Goldman Sees Copper at $15,600 a Ton by December 2027, but Flags Downside Risks

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Friday, November 13, 2026

Goldman Sachs expects London Metal Exchange copper prices to reach $15,600 a ton by December 2027, in the bank's base case. It is Goldman's end of period estimate, the headline number in its copper price forecast 2027, from an outlook released November 12. In a note the same day, Goldman said the risks to its 2027 average of $15,400 a ton are to the downside.

Friday's market showed the pressure in the price. Benchmark LME three month copper was down 1.6% to $13,371.50 a metric ton as of 1700 GMT, Tom Daly of Reuters reported, via MINING.COM.

It hit a session low of $13,358, its weakest since July 17. The contract was on course for a 2.9% drop on the week, a fifth weekly decline in a row, and the steepest weekly loss since the week ended March 20.

Will copper reach $15,600 per ton by 2027?

Investing.com, in a November 13 report generated with AI support and reviewed by an editor, used that "expects" wording for the December 2027 figure. A Cailian Press account of the same outlook, translated into English on Elebank, said the 2027 average was $15,400 a ton, rising to $15,600 by year end. That Elebank item is a translated secondary report of a Goldman client note.

By CMR's calculation, LME three month copper would need to rise about 16.7% from Friday's $13,371.50 to reach that level. That 1700 GMT stamp is 12:00 p.m. ET.

Goldman itself, in a note quoted by Reuters, put the LME copper price at $13,588 a ton. By CMR's calculation, $15,600 is about 14.8% above that reading.

In a note the same day, Goldman flagged downside risks to its 2027 average of $15,400 a ton. If positioning stays at current levels, the bank said copper could average around $14,600 a ton in 2027, a yearly average. In a lower case, it estimated a 2027 average of around $14,500 a ton. It saw further downside if most US inventories flowed back to the rest of the world.

Those scenario figures are yearly averages. The $15,600 figure is an end of period estimate. Other 2027 forecasts differ, including Bank of America's yearly average of $15,250 a tonne and the World Bank's yearly average of $13,000. No source cited here can know the price in December 2027, and CMR does not give advice.

Why is Goldman Sachs raising its copper price outlook?

The question assumes a raise this week, but Goldman's raise came on October 20, 2026. CMR's October 22 post covered that raise in detail.

Reuters reported that Goldman raised its end 2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 a ton. It also raised its 2027 average to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. The bank expected deficits outside the US of 950,000 tons in 2026. It expected deficits of 220,000 tons in 2027.

Prior figures, reported by FT Mercati citing Reuters, were $13,735 for end 2026. The prior 2027 average was $13,800. On that earlier day, LME three month copper was $14,339.50 a ton, Reuters reported. COMEX copper inventories were about 718,200 tonnes the session before, amid stockpiling ahead of possible US import tariffs.

On November 12, Goldman held its forecast for a 2027 average of $15,400 a ton. It added a December 2027 figure of $15,600, according to a translated secondary report of the client note.

The November 12 copper market outlook restated the tight-market case. US tariff uncertainty, the translated report said, prompted firms to import and stockpile copper early. Stricter Chinese rules on scrap invoices pushed wire, rod and tube makers to use more refined copper. Goldman expects both trends to persist into 2027, keeping the refined market outside the United States in deficit.

A separate note the same day flagged downside risks from AI related positioning and lower US tariff expectations. "The main risk to our forecast stems from positioning rather than physical demand," Goldman said. Reuters added that investors had grown more cautious about the AI boom, amid concerns that a Democrat controlled Congress could slow AI investment and data center expansion.

CMR's October 29 post looked at that AI positioning debate when it first moved the price. Goldman also said the Democratic sweep does not eliminate the tariff risk.

What did Friday's copper market trends show?

Reuters' 1700 GMT price was one of several readings on Friday. The official record, from Westmetall, which republishes LME official prices, sat a little higher. The official cash settlement on November 13 was $13,610. The official three month settlement was $13,545, and LME copper stocks were 329,100 tonnes.

By CMR's calculation, that three month official settlement was up 8.3% from its January 2 level of $12,511. Bloomberg, via an Aegis Hedging brief, said copper "notched a record in September" and "remains about 8% higher this year."

The highest LME official three month settlement of 2026 was $14,760, on September 22, according to Westmetall.

Goldman read the recent slide as a positioning move. In a note quoted by Reuters, the bank said the LME copper price had fallen around 7% over the past month, to $13,588 a ton. It said the drop was largely driven by volatility in AI related equities, which sold off after the Democratic sweep.

Goldman said the correction reflected positioning rather than loosening fundamentals, and pointed to limited copper supply in China. Reuters added that sentiment worsened after Nvidia's chief executive resigned on Thursday.

The China figures were tight even as the London price fell. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks fell 18.3% this week to 27,642 tons, Reuters reported, the lowest since December 2023. The Yangshan premium, paid on top of LME prices, hit a record $285 a ton on Friday.

COMEX copper futures as quoted by Yahoo Finance closed at $6.0635 a pound on Friday, with the last trade at 4:59 p.m. ET.

That was down 1.92% on the day, by CMR's calculation, from $6.1825 on November 12. By CMR's calculation, it was also 7.7% above the 2025 final close of $5.63. The 2026 high close on this series was $6.8035, on September 9.

What is the copper price forecast for 2027?

Each copper price forecast for 2027 below is a labeled estimate. Goldman Sachs holds a 2027 yearly average of $15,400 a ton. It also has an end of period figure of $15,600 for December 2027. Its downside scenarios are yearly averages of about $14,600 and about $14,500.

Bank of America's copper price prediction, as of October 1, is a 2027 yearly average of $15,250 a tonne. It also includes a 2026 yearly average of $13,278 a tonne. Its long term forecast was raised 20% to $12,000 a tonne. The bank expects a deficit in 2026 and a smaller surplus in 2027, Finwire reported.

The World Bank's figures are yearly averages from its October 28 Commodity Markets Outlook, with a data cutoff of October 14. Copper is put at $13,200 a tonne in 2026. The 2027 yearly average is $13,000. The 2028 average is $12,500. The 2025 average was $9,947. CMR's October 28 World Bank post covers that outlook in more detail.

Deutsche Bank says copper prices could reach $10 a pound by mid 2027, and CMR has not converted that figure. Citi on November 6 cut its near term forecast to $13,300 a ton from $14,500. That forecast covers the next 0 to 3 months. A secondary report on November 7 said Citi expects surpluses in 2027 and 2028. Each figure is the named institution's estimate.

Goldman's end 2026 forecast of $14,700 a ton, as of October 20, has not been restated in the November notes CMR has seen.

Why do some banks see scarce metal while the ICSG sees a surplus?

The split is about where the metal sits, and who can obtain it. Deutsche Bank's Daniel Ghali, head of metals research, told MINING.COM this week: "We are probably today in the scarcest copper environment since the 1980s."

He used that copper supply shortage language in the sense of metal that is hard to reach. "It's not that demand is so strong at the moment," Ghali said. "We think demand is resilient, but it's not a demand story per se. It's actually a liquidity crisis that's in the making."

Ghali cited a US Commerce Department recommendation for a 15% tariff on refined copper from January 2027, rising later to 30%. CMR has not seen the recommendation itself, so that date and those rates are attributed to Ghali. He said a recession is the biggest threat to the bank's view.

Reuters, via Mining Weekly, reported the International Copper Study Group forecast of October 14. The group sees a refined surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026. That surplus widens to 368,000 tonnes in 2027.

Its copper demand forecast, measured as apparent refined usage, calls for growth of about 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% the following year. Refined production is seen up about 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% the following year. Mine production is seen up 1.3% in 2026 and 3.1% the following year.

The ICSG cited demand from the energy transition, urbanisation, data centres and AI, and new semiconductor capacity. A refined surplus can coexist with scarce reachable metal when stocks sit in the United States and China, out of reach of buyers elsewhere. Goldman and Deutsche Bank both make that point.

Mine supply risk is part of Goldman's tight-market case. Copper Mining Stocks: Ivanhoe Cuts 2027 Forecast is one recent example of a producer revising its plans.

The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 discusses prices through April 2026 and is a long term view. On global copper demand, the IEA says copper records the largest volume growth, adding about 7 million tonnes to 2040. That growth is driven by its central role in electricity networks and next generation technologies. The IEA also says the projected copper supply deficit in 2035 narrowed from around 30% to 25% in its base case.

How I read it. Goldman did not change its mind this week. It added a date to its number, then told clients what could knock it off. Its case for a higher price is about metal that is hard to reach: stocks parked in the United States, thin stocks in China, and mines that keep missing. Its case for worry is about money: funds that bought copper as an AI trade, and a tariff that may now be less likely. Those can both be true. Friday's market sided with the worry, and China's premiums sided with the fundamentals. A forecast two Decembers away rests on conditions, and those conditions moved this week.

Who has a stake in these views?

Goldman Sachs, BofA, Citi and Deutsche Bank sell research, and Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank trade commodities. The ICSG is an intergovernmental body of producing and consuming countries. The IEA and the World Bank are intergovernmental.

What to watch: which dates could test Goldman's copper view?

• Monday, November 16, 2026: the delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders report. It shows fund positioning in COMEX copper, the risk Goldman named.
• Tuesday, December 8 and Wednesday, December 9, 2026: the Federal Reserve meeting. The rate decision comes on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Bloomberg tied part of this week's metals weakness to hawkish Fed comments and a stronger dollar.
• Thursday, December 31, 2026: the last day of the year. It closes the window for Goldman's end 2026 forecast of $14,700, as of October 20.
• January 2027: the start date Ghali cited for a possible 15% US tariff on refined copper. No final decision had been reported as of November 13, per CMR's sources.
• Friday, December 31, 2027: the date Goldman's $15,600 forecast refers to.

FAQ: what are readers asking about Goldman's copper forecast?

Will copper reach $15,600 per ton by 2027?

Goldman Sachs expects London Metal Exchange copper prices to reach $15,600 a ton by December 2027. That figure is the bank's base case end of period forecast, from its 2027 commodities outlook released November 12. By CMR's calculation, LME three month copper would need to rise about 16.7% from Friday's $13,371.50 to reach that level. In a note the same day, Goldman flagged downside risks to its 2027 average of $15,400 a ton. If positioning stays at current levels, the bank said copper could average around $14,600 a ton in 2027, a yearly average. In a lower case, it estimated a 2027 average of around $14,500 a ton. It saw further downside if most US inventories flowed back to the rest of the world. Other 2027 forecasts differ, including Bank of America's yearly average of $15,250 a tonne and the World Bank's yearly average of $13,000. No source cited here can know the price in December 2027, and CMR does not give advice.

Why is Goldman Sachs raising its copper price outlook?

Goldman's raise came on October 20, 2026. Reuters reported that Goldman raised its end 2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 a ton. It also raised its 2027 average to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. The bank expected deficits outside the US of 950,000 tons in 2026. It expected deficits of 220,000 tons in 2027. Prior figures, reported by FT Mercati citing Reuters, were $13,735 for end 2026. The prior 2027 average was $13,800. On November 12, Goldman held its forecast for a 2027 average of $15,400 a ton. It added a December 2027 figure of $15,600, according to a translated secondary report of the client note. A separate note the same day flagged downside risks from AI related positioning and lower US tariff expectations.

What is the copper price forecast for 2027?

Each copper price forecast for 2027 below is a labeled estimate. Goldman Sachs holds a 2027 yearly average of $15,400 a ton. It also has an end of period figure of $15,600 for December 2027. Its downside scenarios are yearly averages of about $14,600 and about $14,500. Bank of America's yearly average for 2027 is $15,250 a tonne, as of October 1. The World Bank's yearly average for 2027 is $13,000 a tonne, from its October 28 outlook. Deutsche Bank says copper prices could reach $10 a pound by mid 2027, and CMR has not converted that figure. Citi on November 6 cut its near term forecast to $13,300 a ton from $14,500. That forecast covers the next 0 to 3 months. A secondary report on November 7 said Citi expects surpluses in 2027 and 2028. Each figure is the named institution's estimate.

Sources

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