By Ben McGregor
Saturday, November 14, 2026
On a Sprott Money podcast published Thursday, November 12, Charlie Garcia talked about central banks buying gold at five times their old pace. He was quoting Goldman Sachs. The bank's nowcast puts central bank gold purchases at about 85 tonnes a month, against a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes.
By CMR's calculation, 85 divided by 17 is 5.0, so the arithmetic holds. The 85 tonne figure is a nowcast, and the 17 tonne figure is a long run monthly average. The World Gold Council's third quarter count sits beside those estimates, and it is a different measure.
Garcia is an investor and author. He appeared as a guest on Ask the Expert, hosted by Craig Hemke. The host said the episode was recorded on November 11, and that "this content is provided by Sprott Money, bullion dealer, sprottmoney.com."
Are central banks really buying gold at five times their previous pace?
On Goldman's own nowcast against its pre-2022 average, the five times line holds. Garcia said, word for word: "Goldman says they're buying about 85 tons a month of gold. Before 2022, it was 17. Now it's 85. Five times the old pace." The podcast uses "tons." Goldman and the World Gold Council use tonnes, and this article follows them in CMR's voice.
The same 85 tonne nowcast appears in Goldman's later work. Strategists led by Lina Thomas said so in a November 5 note, reported by Kitco on November 13. That nowcast puts current purchases at 85 tonnes a month on a seasonally adjusted three month basis.
The bank expects purchases to average 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027. By CMR's calculation, that 60 tonne forecast is about 3.5 times the 17 tonne average. A single month estimate is different again.
InvestingLive, reporting a Goldman note dated Monday, October 19, said central banks bought an estimated 79 tonnes in August, "more than four times that historical rate." By CMR's calculation, 79 divided by 17 is about 4.6.
The World Gold Council's official picture is a quarterly total. In its Gold Demand Trends for the third quarter, dated November 3, the council put central bank demand at 321 tonnes. By CMR's calculation, that is about 107 tonnes a month. Reported buying was 120 tonnes. CMR does not compute a ratio between the council's figures and Goldman's.
How does Goldman measure central bank gold purchases?
A nowcast is an estimate of recent buying, built before all official reports are in.
InvestingLive said Goldman "builds its monthly gauge from trade and flow data instead of relying only on central bank disclosures."
As a result, "its numbers often run above reported figures and can be revised as more data become available."
SquawkNews, summarizing the same October note, quoted Goldman as saying: "On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, purchases are running at 85 tonnes per month."
The sources do not state which three months that 85 tonne reading covers. The October note paired it with August data. CMR's October 20 post covered that August estimate.
The November 5 note still put the nowcast at 85 tonnes a month on the same seasonally adjusted three month basis. It also gave the 60 tonne monthly average as a forecast for 2026 and 2027. Those are different Goldman figures: one is a nowcast, one is a forecast, and one is a pre-2022 average.
What are the central bank gold buying trends in 2026?
The World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends, dated November 3, 2026, put first quarter central bank demand at 57.7 tonnes. Second quarter demand was 296.3 tonnes, and third quarter demand was 321.2 tonnes, from Table 1 of the main report. Those are estimates by Metals Focus and the council, and they include unreported buying. The data run to September 30, 2026.
Central bank demand in the third quarter was 321 tonnes, up 42% from 226.3 tonnes a year earlier, the council said. That total was also above the five year quarterly average of 227 tonnes. Year to date buying reached 675 tonnes, 6% above the same period of 2025. CMR's November 5 post covered those third quarter figures.
By CMR's calculation, 321 tonnes in a quarter is about 107 tonnes a month. Over nine months, 675 tonnes is 75 tonnes a month, by CMR's calculation. Those monthly rates are CMR's conversions of the council's quarterly and year to date totals.
Reported buying was 120 tonnes in the third quarter. "Unreported activity accounted for around 63% of the quarter's demand, continuing the pattern evident since 2022," the council said. Reported country figures are based on the most recent IMF and respective central bank data. The People's Bank of China added 63 tonnes in the quarter, and the National Bank of Poland added 40 tonnes. Russia reported a 19 tonne decline.
China's later official data cover October, after the council's quarter ended. China Daily, on Saturday, November 7, said official gold reserves rose by 830,000 ounces to 78.3 million ounces at the end of October, citing the People's Bank of China. That was the 24th straight month of purchases, and the largest monthly increase since September 2023. By CMR's calculation, 830,000 ounces is about 25.8 tonnes. Bloomberg reported additions of about 129 tonnes in the first ten months of 2026. Those official holdings are one country's reported central bank gold reserves.
Why are central banks increasing their gold reserves?
The World Gold Council tied the third quarter buying to strategy, at prices it still called historically elevated. It said this suggested that "longer-term strategic considerations, such as diversification and risk management, have remained the primary driver of demand."
Goldman Sachs, in the November 5 note from strategists led by Lina Thomas, pointed to reserve allocations. Emerging market central banks, and China in particular, "are still underweight gold compared to their reasonable long-term allocation projections," Kitco reported. Developed market central banks have stayed on the sidelines. The strategists wrote: "But the debate is increasingly shifting from whether to own gold to where to store it, pointing to broader concerns around reserve security and cross-country trust."
Garcia framed central bank buying in his own terms. "So that's not an investment decision. It's a trust decision," he said on the podcast. That is his opinion.
Where does this leave global gold demand and the gold market outlook?
For global gold demand, the World Gold Council put total third quarter demand, including over the counter, at 1,369 tonnes, 1% lower than a year earlier. Gold investment demand was mixed. Gold ETFs added 211 tonnes after second quarter outflows. Bar and coin demand fell 19% to 268 tonnes. Jewellery demand fell 17% to 313 tonnes. The quarterly LBMA average price was $4,262.20. CMR's November 3 post covered those demand totals.
The council's outlook, word for word, was: "Central bank buying likely to at least match 2025 after surprisingly strong Q3." That is the council's outlook, with no forecast figure attached.
Each gold price forecast 2026 figure below is the named institution's estimate. In the November 5 note, Goldman Sachs put end 2026 gold at $4,150 an ounce. The prior end 2026 figure was $4,650. Its end 2027 figure went to $4,800 from $5,400, both end of period estimates. The strategists wrote that "structurally strong central bank demand" drives most of the 15% price upside they forecast by the end of 2027. CMR's Goldman post covers that note.
A Cailian Press account, translated on Elebank, covered Goldman's November 12 commodities outlook. It put the end 2027 figure at $4,650, down from $4,800. CMR could not confirm that later figure in an English primary source, so both Goldman end 2027 figures are shown with their dates.
Standard Chartered, in a November 10 report, forecast a fourth quarter 2026 average of $4,650, Kitco reported. The same report put a first quarter 2027 average at $4,850. The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook is dated October 28. It gives a 2026 yearly average of $4,600. Its 2027 yearly average is $4,250. Each of these estimates was published before Friday's close.
Markets were closed on Saturday, November 14, so the prices below are Friday's close. Kitco's Friday market report had spot gold near $3,883.40, up $7.00 or 0.18% on the day. Kitco's weekly survey story said spot gold fell 5.00% on the week. Kitco's live page still showed $3,883.40 bid on Saturday morning.
Goldman's November 5 note said its base case assumes the Fed's hawkish shift, and another December hike, will restrain investors' debasement concerns. The strategists said the setup resembles 2022, when central banks "provided a strong structural bid" but higher rates weighed on investors. Kitco's Friday report put the odds of a quarter point hike on December 9 at 89%.
How I read it. The five times line is true on one bank's estimate and one baseline, and it is a fair headline for a podcast. For a reader, the useful part is what sits under it. Goldman's number is a model of buying that official reports often miss. The World Gold Council's own count says most of this year's buying was unreported too. Both point the same way: official buying has stayed strong this year. Neither says what the price does next, and Goldman itself expects investors, not central banks, to set the pace while rates rise. Strong official buying estimates and a falling gold price are sitting side by side this month. For a sound money reader, that is the point to sit with.
Who has a stake in these views?
Sprott Money is a bullion dealer, and the podcast is its content. Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered sell research. The World Gold Council is a market development body funded by gold mining companies.
What to watch on the official buying story?
- Monday, November 16, 2026. Kitco's weekly survey story flagged comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a conference in San Francisco.
- Wednesday, November 18, 2026. Minutes of the Fed's October meeting are due, according to Kitco's Friday market report.
- Monday, December 7, 2026, expected. China has been releasing official reserve data around the 7th of the month. The October figures came on Saturday, November 7.
- Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The Fed's rate decision is due at 2:00 p.m. ET, at the end of its December 8 and 9 meeting.
- Early 2027, date not yet announced. The World Gold Council will publish Gold Demand Trends for the fourth quarter and full year 2026. That report will test the council's view that buying will at least match 2025.
FAQ: what are readers asking about central bank gold purchases?
What are the central bank gold buying trends in 2026?
The World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends, dated November 3, 2026, put third quarter central bank demand at 321.2 tonnes. Year to date buying reached 675 tonnes, 6% above the same period of 2025. Unreported activity accounted for around 63% of the quarter's demand, the council said. China Daily, citing the People's Bank of China, said official gold reserves rose by 830,000 ounces in October.
Why are central banks increasing their gold reserves?
The World Gold Council said "longer-term strategic considerations, such as diversification and risk management, have remained the primary driver" of third quarter demand. Goldman Sachs strategists led by Lina Thomas, in a November 5 note reported by Kitco, said emerging market central banks are still underweight gold against long term allocation projections. They wrote that the debate is increasingly shifting from whether to own gold to where to store it. Charlie Garcia, a guest on Sprott Money's Ask the Expert podcast, described central bank buying as a trust decision, which is his opinion.
Are central banks really buying gold at five times their previous pace?
On Goldman's own nowcast against its pre-2022 monthly average, yes. Charlie Garcia, a guest on a Sprott Money podcast, quoted Goldman at about 85 tons a month against 17 before 2022. By CMR's calculation, 85 divided by 17 is 5.0. The World Gold Council's third quarter count is a different measure, and CMR does not compute a ratio between it and Goldman's figures.
Sources
- Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold at 5 Times Their Previous Pace, Sprott Money News, Ask the Expert, host Craig Hemke, guest Charlie Garcia, published November 12, 2026, at 2:08 p.m. ET. https://exa.ai/library/podcast/n6bn88c1q1p/episode/2btqzkcpk8x
- Goldman Sachs estimates central banks bought 79 tonnes of gold in August, led by China (Eamonn Sheridan), InvestingLive, reporting a Goldman note of October 19, 2026. https://investinglive.com/commodities/goldman-sachs-estimates-central-banks-bought-79-tonnes-of-gold-in-august-led-by-china/
- Goldman Sachs: Central Bank Gold Purchasing, SquawkNews, October 20, 2026. https://squawknews.com/news/522987-goldman-sachs-central-bank-gold-purchasing
- Goldman Sachs cuts year-end gold price target to $4,150/oz, 2027 target to $4,800/oz (Ernest Hoffman), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/goldman-sachs-cuts-year-end-gold-price-target-4150oz-2027-target-4800oz
- Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026, central banks section, World Gold Council, November 3, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026/central-banks
- Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026, World Gold Council, November 3, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026
- China's official gold reserves see largest monthly increase in over 3 years, China Daily, November 7, 2026. https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202611/07/WS6aef073be4b03ebf8519b105.html
- China Extends Gold-Buying Streak to Two Years as Prices Drop, Bloomberg, November 7, 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-07/china-extends-gold-buying-streak-to-two-years-as-prices-drop
- Gold posts steep weekly loss as Treasury yields rise and Fed tightening bets firm (Kitco NewsWire), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/gold-posts-steep-weekly-loss-treasury-yields-rise-fed-tightening-bets
- Wall Street bears abound after inflation sours Fed outlook, Main Street sentiment turns mixed (Ernest Hoffman), Kitco News, November 13, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-13/wall-street-bears-abound-after-inflation-sours-fed-outlook-main-street
- Live gold prices, Kitco, Friday close reading still shown on Saturday, November 14, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/price
- Gold prices find solid support at $4,000 as Standard Chartered sees rally to $4,650 by year-end (Neils Christensen), Kitco News, November 11, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-11/gold-prices-find-solid-support-4000-standard-chartered-sees-rally-4650-year
- Commodity Markets Outlook, forecast tables, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
- Goldman Sachs outlook for commodities in 2027 (Cailian Press), Elebank, November 13, 2026. https://news.platform.elebank.com/en/post/1004460438/goldman-sachs-outlook-for-commodities-in-2027-energy-prices-may
- Meeting calendars and information, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed November 14, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
