Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Two banks issued a gold price forecast 2026 figure five days apart this month, and they use different labels. Goldman Sachs, in a note dated November 5, put gold at $4,150 an ounce at the end of 2026, an end of period figure. Standard Chartered, in a report published November 10, kept a $4,650 average for the fourth quarter of 2026.
CMR does not pick a winner. Each bank's stated reasons have been reported publicly, and dated events will test them.
Will gold prices rise or fall in 2026?
CMR does not know and does not say. Markets were closed on Saturday, November 14, so these prices are Friday's close. Kitco's Friday market report had spot gold near $3,883.40, up $7.00 or 0.18% on the day. Kitco's weekly survey story said spot gold set a weekly high of $4,148.95 on Monday, November 9. It broke below $4,000 on Wednesday, November 11. The weekly low was $3,852.10 on Thursday morning, November 12. CMR's November 13 selloff post covered that midweek slide.
Goldman Sachs, in its November 5 note, has an end of 2026 figure of $4,150 an ounce, an end of period estimate. Standard Chartered, in its November 10 report, has a fourth quarter 2026 average of $4,650. Both figures sit above Friday's close, by CMR's reading of the numbers. Forecasts can change, and Goldman cut its own end 2026 figure on November 5, Kitco reported.
What is in each bank's gold price forecast 2026?
Each gold price prediction below is the named bank's estimate, with its date and label. The labels matter for reading the banks' gold price expectations, because an end of period figure and a quarterly average answer different questions.
Goldman Sachs Research strategists led by Lina Thomas, in a note dated Thursday, November 5, lowered their end 2026 forecast by $500 an ounce, Kitco reported. The new end of period figure is $4,150, down from $4,650. The end 2027 figure went to $4,800 from $5,400, also an end of period estimate. InvestingLive and Investing.com reports of the same note give the November 5 date. CMR's own post on the cut ran on November 11.
Goldman's base case assumes the Fed's recent hawkish shift, and another rate hike in December, will restrain investors' debasement concerns. The strategists expect call option demand for gold as a hedge against macro policy risks "to fall back toward its historical average."
They said the setup resembles 2022, when central banks provided a strong structural bid but higher rates weighed on investor positioning. They said "structurally strong central bank demand" drives most of the price upside they forecast by the end of 2027. Goldman expects central bank purchases to average 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027. That compares with a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. The bank expects support once the Fed starts cutting in the second half of 2027.
Suki Cooper is Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered. In a report published Tuesday, November 10, she reiterated her forecast for gold to average $4,650 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. The same report put a first quarter 2027 average at $4,850. Both are quarterly averages, and Kitco reported the figures on November 11. When that report came out, Kitco said spot gold last traded at $4,031.80.
Cooper's November 10 report pointed to gold holding above $4,000 after stronger than expected jobs data. Kitco data show spot gold broke below $4,000 on Wednesday, November 11. The weekly low was $3,852.10 on Thursday, November 12. The report predates these moves.
A later, translated report also mentions a Goldman 2027 figure. Cailian Press, via Elebank on November 13, reported a Goldman 2027 commodities outlook released November 12. It said the end 2027 figure was cut to $4,650 from $4,800. The stated reason was that its economists now also expect a hike in March 2027. CMR could not confirm the $4,650 figure in an English primary source. The end 2026 figure of $4,150 was not reported as changed.
Why do banks have different gold price forecasts?
A gold market analysis of the two notes starts with the labels. Goldman's $4,150 is a price at the end of 2026. Standard Chartered's $4,650 is an average over October to December 2026. An average and an end of period price can differ even if both banks agreed on the path, because the two figures measure different things.
Their stated Federal Reserve paths also differ. Goldman assumes a December hike, then cuts from the second half of 2027. It also names a March 2027 hike as a risk to its own 2027 view. Standard Chartered expects a 25 basis point hike in December and then no change through 2027. Both banks expect a hike at the December meeting, with the decision due on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET. After that, the later Fed meetings are where a reader can check the paths each bank has printed.
The emphasis in each gold market outlook is different too. Goldman says investor hedging demand will drift back toward its historical average while central bank demand stays strong. Standard Chartered's gold investment outlook points to improving investment flows and robust central bank demand. CMR's November 14 central bank post looked at official buying in more detail.
Cooper said higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar "remain significant obstacles for gold," while improving investment flows and robust central bank demand are creating a solid price floor. She said gold's ability to hold above $4,000 after stronger than expected jobs data suggests the market is becoming more resilient. Global gold backed exchange traded products took in 211 tonnes in the third quarter, their strongest quarter since 2024, she said, and they took in another 19 tonnes in October. The bank expects central bank demand to exceed its full year forecast. Cooper also said the midterm election results helped gold show signs of returning to its role as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty.
What are Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered forecasting for gold?
The list below gives each bank's gold price targets 2026 and 2027 figures as the bank labeled them. Every gold price outlook 2026 figure here is the named bank's estimate, with its date and source.
- $4,150, Goldman Sachs. End of 2026, end of period, note dated November 5, 2026. Source: Kitco, November 13, 2026.
- $4,800, Goldman Sachs. End of 2027, end of period, same November 5 note. Source: Kitco, November 13, 2026.
- $4,650, Standard Chartered. Fourth quarter 2026 average, report published November 10, 2026. Source: Kitco, November 11, 2026.
- $4,850, Standard Chartered. First quarter 2027 average, same November 10 report. Source: Kitco, November 11, 2026.
- $4,650, Goldman Sachs, unconfirmed. End of 2027, from a translated account of a November 12 outlook. CMR could not confirm it in an English primary source. Source: Cailian Press via Elebank, November 13, 2026.
Goldman also stated a bear case and an upside case around its November 5 base. If the Fed hikes again in March 2027, delays cuts or raises its terminal rate, the strategists said gold could reach only $4,660 by the end of 2027. On the other side, they said renewed concerns about fiscal sustainability could lift the price above the $4,800 base case by the end of 2027. Standard Chartered's first quarter 2027 average of $4,850 covers January to March 2027.
Those 2027 figures still sit in different categories: one set is end of period, and one set is a quarterly average. The Cailian line, if later confirmed in an English primary source, would apply to Goldman's end 2027 figure. It would leave Standard Chartered's quarterly average as it stands.
How I read it. The headline asks who will be right. The honest answer is that the scorecard is not in yet, and the two numbers measure different things. What can be compared is what each bank says it is assuming. Goldman spells out a December hike and later cuts, and names the March 2027 meeting as a risk to its own view. Standard Chartered spells out a December hike and then a long hold, and leans on fund flows and central bank demand. Those are checkable statements, and the dated events below are where readers can check them. For a sound money reader, a bank forecast is one input, with its assumptions printed on it. CMR does not pick a winner.
Who has a stake in these views?
Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered sell research to clients. The gold figures in this article come from that research, as reported by Kitco and other outlets.
What to watch as these two views meet the calendar?
The next public checks sit on the calendar already named in these notes. December 9 is the first shared test, because both banks expect a hike at that meeting.
- Monday, November 16, 2026. Kitco's weekly survey story flagged comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a conference in San Francisco.
- Wednesday, November 18, 2026. Minutes of the Fed's October meeting are due, according to Kitco's Friday market report.
- Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026. This is the Federal Reserve meeting, with the decision on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Both banks expect a hike at this meeting.
- Thursday, December 31, 2026. This is the end of the period for Goldman's end 2026 figure, and the last day of Standard Chartered's fourth quarter averaging window.
- Tuesday, January 26 and Wednesday, January 27, 2027, tentative until confirmed. This is the first Fed meeting of 2027 on the Fed calendar. Standard Chartered expects no change through 2027. Goldman's stated bear case risk sits later, at the March 16 and 17 meeting, also tentative on that calendar.
FAQ: what are readers asking about these two bank forecasts?
Will gold prices rise or fall in 2026?
CMR does not know and does not say, and forecasts can change. Kitco's Friday market report had spot gold near $3,883.40 at Friday's close, and both banks' figures sit above that close, by CMR's reading of the numbers. Goldman Sachs, in a November 5 note, has an end of 2026 figure of $4,150 an ounce, an end of period estimate, after cutting its own prior figure. Standard Chartered, in a November 10 report, has a fourth quarter 2026 average of $4,650.
Why do banks have different gold price forecasts?
The two 2026 figures use different labels and horizons: Goldman's $4,150 is an end of period price, and Standard Chartered's $4,650 is a fourth quarter average. Goldman's base case assumes a December hike and cuts from the second half of 2027. Standard Chartered expects a 25 basis point hike in December and then no change through 2027. Goldman says investor hedging demand will drift back toward normal while central banks stay strong, and Standard Chartered points to improving investment flows and central bank demand.
What are Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered forecasting for gold?
Goldman Sachs, in a note dated November 5, put gold at $4,150 at the end of 2026, an end of period figure. Its end 2027 figure is $4,800, also an end of period estimate, Kitco reported. Standard Chartered, in a report published November 10, forecast a fourth quarter 2026 average of $4,650. Its first quarter 2027 average is $4,850, Kitco reported.
What sources did CMR use?
- Gold posts steep weekly loss as Treasury yields rise and Fed tightening bets firm (Kitco NewsWire), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/gold-posts-steep-weekly-loss-treasury-yields-rise-fed-tightening-bets
- Wall Street bears abound after inflation sours Fed outlook, Main Street sentiment turns mixed (Ernest Hoffman), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/wall-street-bears-abound-after-inflation-sours-fed-outlook-main-street
- Goldman Sachs cuts year-end gold price target to $4,150/oz, 2027 target to $4,800/oz (Ernest Hoffman), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/goldman-sachs-cuts-year-end-gold-price-target-4150oz-2027-target-4800oz
- ICYMI: Goldman cuts gold forecasts to $4,150 for 2026, $4,800 for 2027 as hawkish Fed bites, InvestingLive, reporting a note dated November 5, 2026. https://investinglive.com/commodities/icymi-goldman-cuts-gold-forecasts-to-4-150-for-2026-4-800-for-2027-as-hawkish-fed-bites/
- Goldman lowers year-end gold price forecast on hawkish Fed shift, Investing.com, November 2026. https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-lowers-yearend-gold-price-forecast-on-hawkish-fed-shift-4937601
- Gold prices find solid support at $4,000 as Standard Chartered sees rally to $4,650 by year-end (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, November 11, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-11/gold-prices-find-solid-support-4000-standard-chartered-sees-rally-4650-year
- Goldman Sachs outlook for commodities in 2027 (Cailian Press), Elebank, November 13, 2026. https://news.platform.elebank.com/en/post/1004460438/goldman-sachs-outlook-for-commodities-in-2027-energy-prices-may
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 14, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
