, spot gold at $3,883.40 divided by spot silver at $48.630 gives a ratio of about 79.9. Gary and Joseph Wagner, in a Kitco opinion column published November 13, said silver's steeper decline pushed the ratio to roughly 80 from about 74 in mid-October.
CPM Group, quoted by Kitco on November 13, gave one reading of the precious metals market outlook this week. It wrote that the decline in gold "only appears to have overflowed onto silver prices, with platinum and palladium prices being relatively less affected." CMR's November 13 gold post covered the gold move.
What does the 2026 silver supply deficit forecast include?
The Silver Institute's silver market outlook, released Thursday, November 12, is a set of 2026 full year forecasts prepared by Metals Focus. The market is forecast to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with demand exceeding supply by 35 million ounces. That 35 million ounce figure is a forecast for the full year. A completed annual total would come later, in the World Silver Survey.
Total demand is forecast at 1.08 billion ounces, down 5% from 2025. Industrial demand is forecast at 640 million ounces, down 3%. Outside photovoltaics, industrial demand is forecast to rise 4.5% to 492 million ounces. Mine supply is forecast at 834 million ounces, down 0.5%. Recycling is forecast at 210 million ounces, up 6%. The cumulative shortfall for 2021 to 2026 is about 746 million ounces. FXEmpire, reading that report, put the 2025 shortfall at 54 million ounces.
The same release describes silver market trends in investment. Global silver exchange traded product holdings stood at 1.25 billion ounces on November 3, down 55 million ounces since the start of the year. Holdings were up 24 million ounces since the end of June. The release says higher bond yields "have constrained the recovery." Metals Focus forecasts net outflows of 45 million ounces for the full year. Bar and coin demand, another measure of silver investment demand, is forecast at 215 million ounces, down 2%.
Exchange traded product flows sit outside the 35 million ounce balance. CMR does not compute a combined figure from those two sets of ounces. The release says prices retreated to $52 by November 4. It said this was "as shifting US interest rate expectations, dollar strength and rising bond yields weighed on investor sentiment for the entire precious metals complex." That line describes the year to November 4, before this week.
Why are silver prices falling despite supply deficits?
The deficit and this week's drop sit in different windows. The Silver Institute's 35 million ounce figure is a 2026 full year forecast, and it excludes exchange traded product flows. Word for word, the release says: "The narrower shortfall and metal released through ETP selling have helped ease physical market tightness."
Kitco's Friday market report was about the session. It said gold stabilized after Thursday's steep losses, supported by bargain hunting, "while silver remained under pressure amid concerns about industrial demand and restrictive financial conditions."
Lewis published on Friday at 12:10 p.m. ET, before Friday's close. He wrote: "Silver remains vulnerable to further selling as rising real yields and a shrinking supply deficit weaken the bullish case."
The World Bank, reported by Kitco on November 5, was describing the third quarter. It said silver prices fell 14% in the third quarter "as physical market tightness eased and higher interest rates weighed on investment demand." It named tighter monetary policy, particularly in the United States, as the biggest downside risk. Higher than expected rates and a stronger dollar "could further reduce investor appetite for non-yielding assets," the bank said.
How do rising real yields affect silver prices?
A real yield is the inflation adjusted return on a Treasury. Put another way, it is what a Treasury pays once inflation is stripped out. Silver pays no interest, and the sources below link higher yields to weaker investment demand for metals. CMR does not say real yields always move silver, and it does not claim a size for the effect.
Treasury Daily Real Yield Curve Rates put the 10 year real yield at 2.63% on Friday, November 6, the week before. It closed at 2.86% on Thursday, November 12. It closed at 2.91% on Friday, November 13, the latest available print. By CMR's calculation, the 10 year real yield rose 0.28 percentage points on the week. The nominal 10 year par yield was 4.86% on November 6. It was 5.15% on November 13. No November 11 row exists, because the bond market was closed for Veterans Day.
Lewis cited the Treasury 10 year real yield at 2.63% on November 6. He tracked it to 2.86% on November 12, the data then in hand. He wrote: "Higher real yields can weigh on investment demand even while the projected physical deficit offers longer-term support."
Kitco's Friday market report said the benchmark 10 year Treasury yield rose toward 5.15% Friday, "increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion."
The Silver Institute, describing the year to November 4, also pointed to rising bond yields among the forces that weighed on investor sentiment. J.P. Morgan Global Research made the point in an August 13 note. It wrote that silver's path "could be determined by the direction of interest rates, with a hike likely dampening the appeal of precious metals." That note predates this week's moves.
Will silver prices recover in 2026?
CMR does not know and does not say. Bank forecasts for precious metals were already on the record before this week's low. CMR's two bank gold forecast post covers the gold side of that record.
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, dated October 28, puts a 2026 yearly average of $70 an ounce. The 2027 yearly average is $62. A further yearly average, for 2028, is $58. Those figures were reported by Kitco on November 5.
J.P. Morgan's silver price prediction, dated August 13, puts silver at $63 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, a quarterly average. The 2026 yearly average is $70.6. The 2027 yearly average is $63.9. Bank of America's commodity table is dated November 5, and ExchangeRates.org.uk reported it on November 7. It has $75 in both the second and third quarters of 2027, quarterly averages. It also has a 2027 yearly average of $70. CMR's BofA post covers those figures.
A 2026 yearly average includes the high prices of early 2026. The Silver Institute dated the $121.65 record to January 26. That kind of average says little about the next few weeks. The dated events below are the next public checks.
How I read it. The headline sets two forces against each other, and only one named source this week weighs them against each other. Lewis wrote that higher real yields can weigh on investment demand while the projected deficit offers longer-term support. The Silver Institute says its smaller deficit and fund selling have eased physical tightness. A deficit is a full year forecast of ounces, and a real yield is a rate the market sets every trading day. They are different kinds of measure, and they sit on different clocks. For a sound money reader, the deficit is a slow fact about supply and demand, and it does not by itself settle what the price does in any given week. The dated events below are where those assumptions can be checked.
Who has a stake in these figures?
The Silver Institute is funded by silver producers, and its figures are prepared by Metals Focus. J.P. Morgan and Bank of America sell research. FXEmpire publishes trading analysis. Gary and Joseph Wagner, the Kitco opinion authors quoted above, are with The Gold Forecast, a paid market service.
What is on the calendar next?
The next public checks sit on dates already named by these sources. The Federal Reserve decision on December 9 is on that list. Other prints in the same stretch include retail sales, industrial production, and the minutes of the October meeting.
- Monday, November 16, 2026. The delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders report is due, according to FXEmpire. Kitco's weekly survey story also flagged comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a conference in San Francisco.
- Tuesday, November 17, 2026. October retail sales are due, according to Kitco's Friday market report, and the Fed's industrial production report is due, according to FXEmpire.
- Wednesday, November 18, 2026. Minutes of the Fed's October 27 and 28 meeting are due, according to Kitco's Friday market report.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026. This is the Federal Reserve meeting, with the decision on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- Thursday, December 31, 2026. This is the end of the year the World Bank and J.P. Morgan 2026 yearly averages cover.
The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey, due in spring 2027, will carry final 2026 figures and show whether the 35 million ounce forecast held. A publication date has not been announced.
FAQ: what are readers asking about silver, yields and the deficit?
Will silver prices recover in 2026?
CMR does not know and does not say. The World Bank's silver price forecast 2026 is a $70 yearly average from October, and J.P. Morgan's is a $70.6 yearly average from August. A 2026 yearly average includes the high prices of early 2026, so it says little about the next few weeks. Dated events still ahead include the Federal Reserve decision on December 9.
How do rising real yields affect silver prices?
A real yield is the inflation adjusted return on a Treasury, and sources say it matters because silver pays no interest. The Treasury 10 year real yield closed at 2.91% on Friday, November 13, the latest available print. Christopher Lewis, writing for FXEmpire on Friday, said higher real yields can weigh on investment demand even while the projected deficit offers longer-term support. CMR does not say real yields always move silver, and it does not claim a size for the effect.
Why are silver prices falling despite supply deficits?
The Silver Institute's 35 million ounce silver supply deficit is a 2026 full year forecast, and it excludes exchange traded product flows. The same release says the narrower shortfall and metal released through ETP selling have helped ease physical market tightness. Kitco's Friday market report tied the session's drop to concerns about industrial demand and restrictive financial conditions. Lewis, writing before Friday's close, said rising real yields and a shrinking supply deficit weaken the bullish case.
What sources did CMR use?
- Gold posts steep weekly loss as Treasury yields rise and Fed tightening bets firm (Kitco NewsWire), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/gold-posts-steep-weekly-loss-treasury-yields-rise-fed-tightening-bets
- COMEX silver futures (SI=F), daily data, Yahoo Finance, accessed November 14, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SI%3DF/
- This week's sell-off in gold has brought November into the red (Gary and Joseph Wagner), Kitco opinion, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2026-11-13/weeks-sell-gold-brought-november-red
- Wall Street bears abound after inflation sours Fed outlook, Main Street sentiment turns mixed (Ernest Hoffman), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/wall-street-bears-abound-after-inflation-sours-fed-outlook-main-street
- Silver Market Set for Sixth Consecutive Annual Deficit in 2026, The Silver Institute, November 12, 2026. https://silverinstitute.org/silver-market-set-for-sixth-consecutive-annual-deficit-in-2026/
- Silver's 35 Million Ounce Deficit Faces a Higher-Yield Headwind (Christopher Lewis), FXEmpire, November 13, 2026. https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/silvers-35-million-ounce-deficit-faces-a-higher-yield-headwind-1644553
- Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates, US Treasury, 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, US Treasury, 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
- World Bank sees gold holding above $4,000 through 2028, warns silver faces bigger risks, Kitco News, November 5, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-05/world-bank-sees-gold-holding-above-4000-through-2028-warns-silver-faces
- The path for silver prices in 2026 and 2027, J.P. Morgan Global Research, August 13, 2026. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices
- Silver price prediction: BofA forecasts $75 on data centre risks, ExchangeRates.org.uk, November 7, 2026, reporting a Bank of America commodity table dated November 5, 2026. https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47701/2026-11-07-silver-price-prediction-bofa-forecasts-75-on-data-centre-risks.html
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 14, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
