Gold Prices Bounce After Steep Decline as Fed Rate Hike Fears Persist: Is It a Recovery?

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Friday, November 13, 2026

Gold prices today show a bounce after a steep decline, and the bounce is partial. Spot gold was $3,906.70 bid at 9:19 p.m. ET on November 12, up 0.78% on the day, Kitco's live prices showed. By CMR's calculation, that gold price rebound won back about 27% of the November 12 spot drop and about 12% of the three-session spot drop.

Kitco measures that change from its 5:00 p.m. ET close, and the gain came in thin overnight trade during Asian hours. No published report had explained the evening move by then.

This article tests what a gold price recovery would have to undo, first session by session and then reading by reading.

What happened to gold over the three sessions?

Most figures below come from COMEX front-month gold, the November futures contract, which settles once a day. Others come from spot gold, which Kitco quotes almost around the clock. COMEX December gold, the most-traded contract, is a third series. It settled at $3,885.30 on November 12, down 2.88%, The Edge reported. That is why "gold futures" prices differ between reports.

Tuesday, November 10: a hot CPI report

The October consumer price index (CPI) report on November 10 showed hotter US inflation, Kitco reported. Before the report, CME FedWatch put the odds of a December rate hike at 84%. Shortly after it, the odds were 98.8%, IBTimes reported.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.98%, up from 4.88% on November 9, US Treasury data show. COMEX front-month gold settled at $4,020.70, down $84.30 or 2.05%, Dow Jones Market Data showed. Late that day, Kitco put spot gold near $4,031.80, down 2.60%.

Wednesday, November 11: a bounce that faded

Early on November 11, spot gold bounced. It was $4,049.90 bid at 5:50 a.m. ET, up 0.45%, as CMR reported in its November 11 post on gold after the CPI report. That bounce faded within the session. By late afternoon, Kitco put spot gold near $3,983.20, down 1.21%.

COMEX front-month gold settled at $3,992.00, down $28.70 or 0.71%. Dow Jones put the move at "down $113.00 or 2.75% over the last two sessions." Kitco said the US Dollar Index rose about 0.7% toward 102.90, near its highest since April 2025.

The cash Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, though Treasury futures traded.

Thursday, November 12: yields jump and oil rises

November 12 was the first full cash-bond session since CPI day. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10%, and the 2-year closed at 4.86%, US Treasury data show. By CMR's calculation from the same table, the 10-year close was its highest since October 21. A CNBC headline said the 10-year yield "jumps back above 5% as oil gains and more Fed rate hikes expected."

Oil rose after President Trump said on social media, "We don't need a deal with Iran," CNBC reported. WTI rose about 2.6% to $88.74 a barrel, Kitco and CNBC reported. Brent rose about 3.3% to $95.82. That reverses part of the oil drop CMR covered in its November 11 look at falling oil and the gold and silver outlook.

Oil rose even though US crude stocks climbed 4.657 million barrels in the week ended November 6, against an expected draw of 1.109 million, investingLive reported. Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange told CNBC: "If crude oil prices spike higher on this news, that's negative for gold from an inflation perspective."

COMEX front-month gold settled at $3,878.40, down 2.85%, according to the Dow Jones Data Talk headline carried by GoldSeek. That is below the October 30 settlement low of $3,885.70. So it is the lowest front-month settlement of 2026, by CMR's calculation. Late in the day, Kitco put spot gold near $3,876.40, down $110.60 or 2.77%.

CNBC, carrying Reuters copy, said spot gold touched its lowest level since October 2025 during the session. Wyckoff said hawkish Fed remarks and a US dollar index rally to a near 19-month high "are working to press the gold market lower," CNBC reported.

Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 200,000 in the week ended November 7, against a median estimate of 194,000, the Labor Department reported. Kitco called that consistent with "relatively limited layoffs." October existing-home sales fell 5.5% to the weakest annual rate since August 2010, with mortgage rates above 7%, Kitco reported.

How steep was the gold price decline?

By CMR's calculation, COMEX front-month gold fell $226.60, or 5.5%, from the November 9 settlement of $4,105.00. The November 12 drop of $113.60 was bigger than the November 10 drop of $84.30. The November 12 settlement is 27.1% below the record settlement of $5,318.40, set on January 29, 2026, by CMR's calculation. It is also down about 10.3% year to date, by the same calculation.

On Kitco's late-session readings, spot gold fell from about $4,139.40 late on November 9 to $3,876.40 late on November 12. That is a drop of $263.00, or 6.4%, by CMR's calculation.

Where do gold prices today stand against the November 9 close?

This is the first test a gold price recovery would face. At 9:19 p.m. ET on November 12, spot gold was $3,906.70. Late on November 9, before the CPI report, it was about $4,139.40. By CMR's calculation, that left spot gold about $233 below its November 9 level. It was also about $125 below its late November 10 level of $4,031.80, the level right after the CPI-day drop. So the bounce had not undone November 11 and 12, let alone November 10.

COMEX front-month gold had no new settlement by publish time, so its gap to the November 9 settlement stood at $226.60.

What would a recovery have to undo in yields, Fed odds and oil?

The reports cited here tied yields, Fed odds and oil to the gold price decline. Four readings show where each stood.

• The 10-year Treasury yield. It closed at 5.10% on November 12, against 4.88% on November 9. That is 22 basis points higher, by CMR's calculation. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
• The 10-year real yield. A real yield is the yield after expected inflation, which is what a metal that pays no interest competes with. It was 2.86% on November 12, against 2.66% on November 9, Treasury data show.
• Half-point hike odds. Late on November 10, CME FedWatch odds cited by Kitco put 11.8% on a half-point December hike. By late November 12, that share was about 15%. The quarter-point share fell from 88.2% to about 85% only because half-point bets rose.
• Brent crude. It rose about 3.3% to $95.82 a barrel on November 12, Kitco and CNBC reported.

By publish time, only spot gold had turned, and only partly. None of the other readings had a newer value in this article's sources than the November 12 close.

Has the market priced in the December hike?

Yes, a hike of some size looks fully priced, on the CME FedWatch readings cited by Kitco. The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, Reuters reported. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September and held in October. Its next decision is due December 9, after a December 8 to 9 meeting.

Some market watchers read a fully priced hike as bad news that is known. The other side is that Fed officials kept talking about more tightening on November 12.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is a voter this year, Reuters reported. She said "we need to move to a restrictive stance of policy to help bring inflation back down to that 2% objective." She favoured "more frequent, smaller rises."

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said "further tightening will be needed" and "inflation pressure is up, not down," FXStreet reported. Earlier in the week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller "seemed to favor a half-percentage-point hike," Reuters reported. CNBC said Goldman Sachs added another quarter-point hike in March to its forecast on November 11. Those remarks are the basis for saying hike fears persist, and Friday's producer price index is the next test.

How I read it. A December hike is priced, so the open question is how big it will be and what comes after it. A recovery case would need some of the jump in yields and some of the half-point bets to reverse. That had not happened by the November 12 close. For a sound-money reader, a 5% Treasury yield is the competition an ounce faces. Yet a Fed official saying "inflation pressure is up, not down" is part of why many people want metal at all. Both are true at once.

How do Federal Reserve interest rate expectations affect gold prices?

Gold pays no interest, so it competes with what bonds pay after inflation. CNBC tied the November 12 jump in the 10-year yield to rising oil and expectations of more Fed hikes.

The dollar is the other channel in this week's reports. On November 12, Wyckoff tied hawkish Fed remarks and the dollar rally to lower gold prices, CNBC reported.

Swings in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and the US interest rate outlook came with gold market volatility this week. Spot gold fell more than 2% on two of the three days, Kitco's late readings show.

Why are gold prices recovering today?

On the evidence here, spot gold was bouncing after a three-session decline. Its 0.78% gain at 9:19 p.m. ET on November 12 had won back about 27% of that day's drop, by CMR's calculation.

No published report had explained the evening move by that time, and CMR offers no reason of its own.

What does a 5% Treasury yield mean for someone living on savings?

For someone living on savings, the trade-off between income and a metal that pays none became plainer this week. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.10%, Treasury data show. The 10-year real yield, the return after expected inflation, was 2.86%.

An ounce of gold pays no interest or dividend, so each rise in those yields lifts the income a gold owner gives up. That describes this week's cost of owning metal, and it says nothing about where gold or yields go next.

What is the gold price forecast for 2026?

Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Société Générale and BlackRock, all quoted in this article, sell research, funds or other financial services, and American Gold Exchange, quoted through CNBC, sells precious metals. Every forecast below is the named institution's estimate, never CMR's.

Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 on November 5, Reuters reported via Mining Weekly. It also cut its end-2027 forecast to $4,800 from $5,400, citing the Fed's more hawkish stance. Both are year-end targets, and CMR covered the cut in its Goldman Sachs gold price forecast post.

In its October 28 Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank put yearly averages for gold at $4,600 in 2026, $4,250 in 2027 and $4,000 in 2028. CMR checked those figures in its post on the World Bank gold and silver price prediction.

A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders, published October 27, returned a median 2026 yearly average of $4,495. Its 2027 median was $4,650, also a yearly average. HSBC on October 1 cut its 2026 average to $4,490 and its 2027 average to $4,825, both yearly averages, Reuters reported.

Two cautions apply to every gold price forecast for 2026 here. A 2026 yearly average includes the high prices of early 2026, so it can sit far above today's price without implying a rise from here. Each forecast was also published on or before November 6, before the CPI report and the three-session decline, so none reflects them.

What did Société Générale and BlackRock say this week?

In a November 12 note, Société Générale analysts estimated net buying of about $3.3 billion in gold futures, Kitco News reported. The buying would come from annual commodity index rebalancing from January 8 to 14, after a 13% drop in precious metals prices this year. It is a mechanical estimate of January fund flows, not a price call, and SocGen did not say it would lift prices.

Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, took a wider view of the precious metals market in an analysis published November 10, Kitco News reported. "While near-term headwinds have emerged, many of the longer-term structural drivers supporting precious metals remain in place, leaving investors to weigh a more balanced outlook than earlier this year." It is an opinion on the gold investment outlook, not a forecast.

Where does silver fit?

Kitco's late spot silver reading was $49.930 on November 12, down 3.13%. At 9:19 p.m. ET, spot silver was $50.39 bid, up 0.88%. The gold/silver ratio is the number of ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. At 9:19 p.m. ET it was about 77.5, by CMR's calculation from Kitco's live bids.

What to watch: which dates come next for the gold market outlook?

• Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the US producer price index (PPI) for October. CNBC said it was expected to show a 0.4% rise after 1.3% in September.
• Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Income and Outlays for October, including the PCE price index the Fed watches.
• Friday, December 4, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: the November jobs report.
• Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting, with the rate decision and new economic projections on December 9.
• Thursday, December 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET: November CPI, released the day after the Fed decides.

FAQ

Why are gold prices recovering today?

As of 9:19 p.m. ET on November 12, spot gold had bounced only part of the way back. Kitco showed it at $3,906.70, up 0.78% on the day. By CMR's calculation, that won back about 27% of the November 12 drop. No published report had explained the evening move by then.

What is the gold price forecast for 2026?

Each figure is the institution's own estimate. Goldman Sachs set a year-end 2026 target of $4,150 an ounce on November 5. The World Bank's 2026 yearly average is $4,600, and a Reuters poll's median 2026 yearly average was $4,495. All were published before the October CPI report.

How do Federal Reserve interest rate expectations affect gold prices?

Gold pays no interest, so it competes with what bonds pay after inflation. CNBC tied the November 12 jump in the 10-year Treasury yield to rising oil and expectations of more Fed hikes. Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange tied hawkish Fed remarks and a stronger dollar to lower gold prices, CNBC reported.

Sources

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